Thread: ssdave's Account Talk

Congratulations Dave! Sounds like a good strategy that is working for you.

I find myself too often in catch up mode which leads me to staying in too long. I almost got out today looking for a lower entry point next week but got too greedy. We'll see if it ends up costing me.

Cactus, I don't thing you'll go wrong. My personal target written in my tracking spreadsheet is C fund of 26.5, about 1.8% higher than today, and equivalent of S&P of 2025. That is my "don't get greedy" number, if the market reached that before end of August, I absolutely would have gotten out, regardless of what direction the market looked like it was going. My thought is it will reach that before end of September. However, the quick motion up the past few days, low volume, Bonds moving same direction as stocks, and geopolitical events make me think that there is a risk of a dip before the peak. So, I elected to take a good solid 3.25%, lock in my 7% for the year and wait for a September buy opportunity. My long term goal is 8% per year, should easily make that by the end of the year by judicious buying. I'll take the solid return, and consider anything I can do above that as a bonus and a hedge against shortfall years.

A lot of small monthly gains make for a good year.

dave

Well, being conservative and getting out a bit early in August to lock in gains insured that I made 3.44% this month vs 4.01% I would have if I had stayed in C for the entire month. I'm also in the G fund going into September, so only one effective IFT for that month. In retrospect, which is always easy, I would have been much better off to be in, take more profit, and be positioned for two effective IFT's for September. But, hard to complain about a 3.44% month.

This one way (up) market makes it hard to beat being a buy and holder. I'm essentially at the same level I would be at if I had just done a 50/50 C/S allocation for the entire year. The only thing that keeps me going is having a belief that another drop is just around the corner, and I'll avoid that......Risk avoidance while still getting a good targeted return isn't a bad strategy, especially as I'm starting to think more in the capital preservation/retirement glide path way.

Waiting to see what action transpires next week. Still think the C fund will go up to about 26.5 (S&P of 2025) and then correct back. Question is whether I should IFT in Tuesday, take a 1% gain, and then be out, or wait for the peak, and then buy the pullback. I think I'll do the latter. If the market just keeps up the constant grind upward, I'll end up sidestepping 1 to 1.5% of gains before I capitulate and buy back in, but if it drops back a bit, I'll be in a better spot to hold for the fall. Decisions.....

dave

Well, I have in my tracking spreadsheet a goal of buying back in when S was between 34.4 and 35. At 34.73 and dropping today, it's about as close as I'll get as I'll be unable to watch market the next couple days.

S is now 2% lower than when I got out in August, so good potential for a run-up, and 34.4 is the bottom of the low volatility range.

I've been in C mostly this year instead of S, but C hasn't really pulled back this cycle, so went 100% S to take advantage of its greater volatility. Looks like more potential gain to be made there than in C. I might use my second IFT this month to go to C if S bounces more than C so that the potential evens out more. That is, if it does go up instead of further pullback. My way of looking at it is I'm buying in at 2% lower than if I hadn't sold at the peak. Long term, that's good for my goals.

dave

Yeah, that's my idea as well.

Looks like volatility is here with us for awhile. I don't think that is a bad thing, as long as we recognize it and don't panic at each move. Volatility equals opportunity for judicious trading gains.

Lets see what next week brings us.

dave

Well, Cactus, we're looking pretty good as of today. The S fund run up was a real gift, hope it holds at least one day. Now, C fund is looking a little more stable growth, I'm thinking of stepping out of the volatility of the S and sideways into the more dependable C.
Haven't done any IFT's for the month, so with 2 left and 3 days to go, no harm in using one to lateral between the S and C, still stay in but take advantage of the slightly more growth potential and lower loss potential of C.

I'll see what tomorrow looks like before the IFT deadline.

Slightly tempting to take the nice gain I've made for October and go to G, as I've said before a small gain each month equals a good return at the end of the year. With the Fed meeting, it's anybody's guess where we'll end the day, regardless of what it looks like at IFT deadline. Could aim for a lock in of gain and lock in a loss instead.

dave

Yeah, that's what happened to me on the 22nd: aim for a lock in of gain and lock in a loss instead. As it turned out I also bailed out too early.

I think you have it, though. You have enough gains to lock in even if we give some of it back today. Keep up the good work.

Cactus, for what my opinion is worth, I think there'll be another buying opportunity next week or the week after.

The limitations of the TSP system really hurt on days like today. If the trend holds through today and I go to G, I'll lock in a little over 3% from my transfer to S on 9/23. At that time, I stated my goal was to make another 4% by the end of the year. It would be my first IFT of the month, but unfortunately it is also the last day of the month so I go into November not invested. I expect at least a 1% dip after the elections, to at least yesterdays level before todays BOJ jump up. I could buy in at that, and be set going forward. But, then I'll only have one IFT left to harvest Novembers gains. My decision outside of TSP limitations would be clear: Take the money and run. So, the TSP limitations cloud my judgement by making me think about staying in. I think I see some clarity coming out of my mumblings to myself! Have another hour to decide.

I'm going to ride it out over the weekend. My best guess is there's another 3/4 of a percent waiting to harvest before the elections are over and we dip a bit. And, I'll be invested for 2 full IFT's in November.

With the elections over and solidly into a republican senate, I think the markets will celebrate in optimism for a couple of days. So, I held in S (plus I was out of office and not able to transfer) and will hold through at least Friday unless there's a huge run up in the next couple days. We should see a dip in the next week or two if we see a substantial run up, and my thought is to wait for a run up, sell and rebuy a percent or two lower and then hold through the end of the year.

If we start seeing volatility again, then I'll look at doing some transferring to take advantage. I'd like to see 2% more gain for the year.

Be interesting to see what the follow through on the election results is tomorrow.

dave