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Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

  1. #649

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default back to the pads

    Two big gap up days in a row convinced me it was probably time to seek refuge, at least for the time being. This recent rally could continue, but odds are again favoring at least a short-term overbought pullback...we shall see. Good luck. 100% G Fund COB today.

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    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  3. #650

    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    129

    Default Re: back to the pads

    Quote Originally Posted by Nordic View Post
    Two big gap up days in a row convinced me it was probably time to seek refuge, at least for the time being. This recent rally could continue, but odds are again favoring at least a short-term overbought pullback...we shall see. Good luck. 100% G Fund COB today.

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    I agree and went 80% G, 10% C, & 10% S today. I feel we could see a blow off top tomorrow though if we get a confirmation on tax reform.

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  5. #651

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default back to the pad

    I jumped back into the G Fund COB today. There appears to be room for equities to eke out some additional gains, but seasonality and geopolitical activity have me on edge, so I pulled the plug for now. Will be looking for a possible re-entry in September, but only if conditions look favorable. Good luck!

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    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  7. #652

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default January

    Looking back at 2017, the thing that was most surprising to me was the lack of volatility considering the multiple geopolitical events at play. I was a bit jumpy based on the record highs we were seeing on a consistent basis, and my investing showed it...I was very conservative for most of the year. Buy low, SELL HIGH. I met my annual goal of a 10+% return for the year despite underperforming equities, so I'll take it and look forward to 2018. Apparently Presidential Year 2s tend to be the weakest of the four, in addition to still being at record highs, so I'm already in ultra-conservative mode heading into January. I really don't like starting a month sitting in the G Fund, especially during the strongest 6 month period of the year, but that's what I'm probably going to do tomorrow. Best of luck in 2018, should be an interesting one in the markets. Here are the charts for the C, S, and I Funds:

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    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  9. #653

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default bear flag?

    That can't be it can it, a V bottom and zoom off we go again? We often have a re-test of the lows during corrections like what we had last week, it's possible we won't re-test, but I'm thinking we will....guess we'll find out soon enough. Also, a formation that seems to be staring us in the face today is a fairly obvious bear flag, at least to my eyes. I'm taking my -4% lump and moving to G COB today, looking to buy back near the re-test levels assuming we get it...lots of work to be done to get back into positive territory. Best of luck folks.

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    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  11. Default Re: bear flag?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nordic View Post
    That can't be it can it, a V bottom and zoom off we go again? We often have a re-test of the lows during corrections like what we had last week, it's possible we won't re-test, but I'm thinking we will....guess we'll find out soon enough. Also, a formation that seems to be staring us in the face today is a fairly obvious bear flag, at least to my eyes. I'm taking my -4% lump and moving to G COB today, looking to buy back near the re-test levels assuming we get it...lots of work to be done to get back into positive territory. Best of luck folks.

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    Seen all the bear indicators also seen many RSI, ect. about to cross again. That's why I just moved 92% back into the "G" this morning preparing for a down Friday and more of the same beginning next week with the short week and all. May dip back into one of the funds beginning next month but anticipating looking to get into the "F" as the dollar will have to get stronger with the bond market going up, opine?

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  13. #655

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Wisconsin
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    710

    Default more pain ahead?

    “Do you honestly believe today is the bottom?" said Jeffrey Gundlach, known as Wall Street’s Bond King, last week, who had been warning for more than a year that markets were too calm. Gundlach had been particularly vocal in his warnings about the VIX, Wall Street's "fear gauge," which tracks the volatility implied by options on the S&P 500."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-mar...175626319.html
    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  15. #656

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default back to equities

    After what happened in February, I decided to sit on the sidelines for most of March to see how things unfolded before jumping back into equities. As the SPX approached the 200 DMA last week, the charts seemed to indicate that a decent entry might be approaching. Stronger support, lower BB reached, and bottoming MACD convinced me to make the move into the C Fund mid-week. I'm hoping to stay invested for a longer period during April, but as always we'll just see how things play out and stay nimble. I still think we're in for challenging days later this spring and summer. Best of luck.

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    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  17. #657

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default bearish indicator

    Here's something from McClellan: "Turning down a Price Oscillator while it is still below zero conveys the promise of a lower closing low on the ensuing move," McClellan wrote. Since "promise" isn't the same as a "guarantee", he said the indication can get revoked if the Price Oscillator turns up right away. "I do not expect that outcome this time, but I acknowledge it's a possibility," McClellan said.

    'Big bear market' for stocks lasting several months appears to have begun


    To the charts:

    S&P 500 (C Fund), what's concerning here is that the MACD appears to have rolled over again and heading down, not to mention the overall downward trend since the end of January...beginning 3 months ago. I'll be curious to see if it bounces off the 200 DMA again or go below it significantly on the third attempt. What's that saying about going away in May? I jumped in to the S Fund on Wed. looking to pick up a possible short term gain before the end of the month, but I'm most likely to head back to the sidelines possibly as early as tomorrow. Challenging times, best of luck.

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    DWCPF (S Fund), similar pattern here, MACD is again rolling over and the overall trend since the end of January is down. Risky environment out there.

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    Attached Images Attached Images
    100 G COB 11/3/23


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  19. #658

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default timing

    I just noticed that this is my first post in 6 months, I'm sure my longest inactive period since I joined TSPTalk. The reason for my inactivity, I don't enjoy admitting, is my lack of confidence in the current market. I think it's been overvalued and overdue for another major correction for quite a while, primarily because we had finally reached a point of making all-time high after all-time high...and the "buy low, sell high" theme song was playing loudly in my mind. The main pitfall with that level of defensiveness is the possibility of missing months worth of gains while you wait for the markets to start correcting and/or rolling over, which is what happened to me after the major decline in February. Now that we are finally experiencing some heavy selling pressure, the question becomes "where is the next entry point, even just short term". We don't know how low this will go, or if it might even be the beginning of the next bear market...which DO happen, even though it feels like forever since the last one ended in 2009. I've recently read a few articles saying that a key level might be around 2600 on the S&P 500 (C Fund) as an entry point. We made a large move toward that today with a close of 2656, so now I'm getting interested again...more willing to deploy back into equities, if just for a short term move. What's concerning to me is the possibility, if not likelihood, of the next bear market beginning with this October move. We've seen it before, multiple times. So now timing is even more critical as support levels can evaporate during bear market drops. I'm finally getting antsy to time the eventual oversold bounces...without being too impatient. Midterms and other geopolitical news are of course adding to the fun. When to jump, when to jump. SPX chart:

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    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  21. #659

    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Wisconsin
    Posts
    710

    Default more pain?

    “The key levels we look for internally once again failed to exhibit themselves in a meaningful way Wednesday. At this stage the market’s decline looks like a measured move, which would imply another 4% to‐5% downside, zeroing in on the lows from the correction earlier this year,”

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...rns-2018-10-25
    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  23. #660

    Default Re: more pain?

    I tend to agree with this assessment as well. At the very least, especially with volatility being high, anyone calling a new floor on Wednesday is just rolling the dice. If this was just US markets/companies at play I may have believed the Elliot wave was accurate and jumped in already. As it is, there are Way too many variables at play here.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
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BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Nordic's Account Talk
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