Thread: ssdave's Account Talk

Thanks. I think I'm tracking.

In retrospect, was a good decision to stay in through January, and hold on for a bit more gain; the spreadsheet target was good.

It's back to decision time again. S is at 36.6, over my consider sell and just below my "don't get too greedy" number. I'm at 4% for the year, half my target goal to be able to retire on my terms. Hmmm.

This time of month I hate to make a decision. If I stay in, will be invested and have two IFT's next month. Get out now, and I will only have one effective IFT.

Have to see if it looks like it will hold tomorrow. If we dive off a cliff again, don't want to sell and lock in the loss. If it's an up day, would be smart business to get out and hold on to the years profit; wait for a discount buy opportunity again.

Originally Posted by ssdave

In retrospect, was a good decision to stay in through January, and hold on for a bit more gain; the spreadsheet target was good.

It's back to decision time again. S is at 36.6, over my consider sell and just below my "don't get too greedy" number. I'm at 4% for the year, half my target goal to be able to retire on my terms. Hmmm.

This time of month I hate to make a decision. If I stay in, will be invested and have two IFT's next month. Get out now, and I will only have one effective IFT.

Have to see if it looks like it will hold tomorrow. If we dive off a cliff again, don't want to sell and lock in the loss. If it's an up day, would be smart business to get out and hold on to the years profit; wait for a discount buy opportunity again.

Very nice return for January! I'm definitely watching the top leaders...I have seen a shift in the risk taking appetite of our tsptalk members. I don't like to follow herd mentality so my finger is never far from the eject button. I sense that we have some room here to test the recent highs. Let us hope my keen senses have not been dulled by the aging process.

You are way ahead of me and I am trying to temper my risk aversion but what do you think of staying in the rest of the week because earnings are Ok and Macro politics aren't too bad but most important the FED will probably be very dovish having to consider the EU QE and the cost of labor / wages?

I'm thinking that Thursday and Friday might be good days and the next leg up.

pmaloney, you could be absolutely right. I've almost given up trying to assess the effects of various future news events. If I'm smart enough to see it, 98% of the rest of the world has already analyzed it, and priced it in. I see no percentage in beating the 2% that are less astute than I.

What I have arrived at is: 1) Keep invested as much of the time as I can stand. 2) Get out when it looks likely we'll plateau or fall 3) Get out when I make 2% or more in a month, if it looks like we're nearing highs. 4) re-buy back in when I can get back in 2% or more below my last sell. 5) If I miss and market continues to go up, get in as best as I can because you can't afford to sit out too long and miss profits.

Thanks. Those are pretty good guidelines and I will keep them in mind. I am trying to be less risk adverse and stay invested more but I'm still learning and I wish I had the 2% increase problem to deal with. Thanks again.

Originally Posted by felixthecat

Very nice return for January! I'm definitely watching the top leaders...I have seen a shift in the risk taking appetite of our tsptalk members. I don't like to follow herd mentality so my finger is never far from the eject button. I sense that we have some room here to test the recent highs. Let us hope my keen senses have not been dulled by the aging process.

It's not bad watching the Autotracker leaders and getting a feel for what is going on. But I haven't noticed (or maybe just missed) any of the top folks posting their intent before noon EST. In the past some of the top leaders would post their moves to help other members decide if they wanted to follow or not. Just saying.

I'm not one of the top leaders, one lucky trade for the year absolutely doesn't give me that status! I'm pleased with my return to date, where it falls on the tracker is secondary. I post my real tsp trades, it's not a game to me.

I elected to stay in for today, the initial action looked like I could lock in a considerable loss. If we get a day when it appears to stabilize up, I will get out and look for a re-entry. The 4 hour lag in decision/trade is a killer when we have this much volatility.

As far as posting my moves, I usually take my morning break and make a last minute decision just before 10:00 mountain time, and post my move in the autotracker. Much more likely to post in my account talk at my lunch or after work. Don't have enough morning time to post then. I'm not much of an analyst anyway, just trade with the guidelines I posted earlier. I wouldn't recommend following me, I'm flying 90% blind, using my own simple spreadsheet/graph to meet my own objectives.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

It's not bad watching the Autotracker leaders and getting a feel for what is going on. But I haven't noticed (or maybe just missed) any of the top folks posting their intent before noon EST. In the past some of the top leaders would post their moves to help other members decide if they wanted to follow or not. Just saying.

Well, I may not be a leader right now, but I usually post 30 minutes to 5 minutes before the deadline for my real TSP account. The reason I would guess that they post late is to make last minute analysis and adjustments. For TSPTALK Autotracker...I change the same time as TSP account. So I give a good headsup for TSPTalk Autotracker. Not so much time for real TSP. You know the reason why above.

I'm cashing in today. If the trend holds today and we don't get an end of day sell off like yesterday, S should end up at about 36.7. That's in the middle of my target sell range.

With the volatility that we've had lately, I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to buy in again, and ratchet up.

My thoughts are that we'll go up more in the next couple of days before pullback, but I'd rather take a guaranteed return that meets my long term goals than try to scalp the last dollar. Especially with the jobs report tomorrow, that's a wild card that can push the market either way. I remind myself that I'm not gambling, I'm investing, and a guaranteed return that meets my objectives is preferable to a possible gain that has nearly equal chance of loss. There's a lot of the year left, and will be many more, solid opportunities.

So, 100% G today.

Originally Posted by ssdave

I'm cashing in today. If the trend holds today and we don't get an end of day sell off like yesterday, S should end up at about 36.7. That's in the middle of my target sell range.

With the volatility that we've had lately, I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to buy in again, and ratchet up.

My thoughts are that we'll go up more in the next couple of days before pullback, but I'd rather take a guaranteed return that meets my long term goals than try to scalp the last dollar. Especially with the jobs report tomorrow, that's a wild card that can push the market either way. I remind myself that I'm not gambling, I'm investing, and a guaranteed return that meets my objectives is preferable to a possible gain that has nearly equal chance of loss. There's a lot of the year left, and will be many more, solid opportunities.

So, 100% G today.

Agreed, I think that's a solid call. I moved into the F fund myself, but with the same justification. Trying to take advantage of the volatility when possible.