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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1333

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by drbama View Post
    I agree that an economic collapse is very scary. I didn't live through the Great Depression, but the pictures and stories tell of miserable times. I have no idea if or when a collapse will occur, but if it were, how could I personally prepare for this situation? This is a serious question. Horde cash, pay off home, move tsp balance to G fund before collapse? I've had the same thoughts that the overwhelming debt would lead to conditions like those in Greece, where ultimately salaries were slashed and pensions were reduced. I welcome any ideas on how best to prepare. Thanks.
    --I recommend having some cash available...in the previous Greece and/or Spain crisis, they limited the amount of funds you could withdraw daily from ATMs. Those involved in the financial crisis and Lehman bankruptcy instructed family members to withdraw as much as they could from ATMs when they were unsure whether or not the banks would open the following day.
    --I believe it is always a good idea to minimize debt...it is a great sense of relief when you finally pay off a mortgage.
    --It is great if you can get out of the market before a crash, but it is hard to catch a falling knife without some pain. You can always keep a certain amount in the G Fund that you cannot lose but you also don't gain much in the mean time. If we go into hyper inflationary period, the value of cash and treasuries will take a hit, so there is always risk with any choice you make. We will all be up a creek.
    --Those who write about financial meltdown all advise investing in precious metals as a store of wealth. I've haven't invested in any gold or silver but I do have a 1 ounce Krugerand necklace, other jewelry and some silver coins in worse case scenario. Note: there are some that have been predicting the worst for many years, eventually they may be right but I'm not sure if or when it will ever be as bad as the doomsayers predict.

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  3. #1334

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Wow that was fast. Going back to my 11/21 post, that 2240 line in the sand for this week (per Peter Eliades' very long term trend line going back decades) was hit today.

    So now it's time to see if there's any big reaction downwards. I don't see why there would be fundamentally, but you never know with Ms. Market.

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  5. #1335

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    This guy must be reading the musings of Tsunami LOL...several times this year I've mentioned Craig Johnson's call for the S&P 500 to reach 2350 by year-end....and more recently I've been mentioning that very long-term trend line that we just busted through yesterday (which seems very bullish to me)...and the next IFT in my seasonal timing system happens to be 12/29/16.

    Well, this post puts together all three of those. 2350 on 12/29? Bingo! And by coincidence 2350 would also get me to my minimum TSP retirement goal at year-end.
    https://investingintelligent.com/201...me-the-market/

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  7. #1336

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    What is that, 4%?

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  9. #1337

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Yep, about 4% more. That seems like a lot to ask in the 15 remaining trading days in 2016 when the index's are already so overbought, but that doesn't seem to be bothering anyone currently. Maybe the QQQ's and biotech's will get in gear and push it up there.

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  11. #1338

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Partaaaaay!
    http://www.zazzle.com/dow_20_000_tru...96629823736780
    A sell the news reaction tomorrow after they bring out the party hats?

    There are still so many people on the sidelines though, I think the sell-off might be just another one-day drop then the run to Craig Johnson's 2350 continues.

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  13. #1339

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Just doing some simple math...

    Tom shows the G fund return today as 0.0066%...multiply that by 365 days, that's 2.4%/year (which also coincides with the current TSP loan rate of 2.375%, I've noticed the two seem to track each other)....meanwhile the F fund is now down to a +2.00% return for 2016.

    I think I just answered my question about whether to consider the F fund for my next move out of stocks...although, boy the MACD and RSI divergences sure seem to suggest a bounce in bonds is near...
    AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
    ...I'm never good at catching falling knives though...hmmm.

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  15. #1340

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Things continue to look up for 2017...
    https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-...tment-strategy

    Wazzu vs. Gophers are up next in Bowl mania. Go Cougs!

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  17. #1341

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Sorry Tsunami, the Gophers hung in there.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.


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  19. #1342

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I was doing some year-end cleanup today. I came across a newsletter from Harry Dent from January 2014, back from when I subscribed to him for one year. I've read two of his books from years back, and am a 100% believer in his demographic theories...but his problem has always been that he over-predicts what the impacts would be. In that January 2014 newsletter he was calling for an immediate market crash in early 2014...he's still calling for the same thing, so this made me chuckle...but who knows, someday he might get the last laugh. I'm just glad I've stopped investing based on fear though. Have a system and stick to it, that's my plan for 2017.
    Why you should listen to Harry Dent even if you don

    I think Avi Gilburt is much more likely to be right: The next target for the S&P 500 is 2,350 - MarketWatch

    The tracker shows otherwise since I missed posting a couple of IFTs in time last year, but my 2017 return was 8.96%. Not great, just above the middle of the tracker, but a great improvement from the -2.6% I was at on 6/30...and above my annual 8% goal... so I have to be happy with that. I'll set my 2017 goal at 8% again.

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  21. #1343

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Tsunami you just gave me my New Year's Resolution. "Have a system and stick to it"...Thanks man!!!
    Why is it when markets go on sale people get afraid, but when retailers have sales, people are spending money in abundance?

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  23. #1344

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Pssst... hey RF, TS... I need a system...
    100% G COB 27 April; was 70% C, 30% S COB 11 Apr; was 100% G COB 6 Apr; was 80% C, 20% S COB 26 Mar; was 100% G COB 13 Mar

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
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