Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

Interesting that the seasonal strength in bonds starts on 4/26 per this commentary, the exact same date that the current "T" ends per my post yesterday:
Almanac Trader

I'm not convinced this rally will last that long though, but it looks like the momentum should carry through at least this Friday.

Also noticed that the I fund has just taken over as the leader of the pack for April (including today's gains in EFA so far of 1.4%), right on cue, since the I fund has been the strongest fund in April and July for many years now (on average, not always).

Glad to have my head above water and be in the green again, but am a nervous holder.

Hi TS: Just decided to follow you in the I Fund through Friday but a bit lighter (65%). Hope the rally continues through then.. Fingers crossed.

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Hi TS: Just decided to follow you in the I Fund through Friday but a bit lighter (65%). Hope the rally continues through then.. Fingers crossed.

FS

Yesterday I was a nervous holder, today I'm a very nervous holder since the technicals are getting pretty overbought (e.g., the S&P closing over the Bollinger Band yesterday was dangerous, and at the moment it's still riding above that band, something never lasts long...plus there's divergence in the RSI and MACD, a warning for sure) and I see so many capitulating buying-in now, like I did.

But, I've decided to make the gap fill at 59.52 from the close on 12/30/15 on EFA my target, another 1.6% higher... it won't get there today so I'm staying in. Plus in the Elliott waves I see the need for another small wave 4 then final wave 5 thrust up to near 2100, to the down trend line from the peaks last May and November.

This is interesting since the next Fed meeting announcement is on 4/27. So that's a bit of key news that aligns with that 4/26 date for the end of the T and also the start of seasonal bond strength. Is the Fed going to surprise and jack up rates 0.25% on 4/27 due to overconfidence from the levitating stock markets? Hmm.

The Fed Just Held An Emergency Meeting To Discuss Capital Markets | Zero Hedge

I don't know TS. I'm staying in through tomorrow, then jumping out for the rest of the month. If it goes up, I make a little. If it goes down I lose for the month. I got in way too late and hate chasing but the trend has been up and I'm hoping that trend stays alive through tomorrow closing. Best of luck to you TS. You and I both started the year off and got stung...but not as bad as JTH and he's done a good job of climbing out of the hole.

FS

Really good stuff from "Northy", he ought to charge for this stuff it's so good, but I'm glad he doesn't.

https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/1...g-the-monster/

Reading through it is terrifying, but I can see where his suggestion at the end that a "proper blow-off top" is quite possible. Monday's reaction to the oil news could be the key and the waves are saying it will be a positive (but short-lived) reaction. I see today as the end of wave 4 I was expecting, so all that's needed for the bearish view is a final wave 5 pop up...I just hope it's not really weak and finishes today or early Monday since I'm staying in....darn that noon IFT deadline!...but if the market really explodes higher Monday, and then the monster is fed again by the Fed on Wednesday, I could see a euphoric May rally all the way up to 2200ish major top.

I'm taking it one day at a time though, and the plan for today is to stay in for Monday before heading back to the F fund...hmm, I see old friend Bullet is moving there today....and I can't believe I shot up over 440 slots in the tracker over just the last two days. Wow, go I fund!

Originally Posted by Tsunami

Really good stuff from "Northy", he ought to charge for this stuff it's so good, but I'm glad he doesn't.

https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/1...g-the-monster/

Reading through it is terrifying, but I can see where his suggestion at the end that a "proper blow-off top" is quite possible. Monday's reaction to the oil news could be the key and the waves are saying it will be a positive (but short-lived) reaction. I see today as the end of wave 4 I was expecting, so all that's needed for the bearish view is a final wave 5 pop up...I just hope it's not really weak and finishes today or early Monday since I'm staying in....darn that noon IFT deadline!...but if the market really explodes higher Monday, and then the monster is fed again by the Fed on Wednesday, I could see a euphoric May rally all the way up to 2200ish major top.

I'm taking it one day at a time though, and the plan for today is to stay in for Monday before heading back to the F fund...hmm, I see old friend Bullet is moving there today....and I can't believe I shot up over 440 slots in the tracker over just the last two days. Wow, go I fund!

I read that article too, it gives one pause. The market action makes no sense considering the fundamentals and all the caries in the coal mine lying on their sides or feet up. I'm liking your scenario for next week. Give me that euphoric rally and a blow-off top and I'll take the summer off!

Hi TS. I bailed. I hope it plays out like you've suggested. Best of Luck!

BTW: Great article!

FS

Originally Posted by FogSailing

Hi TS. I bailed. I hope it plays out like you've suggested. Best of Luck!

BTW: Great article!

FS

Glad you locked in a small gain FS, though you never know with the unpredictable way they calculate the I fund closing price....So far the waves are playing out perfectly, a clear A-B-C corrective wave 4 from yesterday's peak, bottoming today at 2076.31... for a top next week, I'm looking for between 2093 to 2103. EFA has the same pattern and it looks like wave 4 ended at the close. It looks like I'll be exiting Monday and crossing my fingers that it closes green.

Have a great weekend.

Well, it’s do or die time for the bears. Today certainly seems like a good candidate for a top, and there’s just no room left to spare, so it’s now or never bears.

QQQ and EFA filled their gaps from late December today….and cycles would suggest a peak today:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/18845253/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%2011.00.08%20AM.png

But will the Fear Of Missing Out drive the market to record highs and beyond? We’ll know very soon,the futures are down a bit, but not enough to scare the bulls.

Meanwhile, I can’t help torturing myself. My seasonal timing system went into bear mode way back last July 22^nd…but if I’d ignored that signal and followed the regular system it would have yielded spectacular results last year, and so far this year as well, and as of today, with just two IFTs so far this year, it’s sitting with a gain of +17.42%. That would be atop the totem pole in the tracker. And that’s no fluke, since the same system would have finished #1 in the tracker in 2009 (with 39.43%), 2010 (37.62%), and 2015 (29.84%). I keep kicking myself every year for not following my own system (thinking it can’t possibly continueto do so well) and this year is no different.

If 2135 is exceeded, I think I’m going to dispense with the “bull/bear”signal in my system and just follow the basic strategy for eternity. The signals for market tops and bottoms worked like a charm in the last two bear markets, but it’s really pushing the limit this time!

Is it fear of missing out or the Central Banks backed by the big 20 supporting the artificial support?

take it to the limit? one more time?

everybody knows this will end badly, and hard. but nobody knows when.

that is the trick to this game, this is how steel is made.