Thread: Nordic's Account Talk

This from Daneric:

"All is going according to the EW primary count. The SPX has met the minimum Minor 2 target range of 1269 - 1310 SPX. It appears we are missing waves iv and v of (c) , so the completion of each should signal the top of Minor 2. An ideal range would be 1293-1310."

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/




Today could be the wave iv down he mentions, possibly followed by the final wave v up to conclude Minor 2. After Minor 2 (1293 - 1310) sometime in January, I'll be looking to spend some time in Lily city. That's the plan for now.

It could be a photo finish between Rickter and heidirn for the full year title if we have a positive day tomorrow. Good luck to both.

I jumped to F fund after the bounce on Tuesday, and will wait a bit before re-entering equities. Could be rough waters right around the bend.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

"Technicals seem to be waning. There is an RSI negative divergence on the hourly SPX.

Sentiment indicators have reached levels that are to be expected for a wave 2 of this size and even more so. For instance AAII bull ratio reached 74% with today's survey. That level of bullishness is rare in the past 6 years.

CONCLUSION

All in all, I am pretty bearish considering the wave pattern is complete or almost complete. Sentiment is more than ample bullish, in fact its almost scary bullish considering credit lockup(s) occurring in Europe. Technicals seem to be waning and diverging. And there are a lot of non-confirmations.

So everything is "in place" for a major imminent downturn Minor wave 3 which could be as big in size as Intermediate (3) that collapsed the markets in 2008.

Does the market have another spasm higher? If it does, my guess is it will trigger a flood of selling as it hits resistance layers.

Combine heavy selling + waning buyers + lack of shorts = a swift price downturn."

Man you got me shakin in my slippers.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Man you got me shakin in my slippers.

Not all of us have oceanics to fall back on sir. In about 20 years I need to have enough to get that place on the lake I've been dreaming about so I can shove off with my 225 Yamaha purring behind me anytime I want. I love nothing better than squatting in equities for months on end, but the recent market volatility isn't making it easy to do that and grow the tug boat at the same time. One day sure, just not right now. Could be wrong, but indicators aren't looking very solid at this point.

Still in F fund, waiting to see how this month plays out. Keeping a close eye on Daneric's prediction of an impending steep downtrend following the conclusion of this wave 2 we're currently in, possibly sometime this month. Charts and sentiment seem to confirm some level of caution going forward. Will be interesting to see how earnings season affects EW structure.


"None of the counts and variations have changed today. Its like a broken record. Could be an ending diagonal count with a higher high somewhere between 1285 - 1300 or 2 had topped and the market is distributing and rolling over. In both counts the market will be ending wave 2 up and wave 3 down should kick in.

Again, for the umpteenth time, ideally if you have a double zigzag structure, the last zigzag will end higher in price than the first zigzag. That has already occurred as a minimum on the DJIA but has not been confirmed by the Wilshire5000 and S&P500.

We patiently await to see if that guideline will be true on the SPX."

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

Another source talking about the likely end of Minor 2.

"In conclusion, I remain long-term bearish on this market, and unless the market can break overhead resistance, I am now short- and medium-term bearish as well. Based on the wave structure, I believe something is "destined" to occur in the very near future to wake investors up from Bullish Happy Fun Land, and this wake-up call will rapidly turn sentiment from bullish to bearish. When that happens, there will be a fast stampede for the exits."

Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/businessm...#ixzz1jAs99q5o

http://www.minyanville.com/businessm...als&from=yahoo

"Wall Street isn't looking that far ahead, I guess. But folks on Main Street, the ones who are watching at-the-pump prices rise again as those holiday bills come due, or are trying to find a nice rental home, already know what's coming. And it's not good."

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post...3-3d6d2171007a

It's frustrating missing out on some of these gains, but I'm just trying to meet my monthly goals and get out. I'm still not sold on this rally and will just wait for a better buying opportunity. Economic fundamentals don't seem to matter anymore.

With the idea that Primary 3 is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks we will see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. As a discount mechanism the omnipotent market is telling us something. Go Newt.

"If Bernanke can break the dollar rally and get the dollar moving south again, there is no way we are going to experience a deflationary bear market this year. In this scenario 2012 would be the beginning of an inflationary period, culminating in a dollar crisis at the next three-year cycle low, due in late 2014. If this is what is about to unfold then we need to alter our expectations from a deflationary bear market to an inflationary bull market."


Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/businessm...#ixzz1kxOpKHp4

http://www.minyanville.com/businessm...als&from=yahoo



This is my first semi-bullish post in quite some time. I'm inclined to see how the first half of February plays out before moving back into equities.

Gimme a break, this leg up has turned into the ridiculous. Not that long ago, uttering the name Greece or whispering "downgrade" sent the markets into the tank. Now the markets are wearing Kevlar and nuttin' can bring them down. Congrats to those staying invested and making money.