Thread: ssdave's Account Talk

We'll see how brilliant it was this week. Many are thinking it is going to break out through the roof this week; if so, I left a lot of profit on the table.

Here's my target #'s for a rebuy from my spreadsheet; although I say buy S, I'll consider C or S at the time I rebuy, based upon which looks to have the most room for growth:

Buy S	target of	36	-2.45%
Consider	at
Buy S	target of	36.3	-1.64%
That is S&P500 of	2010
	2027

I've been checked out for a little over 2 months, I was in my agencies leadership school, and inundated with work at the same time and had to give up managing my future. So, been sitting inactive in the G fund.

I used yesterday as an opportunity to get back into the game with a transfer to 100% S; it was fortunate that S fell enough that I only sidestepped 2% gains while I was out; I bought back in at 2% more than when I went to G.

Looking forward to actively managing again for awhile.

Looking back, my thought in February that there would be enough volatility to make money when I last sold was wrong; predominately it's been up since then. If I had been able to manage my account, I would have bought in again in a couple of weeks later at about where I am now, but would have had one or two buy/sell cycles that would have gained me a couple to 4% in between. The take home lesson is that even when you are wrong, actively managing still will eventually make it up. Buying in again at the panic dip yesterday is just another one of those active management decisions that should result in a good return at the end of the year. Hopefully!

dave

Originally Posted by ssdave

I've been checked out for a little over 2 months

Welcome back! Hopefully this week is a dip, and not the start of a slide down through May.

Frixxxx

I went 100% G today. Should take a small profit of about 1% and lock it in. I'm not too bright, and really do no technical analysis. My unsophisticated look at my own tracking graph/spreadsheet says that I should wait one or two more days, and that would probably gain me another 0.8% to 1.2%. However, i also move based on how things feel/look, I've learned through my life to trust my intuition at times. Today seems like one of those times, so I'm moving out when my more rational analysis tells me to hold for a bit more.

If the trend holds today, my move will lock me in a solid gain that meets my long term objectives, while satisfying my intuition that tells me to sidestep some risk. More opportunities to buy back in will present themselves in the future.

dave

It looks like my spreadsheet chart was right on, should have stayed in instead of getting nervous, and I would have harvested another 1% in S. It shows about another .25 to .5% up in S, and then I expect a 1.5% pullback to complete the pattern. I'll be looking at that as an opportunity to buy back in next week. Hopefully will be able to see the pullback, and it will last a day or more and provide a buy opportunity, instead of an intraday low.

I don't like these low volume, pre-holiday directionless up/down drifting days. Hard to get a trend for the end of the day close to know what to do by the IFT deadline. Hopefully back to a bit more direct action next week to show where we're going.

Right now, I and F are out of play for me, the dollar exchange value and fed actions make those more gambling than investing. So far, the gambling in I has gone pretty well, with QE in europe more than offsetting the dollar exchange. In retrospect, would have been nice to be in. But, could have just as easily lost the same; with risk comes reward if you win.

I don't like to be sidelined this long, been out 3 weeks. My spreadsheet shows that the G fund that I'm in is the highest performer for that time; everything else is just muddling around sideways. Nothing playable in the past 3 weeks, the most anything has moved is about 1%. Whatever happened to the bull market that is always going up? Or volatility, which is the friend of those wanting to make money? Something needs to happen or it's going to be a boring summer!

Really tempting to jump in today. Market still really just muddling around though. I looked at the Tracker for some inspiration. Yesterday, essentially nobody jumping to G. Today, a few. Way too much confidence in the market. The time to make money is when people get desperate, are going to G or cash to preserve capital. Then, there's an opportunity to make money. So, I'm staying in G for today.

The good news about Jobs came out too late to complete the IFT today but is having a positive effect on the markets. Might still jump in today but why couldn't they release that at 6:30am this morning.

FS

Looking at my graph, I think now is a good time to go in; should get some relief soon and make 1 to 2%. Lot of people jumping into I; gambling on a Greek settlement.

It looks to me that the eurozone could go into real recession, and if so, the losses would be high; 4 or 5 to maybe even 10%. The I fund is up 5% plus for the year already, so a correction on Greek and China wouldn't be too much out of reason.

So, went 100% S. It looks the best of all the funds, has a better retreat from recent highs to recover towards. I really expect one more down day, then a recovery rally, but I like to be in, and don't want to miss a chance, so getting a day early.

Glad I got in when I did, wish I would have been around one day later like I thought; that was the real pullback. I just can't do IFT's some days, have to do it early instead.

Now, to go up about 1% more, then sit out and cruise and wait for the next crisis.

I'm at my 8% yearly goal now, get to work on bonus the rest of the year, and maintaining the gains to date.

Futures look flat which is a great sign after huge positive day. There's still room for positive gains this week. Bears not going to hold this rally down