Thread: Neirbod Account Talk

After a few months of lurking here, and occassionally posting, I decided to post my transactions for all to see. I am definitely an amateur! I'm 37 and have only been seriously putting money into TSP for around 3 years. I had been just buying and holding a mix of C, S and I until this summer, after I found this site. Tom, if yor goal was for people to take a more active approach to their investing, it worked for me!

To summarize my recent transactions to date, I rode the wave in October and November, trying to play a few wiggles but staying mostly 100% invested in C, S, and I. I jumped to the G fund last Friday, and have been there until today.

Before the deadline yesterday, I made a trade to 30% G, 20% C, 30% S and 20% I. I was expecting that today's oil inventory report will show a big increase due to mild temps and no major disruptions on oilsupplies recently, and that this would result in some gains. Looks like by dumb luck I may have played this right, given the drop yesterday and what I hope is a bounce today.

I still think there will be more pullback after today before the rally continues. I will pull back a bit tomorrow, but am following Tom's lead and not getting out of stocks entirely during this run.

Thanks to all, and especially Tom, for sharing their thoughts and insights. I welcome your feedback and criticisms of my moves. Please be gentle :^

Today 30 G, 20 C, 30 S, 20 I
Tomorrow 60 G, 10 C, 20 S, 10 I

I amstaying with 60 G, 10 C, 20 S, 10 I until Tuesday's Fed meeting. Before the deadline Tuesday, I'll move to 100% stocks to take effect Wednesday. Probably 60 C, 30 S and 10 I. Barring any major events, I'll likely stay with that allocation until after the new year.

Your new allocation for tomorrow is similar to what I plan on doing... SOOO you better NOT do it!!!:shock:

Just kidd'n!

Good move... I hope for BOTH our sakes!:^

Observation: The first three times that the Feds raised interest rates this year the market fell for a few days starting the day after theaction. Find the dates and then go to the TSP site and check share prices to see for yourself. The last time the Feds raised rates, the following two days the markets rallied, go figure.

Decided to jump in a little earlier thanI had planned. Given the Fed is 99% sure to raise interest 1/4 point tomorrow, I figure the real story is the language of the report. I'm betting it will be positive, and that the market will respond positively. We'll see about that.

More importantly, after reviewing my trades over the past few months I am now thinking I should play longer trends and not worry about the wiggles too much, especially in the midst of a good run. So, I am just jumping back in with both feet and effective tomorrow. I will likely stay with tomorrow's allocation for at least a couple of weeks, and reconsider shortly after the new year.

I am also keeping some money in I. I think the dollar could drop some more, so I don't want to bail on I entirely just yet.

Today 60 G, 10C, 20S, 10I

Tomorrow 40C, 40S, 20I

Good luck all, and especially Rod!

I am back from a week off andI am making a move to put more into the I fund. Iam concerned that I am "buying high" into the I fund. But, I think the market overall will continue to rally for at least a week or two, and that the dollar will continue its slow decline, making the I fund a good bet.

Today: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I
Tomorrow: 25 C, 25 S, 50 I

I just cancelled my request for a transfer today. The C and S funds are dipping late this morning. If this holds I expect they will both bounce back in a day or two. So, I am cancelling my interfund transfer. I will wait for a better moment to make my move.

Today: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I
Tomorrow: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I

Now making my move to the I fund. Glad I held off on my move to the I fund yesterday. The C and S funds are up significantly more than the I fund this morning. Seems like today is a better time to move the move.

I also think tomorrow's report on existing home salesmay show more weakness, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and thedollar. Even if that part doesn't pan out, I think the I fund has more to rally, as the dollar continues to fall, and I want a bigger piece of the action.


Today: 40 C, 40 S, 20 I
Tomorrow: 20 C, 30 S, 50 I

I am making a short term move out of the I fund. The dollar is dropping significantly again today, and the I fund looks to be heading for a fairly strong close. I am concerned that the dollar may rebound temporarily early next week once more traders come back from vacation and rethink the steep decline over the past weeks. So, I am moving to 60 S and 40 Ceffective Monday. I'll probably jump back in to the I fundfor Tuesday or Wednesday, assuming any upturn in the dollar will be a quick "correction" and short lived.

I may not be able to make move tomorrow, so I am doing it today after the deadline so it will take effect Monday

Today and tomorrow 20 C, 30 S, 50 I
Monday 40C, 60 S

Happy New Year to all!

Dave

This has been a rough 3 days. Made a move just before the deadline today to lighten up on the S fund. I keep expecting a rebound, but it just isn't happening yet. I am still keeping some in S in expectation that it will bounce back some, but I am thinking that now is the time to start leaning more heavily on C and I. The dollar has rallied some, bringing the I fund down, and I now expectthe dollarwill continue downward.

Today: 40 C, 60S
Tomorrow: 40C, 30S, 30 I

I'm backing off. I rode out the recent dip, and now have made back most of the loss incurred since the new year. With February historically not good for stocks, and with the economy still pretty anemic, I figure it is time to step back a bit. I am also not convinced tomorrow's jobs report will be as rosy as some seem to think.

My plan for the next few months is to buy into small dips (2-3%) and sell on small peaks (2-3%) and see where that takes me. I think we could be in for a series of ups a downs overcycles of several weeks, like we saw for much of last year.If I'm right, my strategy should work prety well.

I still think we are in for some more growth, so Iwon't back off entirely.Until I see evidence of a bear market, I'll keep at least 50% in stocks at all times. I will also take this opportunity to rebalance my stocks. I am dropping the S fund, figuring the C should do at least as well, and eventually better as the year goes on. I will also put more into the I fund since the dollar in in a recent rally, and I think it is short-lived.

Today: 40 C, 30 S, 30 I
Tomorrow: 50 G, 20 C, 30 I