Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

DBA – Thanks, and yes I think the market will turn up at some point next week. I sure hope so anyway, and there’s so much fear now it could really scream higher: Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

Guchi – I saw your earlier posts and there’s nothing wrong with going that route. According to this study Old Age and the Decline in Financial Literacy by Michael S. Finke, John S. Howe, Sandra J. Huston :: SSRN , investment “literacy” declines about 1.65% per year after age 60, but financial confidence does not decline. My dad turned over his accounts to Fidelity at about age 80 and is happy with the results. Overconfidence in investing is not a good thing, but I’m such a die-hard do-it-yourselfer that I was determined to come up with a simple system that I could deploy myself and maintain well into my golden years. The jury is still out, but I think I’ve succeeded. For the rest of the masses though, buy and hold or turning accounts over to professionals should do well enough. I just prefer to have only myself to blame if things go south.

Skorcher – I’ve designed my system to work around the TSP rules. There were only two cases in the last 12 years when my system required a 3^rd trade at the end of the month (in the summer-time, when my system gets weird and starts going going back and for from stocks to bonds every two weeks), so in this case I would just wait until the first of the following month to make the move. At the very most my system makes 14 moves per year, usually 12. So as Cactus said the 2 IFT limit is not an issue. Using ETFs completely gets around this monthly IFT limit issue (but adds a new dilemma since you can make the moves at any time during trading hours, so you have to fret over exactly when to make the move as the market gyrates), but it doesn’t change the rules for my system...at least not yet, I might consider new tweaks to the EFT system...but for now it's enough work just to evaluate using different funds with different brokers, trying to determine the broker I'd want to use (I suspect Vanguard will be the winner and will look at them next). Another one of my motivations for creating my strategies was to avoid the annoying noon eastern time IFT deadline, with my system this is no longer a concern, I simply enter the IFT on the scheduled date the evening before or the morning of the day the strategy calls for a move. Easy, no more worries about news, technicals, Elliott wave patterns (though I admit to tweaking my IFTs by one day the last few times due to the wave patterns, and each time this has cost me a small amount of money since my guess was wrong, so I really just need to stick with the system and stop trying to outguess it...an occasional kick in the butt from my wife helps with that too LOL)...so I no longer stress about about gurus calling for crashes, etc. To me that’s all just entertainment now and I’ll be able to focus on other things from now on, and during retirement.

Cactus – Oh my, hadn’t heard that story. I see the Creamland trucks driving around ABQ daily and just figured that would be a fitting way to go since I love ice cream so much…though at my age I’m having to lay off of it pretty much completely in the battle of the bulge.

Thanks for sharing your personal knowledge. It's a lot for me to think about and explore. Congratulations on your new endeavor!

Hi TS. Congrats on the new job! Well done!

First time I've posted in over 2 weeks. Finally gor the new hard drive and new OS installed on the computer after living through malware hell.

Looking forward to that upper thrust in the markets after the election. I think Wall Street is running scared so don't expect much until after the votes are cast. Then we'll get the real tell...

All the best.

FS

I've reading pretty much nothing but gloom all weekend...the bears are drooling and posting charts predicting a crash. But looking at reality, many indicators are at significant buy levels, like this one...
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/sta...480192/photo/1

And if you listen to the Saturday podcasts on financialsense.com, Chris Puplava reported "very bullish" news that corporate earnings have in fact turned the corner and rose in the most recent corner. That's hugely bullish. The futures are way up, if that holds into Monday it's time to burn the shorts and all of those that have panicked into cash. I'll be watching to see if the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator triggers if we get a huge rally this week....step one has just completed with a drop below 0.4. Now if it rockets above 0.615 within 10 trading days that would give a very rare and very bullish signal:
!BINYBT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Washington State 69 Arizona 7
One week closer to that Apple Cup showdown with the Huskies

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Finally gor the new hard drive and new OS installed on the computer after living through malware hell.

next step, reinstall the speelcheeker. (love ya fog).

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Washington State 69 Arizona 7; One week closer to that Apple Cup showdown with the Huskies

GO COUGS! Nice not to be in "Pucker Mode" til end of Game, whew. Wazzu football in a bullish-pattern after some sideways movement with steady gains & not dropping below support or filling lower gaps, hopefully heading towards end of season peak.

Albuquerque - great place to come into this world & spend my 1st 8-yrs. I patronized the ice-cream trucks some & survived them.

TSP & Stocks/ETFs: I'm not nearly as knowledgeable or savvy as you - wish I had a good system like yours I could trust. TSP - too near retirement to be very bold; so I'm positive but only + a couple % on the year over year.
I've been playing with swing-trading Robinhood with some savings since start of 2016; up-down-up-down, not just above break-even; good experience though. Thanks again for your sharing and posts.

Yep, FAAM, I think the Cougs are in a wave 3 up in Elliott wave terms. It's about time!

I recently took the free 15-day trial subscription to Avi Gilbert's elliottwave.net. I didn't subscribe, too expensive and it's geared toward day-traders, but I did confirm that the dude is pretty good at Elliott wave's and I'll continue to follow him through his occasional posts on Marketwatch, like this one today:

Election or not, it

I agree with him. We have liftoff today and I like seeing a lot of folks doubting it, that will add fuel to the fire as they buy in later. Barring an election shocker tomorrow, the first stop is 2180ish, then a wave 2 pull-back, then comes a big and longer shot higher in what will be wave 3 of wave (iii), the biggest part of the move...2350 is still possible as soon as Christmas. Booyaa! Where's Birchtree when you need him?!

Wow, transports trading at record highs, and the Dow is just 37 points from a Dow Theory confirmation and also hitting a record high. This could really turn into a slaughter of the bears by tomorrow. My biggest worry is the route in the bond market though. That fast of a rise in rates will be a damper on the economy and the stock rally. The housing market could come to a screeching halt.

Time to say something before I drop off page 1...umm....er.....hmm, oh, chart 51 shows a clear triangle over the last few days, it's almost done and I think it will break down in another ~30 point drop after this wave e completes today. That would get the S&P to 2135ish, which would also be ~50% correction of the election rally.
Above the Green Line - Nov 14, 2016 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
There is still no shortage of gurus calling for a collapse, so that tells me we're going up after this next drop which drags in more bears trying to make their fortune.

Also, Cougs clobbered Cal as expected, now in first place and the longest winning streak since 1930 LOL. Go Cougs!...and Hawks! Nice to see Brady is human after all.

Well so much for that prediction (a drop out of the triangle)...it's threatening to break up instead, but if 2171 holds it could still work out that way....and small caps, transports and the Dow are finally taking a much needed light nap today...

I finally reached a major milestone in my TSP yesterday, a figure I'd been oh so close to several times then fell back...and since I've been following my system in late July I've moved from negative returns and near the very bottom of the AutoTracker to steadily passing most of the TSP funds and in the middle of the tracker...passed L2050 yesterday.... Go S fund!

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Please do let us know your results in looking at other funds for retirement. It would be very appreciated.

DBA - I finished crunching the numbers for Vanguard last weekend. The results were a bit surprising. I'd assumed that Vanguard's lower trading fees and supposedly slightly better performing funds would result in Vanguard being better than TD Ameritrade....Nope, it's a wash....after swapping out AGG for BND, and IVV for VOO, then going through over 3000 rows of data and changing the dividends and trading fees...the end result was almost identical. Apparently the performance for AGG and IVV is slightly better overall during the periods my system uses them, and that makes up for Vanguard's low fees, which are almost zero in fact with my system. So, since I think Vanguard's website and trading platform is so clunky (I've had IRA's and my kids accounts with them in the past and hated their website, it's so 1990s still) I'd probably stick with TD Ameritrade. I'm not sure I'll go to the next step and compare to Charles Schwab next since that will involve almost twice as much work...swapping out all four funds for C.S. funds and making all the dividend/trading fee changes by hand.