Well, the wide variances and knife edge peaks of the last months has got me rethinking strategy, and adjusting my approach. The bottoms have been a lot flatter than the tops have been; not a single flat stable top but a few zigzag flat bottoms. This suggested a better strategy to timing. With our trading deadline and limited trades, knife edge peaks aren't easy to hit. Instead of selling when the market seems to go up too fast and is topping, I’ve been buying when the market seems to fall too fast and stabilizes, and selling when it recovers a reasonable amount. I missed a couple of moves on the tracker, so the return of 2.2 percent that shows there is really 5.87% for the year. Not stellar, but low risk and a lot better than holding and hoping. My long term goal has been 6% yearly; with any luck at all, should easily meet that this year.
Well, it remains to be seen if I made a good move today. Based on the European and Asian market closings, and the expectation that the US market would sell the news of the debt default deal being inked, I expected a loss of about 1.5% today; I bought in at 40C, 20S, 40I.
Always easy to double think yourself, 2 to 2.5% drop today, maybe I got in a day early. Might be more blood before the inevitable bounce occurs. I sincerely doubt that this is another 2008. Fundamentals aren’t there for a big decline; no huge bubbles bursting, just a lot of pessimism coupled with a couple of poor reports that would have been a 1% decline otherwise. Another way of looking at it is that If we’re being 2008’ed again, I sidestepped a 4 to 6 percent decline by being in G from end of June to today. If it continues to decline without hope of relief, I’ll step out again.
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