New to site - lucky

**lucky** · 03-26-2004, 12:57 AM

Great site it's about time someone did this!

3/25/04 - Call myself lucky....I've been that! Going 100% I from 50/50 C & S tonight. I go strictly by Japan since it's got the greatest weight, it's up for Friday will reap that on Monday. I use DJAI = C and Nasdaq =S. I have not considered fluctuation of
US dollar in my I allocation but I'm sure I should. But 8 to 9 times out of 10 I have been lucky with my above strategy. I'm sure I will learn a better way on this board however for now sticking w/ it. My post and decisions will be based on the above strategy....once again going back to I fund tonight. I hide in F when all else is lost never G. Thoughts? Good luck to all and again love the site.

**Wheels** · 03-26-2004, 01:18 AM

Hi Lucky. Welcome.

I noticed what I thought were a couple of flaws in your thinking. First of all you'll notice from the following chart that Japan has the second heaviest weighting (but still significant.

Secondly, I think your timing is a little off. I think the I fund's closing price tomorrow will reflect overseas activity from tonight and early tomorrow. It sounds like your allocation change will take place effective Monday. I could be wrong. Somebody who knows more about this than I might be able to clear that up for us. Perhaps you are just lucky.

Lastly you should be watching the S&P 500 to follow the C, the Wilshire 4500 for the S, and the EAFE for the I. Toms keeps them all updated on the homepage of this site.

Continued luck to you

Dave

**tsptalk** · 03-26-2004, 02:18 AM

Welcome lucky!

**zbwmy** · 03-26-2004, 03:52 AM

HERES LUCKY......

Welcome to the Forum. Thanks for sharing your model. Good luck Monday.

**GS083** · 03-26-2004, 04:51 AM

Welcome aboard.

**k2ds** · 03-26-2004, 01:42 PM

Welcome Lucky

**smine** · 03-26-2004, 02:34 PM

That's what I thought last July when I took control of my money......LUCKY and better off financially! Welcome LUCKY. Whatever strategy works well for you is good.

**lucky** · 03-26-2004, 10:30 PM

Thanks do much for your response. You are right my allocation change will be effective Monday but I still think that's when I will get the benefit of the I fund which closes in the early A.M. US time on Friday. I will let you know.

As far as tracking ...as I said I have used what has been easiest for my feable mind to try and comprehend and also easiest to get (CBS Marketwatch). Anyway that part of it has more or less (than perfect) worked for me.

Perhaps I should pay a little more attention to London but still prefer Japan as I feel(for some reason) it is tied to the others that count more than London.

Once again I want to learn and will take all of you suggestions. We are all in this together. BTWanything is more than the people who I work with. They don't have a clue and don't seem to care???? I can't figure that one out for the life of me!!

Peter (Lucky)

**zbwmy** · 03-27-2004, 12:16 AM

Post Office?

**lucky** · 03-27-2004, 01:32 PM

SSA

**Wheels** · 03-27-2004, 04:46 PM

SSA- cool. We'll have to get some retirement threads going here and pick your brain.

I still think that the I fund's closing price on Friday reflects activity from earlier that same morning but I could easily be wrong. Maybe Tom or Eukrate or someone else in the know could jump in here and shed some light on this. I will try to take a closer look at it myself. If you are right then you are definitely on to something and I will jumping on board soon.

Dave

**tsptalk** · 03-27-2004, 05:41 PM

I think there is some questionablethinking here on lucky's part as wheels pointed out. We don't mind opinions but you seem to be confusing peoplehere with what you are saying. I recommend you look at some of the information of the website, in particular http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html. You seem to be watching the wrong funds to make your decisions.

I saw you got pretty defensive in another topic when someone questioned what you were saying. I'd love to hear your opinions but we must call you on some of them, just as you questioned why I would be in the G fund right now. Valid questions.

But let's go back to the I fund. This has been, and still is, causing some confusion for all of us. We are learning as we go along. We have learned that the dollar affects this fund. We know how the counties are weighted.I swore I put up a post here several weeks ago with an article that told us how they determined the EAFE index price at the end of the day but I can't find it. What I read surprised me.

I had always thought that Japan's action on any given night would show up in the following day's I fund gain or loss. This article I read said that once the US markets closed (and the European markets had also closed earlier that day) the folks running the indexhad to submit a quote to the newspapers by something like 5:00 PM that dayto have it show up in the morning's paper. They actual said they had to guess (my word) what the Asian markets would do that night, based on what happened elsewhere in the world that day, andadjust the quote. Of course once they saw what really happened they adjusted the index the following day. I remember this because it went against my "I fund strategy". I thought Japan's reaction to our markets showed up the following day, thus we'd get a double rally. It doesn't appear to be so.

Anyway, I don't know if I explained that very well but I will look for that article and post it if I find it. lucky, we are glad to have you and look forward to your input. But there are a lot of lurkers reading this board who are trying to learn this stuffso make sure you can backup anything you say. And please don't get too defensive if someone calls you on something you say. Just explain your position. It goes on all the time here and we've all learned a ton.

Thanks,
Tom