Thread: burrocrat's Account Talk

oh that mr. market is a tricky devil, first it comes right out the gate and rips your arm off for -3% and lets you sweat it most of the trading day, then gives back a portion to only finish down about half as bad as it looked. whew! only -1.5%! meh, it's just a flesh wound. tricky.

i suspect this market will be back for the other half it left behind, just was saving it for later, like banking pain and fear for when it can be used to fuller effect. if this was the bottom today then i will eat my shorts, which doesn't sound all that appealing to me no matter how much ranch dressing i smother them in, but it is better than eating my left nut which i would not be uncomfortable betting that there are bigger losses to follow soon.

may you live in exciting times. the market has my interest now, maybe another 5% down and some shots at a quick score, but it is going to take a while to dig out of this hole. people are getting damaged and hitting their pain point, most people do not recover quickly after getting kicked this hard this long, it can take years to come back and some of them are close to retirement, this one is going to leave a mark, a big mark.

happy trading...

It's gonna mess up your stats if I start following the ark signals now, b. but I do like how the ark is doing. hmm. speaking for myself, I'm not doing horribly, I just don't like losing money, period. still, better than losing a whole lot more money.

bear market behavior in my system is untested, can't look back beyond 2011. wish I could. alternatively, wish I knew how to write the algo necessary to create similar charts so I could look back to 07-09 for myself. not skilled enough for that one. ah well, at least I have a system now with pretty darn clear signals, just have to juggle between 2 different timeframes to make decisions.

Originally Posted by alevin

It's gonna mess up your stats if I start following the ark signals now, b. but I do like how the ark is doing. hmm. speaking for myself, I'm not doing horribly, I just don't like losing money, period. still, better than losing a whole lot more money.

bear market behavior in my system is untested, can't look back beyond 2011. wish I could. alternatively, wish I knew how to write the algo necessary to create similar charts so I could look back to 07-09 for myself. not skilled enough for that one. ah well, at least I have a system now with pretty darn clear signals, just have to juggle between 2 different timeframes to make decisions.

Bad, bad juju happens when you break a system...

Originally Posted by alevin

It's gonna mess up your stats if I start following the ark signals now, b. but I do like how the ark is doing. hmm. speaking for myself, I'm not doing horribly, I just don't like losing money, period. still, better than losing a whole lot more money.

bear market behavior in my system is untested, can't look back beyond 2011. wish I could. alternatively, wish I knew how to write the algo necessary to create similar charts so I could look back to 07-09 for myself. not skilled enough for that one. ah well, at least I have a system now with pretty darn clear signals, just have to juggle between 2 different timeframes to make decisions.

if you are interested in learning how to code backtesting models, you may want to consider dating userque? i am sure with all the time he spends online and jacked in to his matrix computers he has to be single.

all joking aside, i am prepared to account for if members start to follow the ark signal, in a number of ways...

1) the system includes half or more of its decision making indicators from sources outside of the tsp gov realm, but don't ask because it is my secret sauce, my man behind the curtain stuff, and any individual arker following the signal instead of generating the signal is only 1/12th of 1/2 of the indicators.

2) for each arker indicator species there is a backup with a closely similar trading style who i also watch and use to 'ground truth' the move of the visible arker member, if they diverge i will see it and know it and correct for it.

3) it was evident to me right from the start when i built it that the ark system has this potential 'dog chasing its tail' inherent possibility for anomalous readings and the negative feedback loop stuff where folks start following the moves instead of being the moves. it makes no difference in the matrix because it is not exclusively the arkers actual moves that count in the calculations, rather their sentiment as evidenced by action, and that is of high value to know that, the market is a social construct to express money not the other way around - money does not define the social construct. following the ark does not remove an arkers sentiment from the equation.

4) i probably shouldn't say this so you figure out if it is true or just a distraction from someone stealing my kfc secret recipe, but mostly i just pull all this stuff straight out of my ass, have a few beers, try to write a somewhat interesting monologue, and then slam my chips around the way i think it is going to go, but with some moderating factors so the system is global but my burro account is personal, deeply personal. so how am i doing? well, doing about +9.3% last year and 7.5% lifetime overall.

5) if anybody thinks this is all a bunch of crap then they should not make their own investing decisions based on info they think is crap. pretty simple concept there.

6) the burros-ark system comes with an unlimited warranty for full refund of any moneys paid to the system, no questions asked. but you are on your own for any dumb decisions you make with your own money, including follow some donkey's musings on the internet.

7) the burros-ark system is totally and completely free. so that will be some pretty painless refunds to issue.

good luck out there, all of you.

Originally Posted by Boghie

Bad, bad juju happens when you break a system...

But then again, using a system that wasn't around in 2008/09 might be bad, bad, bad juju...

Originally Posted by alevin

It's gonna mess up your stats if I start following the ark signals now, b. but I do like how the ark is doing. hmm. speaking for myself, I'm not doing horribly, I just don't like losing money, period. still, better than losing a whole lot more money.

bear market behavior in my system is untested, can't look back beyond 2011. wish I could. alternatively, wish I knew how to write the algo necessary to create similar charts so I could look back to 07-09 for myself. not skilled enough for that one. ah well, at least I have a system now with pretty darn clear signals, just have to juggle between 2 different timeframes to make decisions.

Piggy backing on what burro said,

I'm not single, and I use alerts to let me know when certain things regarding this site (and other sites) happen. Though I'm sure it would be nice, dating is not necessary.

If you are willing and, more importantly, can reduce your system to something I can understand...I will see if I can code it for you. Then, I would see if I can optimize/maximize it for you. I would also try to run backtests for you.

I have some free time now that I'm done with the core of my system and have gained a LOT of specialized knowledge in this subject-matter.

"but mostly i just pull all this stuff straight out of my ass"

burro, was that an intentional pun? Sick minds want to know!

Originally Posted by ravensfan

burro, was that an intentional pun? Sick minds want to know!

everything i say is a pun, sarcasm, double entendre, innuendo (in you window), or a backhanded compliment. it is how i was taught to communicate and to protect my own and see and take my shots. some folks were raised different. some folks sought or received training they never imagined. and some folks simply resolve to eat and maybe prosper, no matter what pain or fortune come their way. i cannot explain it, believe me i have tried. the ark system is the best way so far i have learned to communicate that animal instinct we all have, and i plan to make a boatload of money.

and then buy me a rock star party bus. simple man.

that is the way.

Originally Posted by userque

I'm not single

your dog doesn't count.

Yes, burro loves word play, and mind play, and poker play, other mental challenges among many other kinds of challenges. Creativity and odds calculations always on, all the time. And Boghie is a math whiz, and UQ an IT master.

Me, I'm just a workaday biologist with some stats background and a little computer programming classwork back in the mainframe/punchcard dark ages. UQ is quite safe, I gave up longdistance dating quite some time ago, don't need or want a matchmaker, so burro, cease and desist, that's an order. (as if burro listens to orders from anyone besides jp-or sometimes a moderator). He mostly listens to the music in his gut. gut sense. aka intuition.

UQ, the charts I've been posting from indexindicators are the signal system I'm using these days. smoothing function of 5 day MA x 10 day MA; and smoothing function of 10-day MA x 20 day MA. creates square waves of varying amplitudes/standard deviations, can be graphed against daily spx the way I've been using it. other indices available, just not the other tsp-corresponding indices, not directly.

The site goes back 5 years only. 1-day lag on seeing how it behaves. example: S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

Boghie, I know I know I know-changing system midstream, when I finally feel like I have a system I'm comfortable using, is a bad bad idea, but sticking come what may with system with unknown behavior back 7-8 years bp, is an even worse idea. so I'm using very cautiously at this point, still feeling my way, keeping losses small.

Originally Posted by alevin

... UQ, the charts I've been posting from indexindicators are the signal system I'm using these days. smoothing function of 5 day MA x 10 day MA; and smoothing function of 10-day MA x 20 day MA. creates square waves of varying amplitudes/standard deviations, can be graphed against daily spx the way I've been using it. other indices available, just not the other tsp-corresponding indices, not directly. ...

Thanks. Checked it out. I can't reproduce it as I can't be certain as to their 'smoothing' function.