Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

"A technical analysis pattern called a Hindenburg Omen was triggered Thursday thanks to divergences between price, new highs, new lows and advancing and declining measures of market internals. Just look at the way the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-day moving average has been rolling over since late May.

While not a perfect signal (admittedly, there is no such thing in technical analysis), Hindenburg Omens have in the past been somewhat reliable warnings of approaching market weakness since they reflect a withdrawal of broad buying interest. (Admittedly, they have appeared numerous times in recent years without being followed by massive selloffs.)"

Say goodbye to Dow 18,000 -- for a while



We've seen many Hinbenburg Omen's recently not amount to anything, but it is something to be aware of. As for this summer, I have no idea how it's going to play out. I'm not sure I've ever performed very well timing the market during the summer months, aside from my buy and hold days. I tend to play it conservatively, but that doesn't always work either, many advances in equities have been missed during the summer months by being too conservative.

"News which has dramatically altered the Greek situation and is expected to have an immediate impact on the worlds' markets came out after the close on Friday. If nothing has changed by Monday morning, a sharply lower opening is expected. If so, this could be the beginning of the intermediate correction which has long been expected."

Market Turning Points | Andre Gratian | Safehaven.com


Really hard for me to say how this will play out in the next couple of weeks, but volatility is definitely picking up.

To the charts. This is the EFA (I Fund) chart, which shows another gap lower at the opening this morning....starting to feel more like a falling knife if this continues. Just going by the chart it looks like a decent place to buy in possibly, time will tell...I still don't like the level of volatility we're seeing, but let's roll with it for now. Could very well be another quick in and out for the month of July. We need more IFTs for this kind of action. 100 I fund COB today.

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Originally Posted by Nordic

100 I fund COB today.

I like it, just not there with you yet.

The I Fund play worked out the past couple of days, but really hard to say how long it's going to last with the volatility we're seeing. EFA has recovered quite a bit of ground and could recover some more next week, but it could just as easily turn on us and take it all back. Might have to make another move next week, depending on how things are looking after the weekend....summer trading is definitely keeping us on our toes. Hard to ignore the rounded tops and 200 DMA visits we're seeing in the equity funds...turning into hit and run territory and just be happy with a positive return for the summer months. Lots of reading to be done this weekend. Good luck.

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I decided to pull some off the table COB today, and also re-allocate evenly to C, S, and I. 25% G, C, S, I.

The charts currently aren't looking that great...MACD, RSI, and BB all suggest plenty of room to fall, more so in the SPX and EFA indices. Dow Completion Index (S Fund) is looking closer to a bottom before another bounce, but I won't be tempted for a while yet. Just feels like an ultra risky environment right now, especially with difficult seasonality ahead of us. There also appears to be a Megaphone pattern forming in the SPX since May, with a drop underway toward the bottom "jaw". Stay nimble.

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Hard to believe with the recent volatility, but we're essentially at the same level on the SPX as we were in mid-February. We'll have to break out of this sideways channel eventually. August can be a volatile month, so hang onto yer hats and do your reading.

Originally Posted by Nordic

Hard to believe with the recent volatility, but we're essentially at the same level on the SPX as we were in mid-February. We'll break out of this sideways channel eventually. August can be a volatile month, so hang onto yer hats and do your reading.

If you come across some good stuff, please don't be shy. Looks like a rounded top to me, but I know nothing. We are still in a bull market so this thing should break to the upside.

Here are today's charts, which show the indices mostly treading water today...MACD (except for DWCPF, which is oversold), RSIs, and BBs are at neutral positions in the equity funds. I do find the spread in the Bollinger Bands to be interesting, but not quite sure what to make of it technically. The dollar is also showing little movement today and is hovering around 97. All three are showing rounded top patterns and possible bear flag formations, so those are concerns also. Until I see a shift in direction, I'm content to sit in the G Fund, especially considering seasonality. Greece, Puerto Rico, China, and oil continue to make headlines, so I still think caution is warranted here.

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"There is no ‘doubt’ the internal are continuing to weaken.

So where are we? It’s starting to feel like this is the beginning of the end to the bull cycle, and today, all eyes will be on the July jobs report. This does not mean I think we are going to crash, nor does it mean we will not go back up, but the warning lights are flashing, and August into the middle of October could spell danger for the S&P and the global markets."

S&P 500 Futures; Reasons To Be Concerned - Yahoo Finance


Is this a "wall of worry" or the real deal? Great question that I obviously don't know the answer to, but with our limited IFTs and bearish seasonality, I'm going to wait a bit longer before jumping back into equities. The DWCPF (S Fund) appears to be closer to a buy than the SPX (C Fund) or EFA (I Fund) judging from it's proximity to its lower Bollinger Band, but both the RSI and MACD histogram indicate that there could be room to fall further. Also concerning is that DWCPF just crossed below its 200 DMA. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce here, the question is how much of a bounce would it be and would it soon head back down to lower levels with three weeks to go in August? Tough call but I'm going to sit on my lilypad for the time being. Good luck


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