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Thread: ssdave's Account Talk

  1. #25

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Been too busy to do any managing of my money, parked in G for a couple of months.

    Noise of the past few days finally reached through, and I took the opportunity to buy today.

    30, 30, 40 CSI

    More of a gamble than an investment......

    dave

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  3. #26

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Well, the wide variances and knife edge peaks of the last months has got me rethinking strategy, and adjusting my approach. The bottoms have been a lot flatter than the tops have been; not a single flat stable top but a few zigzag flat bottoms. This suggested a better strategy to timing. With our trading deadline and limited trades, knife edge peaks aren't easy to hit. Instead of selling when the market seems to go up too fast and is topping, I’ve been buying when the market seems to fall too fast and stabilizes, and selling when it recovers a reasonable amount. I missed a couple of moves on the tracker, so the return of 2.2 percent that shows there is really 5.87% for the year. Not stellar, but low risk and a lot better than holding and hoping. My long term goal has been 6% yearly; with any luck at all, should easily meet that this year.
    Well, it remains to be seen if I made a good move today. Based on the European and Asian market closings, and the expectation that the US market would sell the news of the debt default deal being inked, I expected a loss of about 1.5% today; I bought in at 40C, 20S, 40I.
    Always easy to double think yourself, 2 to 2.5% drop today, maybe I got in a day early. Might be more blood before the inevitable bounce occurs. I sincerely doubt that this is another 2008. Fundamentals aren’t there for a big decline; no huge bubbles bursting, just a lot of pessimism coupled with a couple of poor reports that would have been a 1% decline otherwise. Another way of looking at it is that If we’re being 2008’ed again, I sidestepped a 4 to 6 percent decline by being in G from end of June to today. If it continues to decline without hope of relief, I’ll step out again.

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  5. #27

    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Hi again SS

    ...and learned how hard it is to outguess what will happen when people start acting in herd mentality and the market reacts contrary to what events say it should.

    Your post back in 2009 -- kinda like what happened today...
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.


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  7. #28

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Glad to see the slight positive today, after the roller coaster ride.

    Now for a couple of consolidation days to make a W at the bottom, get past the Friday jobs report, then start back up. Biggest question will be what is an acceptable profit, to get back out and lock in the gains? Hard to tell how much to gobble up, with the knife sharp peaks we've been having, there's only been one day to take a profit before falling off the cliff again!
    Last edited by ssdave; 08-03-2011 at 04:29 PM. Reason: typos, of course!

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  9. #29

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Well, been an interesting month. I bought back in too early, anticipating the bottom would come up soon. At least I was out for a while and sidestepped some of the August losses.

    Got nervous today, went 100% G. I was 40 percent in I, and it's shaping up way too risky. Thought about going C and S, but finally decided to get out and wait for some direction to establish. One of my goals was to sidestep risk when I started this. That's what I see myself doing today.

    In analyzing what I did this month, compared to what I intended to do, I made a serious mistake in getting impatient. My observation in the market this year has been fast rises, knife edge peaks, falling into the abyss, muddling around for some time, and then a rise. My stated strategy has been to sell rises, and stay out until the bottom consolidation has happened. This month, I saw the first days of falling off the cliff, saw how much it had fallen, and got impatient that I would miss the lows. I jumped in, and rode it down enough to erase the years profits. If I had followed my strategy, I would have sidestepped about 5 to 7 percent more of the downside. As it was, I am just barely above water for the year now. Live and Learn.

    This trade today follows my strategy. Sell when there's a serious upside, and stay out and wait for another fall, or a clear direction that we're uptrending steadily. I just need to have the patience to wait and see what happens for a few days before jumping in again.

    dave

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  11. #30

    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    This trade today follows my strategy. Sell when there's a serious upside, and stay out and wait for another fall, or a clear direction that we're uptrending steadily. I just need to have the patience to wait and see what happens for a few days before jumping in again.
    Dave, Sounds like we think alike. Usually the first half of the trade (the getting out part) is more clear. The second part is much more difficult (the getting back in part). Before we went to two IFTs I used to phase back in 5-10-15% at a time over a few weeks, etc. Much safer. Now our wonderful TSP Board is causing us much higher risk levels and losses or less profits. Good Investing! I keep reminding myself we're in this for the long haul!

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  13. #31

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Well, got lucky to get out on Wednesday at a local high. Now, looks like we'll be down about 3% in two days; ordinarily I would look at this as a buying opportunity. Especially, when the market went down on known news; nobody expected job numbers to be up, but still the market selling on news that it is flat. Ordinarily, I would expect to recover todays losses quite easily next week. In the past, I've done well harvesting 2% gains once a month or so.

    But, this year, the peaks have been real sharp and short lived, and the bottoms wider and muddling around in a W shape and ratcheting lower. I'm going to wait out the weekend and see what a couple days next week bring before jumping back in.

    I think the strategy of avoiding losses is more applicable today than chasing gains.

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  15. #32

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Well, been still avoiding losses all month, glad I've not had to chase gains, as can't see how I would have been successful with this volatility!

    A lot of buy-in today on the tracker, and the little blip up at the close bodes for a bounce tomorrow. I think the buy in and ramp up are too many people on the sidelines that are afraid of missing a ramp up, not really a rally. Might be shorts buying also to cash in their position. Might be good sell opportunity tomorrow if you were lucky enough to buy in today, short covering might give a boost to the bounce. I was waiting till at least tomorrow to buy in, if we had about 5% down on Thursday/Friday, I would think about getting back in. Now, I think I'm out till Monday. 100% G for now. Even if we fall off a cliff tomorrow morning, I'm way too afraid of a relief bounce in the afternoon. Need to consolidate some more first to make me feel good.

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  17. #33

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Hmmm,

    Had an introspective look in the mirror moment today when I looked at the Tracker. I've got the same allocation as Amoeba, and have been making moves in coordination with Wildwoman. Need to rethink my strategy!

    On a more serious note, glad to be sitting on the sides at the moment, got out just before the flat sideways motion, think it would be good to be out until after Monday. A lot can happen while Europe goes marching on right through our holiday. Been trying to sidestep risk when I can this year, but stay in the market as a default when things don't look too bad.

    Looking forward to seeing what the day after the holiday brings.

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  19. #34

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Went to G today, after having been in since end of February. Too many things happening at once that spell risk. The whole Greece thing, good news that it is looking solved, but bad that it is still essentially a controlled default. Meetings in Europe Monday, and a weekend for people to think about what's happening today.

    What I don't like, and perceive as risk, is that everything is moving in concert today. Europe up. Asia up. U.S. Up, but S&P 1375 acting as resistance. Oil up. Dollar WAY up. Gold and other commodities up.

    Europe up and the dollar way up at the same time are the biggest flag to me. Overseas money is retreating into buying the dollar, but European stocks up at the same time. Saying one thing, and doing another. A few days to realize what's going on, and Europe will drop. At the same time, U.S. stocks going up while dollar going up. Quite the opposite of what we see normally. Same with oil and gold up at same time as stocks.

    All of this means to me: RISK. So I'm out on an up day. Hate the FV thing, although Europe up, will lose value because of the dollar, and I was 40 percent I. But, think the risk is much greater than the FV loss.

    Wait to see what next week brings.

    dave

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  21. #35

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Trying to get back into more active management of my account; been too busy at work the past year to do much.

    Went to G Tuesday, looked like a peak happening before a fall. Well, after a small adjustment, looks like a sideways consolidation, so back in.

    My strategy this year has been counterproductive, limited a lot by my ability to watch what's going on and react. I've got out of the market several times when it looked like it might peak and fall, and managed to sidestep about 2/3 of the gains I would have made by just being a buy and holder. Doesn't make me feel good.

    My thought is that in a bull market, I should be biased to staying in, and only step out when the risk seems abnormally high, so I went back in at 100% S today.

    Every time there's a little dip, even .25%, there's buyers stepping up and buying back in, afraid that they'll miss the small buying opportunities in a bull market. That continual pattern is apparent, and shows up over the past day as a horizontal consolidation after the .5% drop. So..... I'm in; the only good thing in my last 2 moves is I avoided a small drop, and depending on where it ends today, was able to buy back in at about .3% lower.

    Hard market for timing; not enough volatility for an effective strategy with essentially a 1 day delay in buying capability imposed by the TSP; and a continual upward bias that makes sitting out even a few days expensive in lost gains.

    dave

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  23. #36

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    Default Re: ssdave's Account Talk

    Been a long time since I last took time to post.

    I sat out of the market in May, expecting a drop just like the past couple of days. Instead, sidestepped gains that I could have made in June and July. But, also ended up avoiding the drops end of July, so when I went back to C today, ended up buying back in 1% lower than when I transferred from S to G in May. And made 0.4% in G in that time. Holding on to 1% of gains and making another .4% isn't a bad thing. Hard to believe that I'm almost in the top 100 on the tracker with 3.7% for the year.

    My thoughts are that my default position is to be in the market, unless it appears to have topped and ready to fall. So, I elected to buy back into C today, at the worst, I'm 1% ahead of where I would have been if I had simply bought and held all summer. At the best, I'm poised to harvest a return if the market bounces back.

    I'm too busy to track the market most days, and often can't make IFT's in the daytime, so don't do a lot of "trading". I do try to do some risk avoidance, I take solid gains and bank them by going to G when the market seems toppy, and try to rebuy at a drop. Might not do the highest return, but have to remember a few 1.5% gains a year add up to a decent return most years. A solid 6 to 8% average gain puts me at my retirement goals in the 9 years I have left. I keep a private spreadsheet of my account, and find that most years I'm about 20% better than if I was a straight buy and holder. There's exceptions, like last year, when I made half of what I would have if I'd stayed in the S fund 100%. But, overall, I'm quite a bit ahead of a straight buy and hold strategy.

    dave


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