Thread: burrocrat's Account Talk

I cooked, cleaned up the kitchen and am now drinking a Copa of Merlot, makes the wife love me even more.manwine.gif

no merlot for me, heck i ran out of beer before noon unfortunately. but i keep a bottle of cheap russian cough syrup in my survival kit in case i get stuck out in the boonies and need an anesthetic, pain killer, or just plain ole get bored waiting for the end of the world to hurry up and end so i am feeling alright.

burros-ark update: it's still a crazy world, and full of coincidences. the g-fund and the i-fund are exactly tied at 1.84%, but obviously they got there very different ways. as luck would have it, burros-ark and my personal burrocrat account are nearly tied at 8.64% and 8.63% respectably. and they got to basically the same spot on different routes and different times too. i don't believe in coincidences. but i do believe in heroes. actually, i think everybody has a hero in them, it's just that it takes time for the situation to evolve for the hero to come out, and it usually seems almost natural, accidental, like a coincidence. i watched a series called jessica jones on netflix, it is cheap and grainy like a comic book. which should come as no surprise as it is a tv remake of a comic book, complete with base production gimmicks, cheesy product placements, and unbelievable unexplained stuff, much like the markets. but there are also lessons about truth and control in there, much like the markets. crazy stuff. if you got a spare weekend on your hands and don't mind puking a few times, i highly recommend watching it.

Attachment 36113

burros-ark signal: hold. which is like three weeks now stuck on the last buy signal. i am out and want to stay out until just before i hear the 'crack' when the market breaks, the hairs on the back of my neck are standing up and going electric, but the system says stay in, so the system stays in. hold. some folks got a bit more aggressive in their positions, but mostly everybody is sitting tight and mostly right. hold.

Attachment 36114

extra analysis: 10 arkers are beating all the funds except for c-fund. half that many, 5, are beating c-fund at only 3.55%. tough year. tough crowd. and watch out for the kryptonite.

burros-ark update: it's still still a crazy world. lots more coincicences. certain groups are known for doing certain things, but we can't discriminate against individual members of groups because we don't have proof they are going to do certain things. until they do them, even after being properly vetted and visa'd and stuff it takes many days to be certain. and then it's not really their fault, it's our fault because we weren't nice enough so they got mad or else we we're not strict enough with ourselves so they had access to things they could make poor choices with. pretty much like the markets, damned if you do and damned if you don't. it makes it a pretty hard game to win with our hands tied behind our backs. what do you do when you're in a fight and your hands are tied? you learn to kick, hard and fast, or else you get beat. was it or wasn't it? will the fed or won't it? santa or grinch? who knows?

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burros-ark signal: sell. things are not in sync. the obvious is ignored and the hope that bad is not going to happen springs eternal, possibly to the detriment of us all. sell. a couple of heavies bailed and nobody is excited about the future, not in a contrarian fear way, just a this game is rigged way kind of pessimism. so get out. sell.

well i'm glad the ark system was able to get out today with less than a 1% loss, that was close. it is at 7.45% on the year with 1 trade left to get back in but the window is shrinking. since it only executes trades at cob on mondays that leaves just the 14th, 21st, and 28th for an entry if the stars align and the indicators say go. so we shall see.

my personal burrocrat account at 8.69% has been out for a few weeks and just waiting for a drop-and-pop scenario. it has 2 ift's left but effectively only one entry and could get out all at once or in stages anyways so it looks like both accounts are in a cautious holding pattern for now.

it would be nice to pick up a percent or two and pad the gains, but at this point i am more than content to ride the year out and gather a few more shekels in g fund unless it really calls to me.

after having a disastrous august and september, and missing some opportunity in november, i am not feeling too bad about this year's returns. time to play prevent defense and walk to the house.

as i mentioned earlier, there will be some changes to the burros-ark system. i am surprised that the weekly on monday only trade restriction of the system has not seemed to be as big of a liability as i had worried, and actually seems to have helped smooth some volatility. at this point i am leaning towards continuing the system for another year with some refinements, but i have been considering just dropping it and trading my run and gun style without too much thought, so we shall see.

happy trading for the rest of the year, maybe i'll join those in the markets later, and the system will still follow current signals whatever they may indicate until we close this year out.

Originally Posted by burrocrat

well i'm glad the ark system was able to get out today with less than a 1% loss, that was close. it is at 7.45% on the year with 1 trade left to get back in but the window is shrinking. since it only executes trades at cob on mondays that leaves just the 14th, 21st, and 28th for an entry if the stars align and the indicators say go. so we shall see.

my personal burrocrat account at 8.69% has been out for a few weeks and just waiting for a drop-and-pop scenario. it has 2 ift's left but effectively only one entry and could get out all at once or in stages anyways so it looks like both accounts are in a cautious holding pattern for now.

it would be nice to pick up a percent or two and pad the gains, but at this point i am more than content to ride the year out and gather a few more shekels in g fund unless it really calls to me.

after having a disastrous august and september, and missing some opportunity in november, i am not feeling too bad about this year's returns. time to play prevent defense and walk to the house.

as i mentioned earlier, there will be some changes to the burros-ark system. i am surprised that the weekly on monday only trade restriction of the system has not seemed to be as big of a liability as i had worried, and actually seems to have helped smooth some volatility. at this point i am leaning towards continuing the system for another year with some refinements, but i have been considering just dropping it and trading my run and gun style without too much thought, so we shall see.

happy trading for the rest of the year, maybe i'll join those in the markets later, and the system will still follow current signals whatever they may indicate until we close this year out.

The weekly updates have been enjoyable to read, and it's great to see the system beating the market. No small feat during this crazy year. Much appreciated.

Your personal stradge-didy is pretty inpressive as well, since you're out most of the time and you're not subjecting your account to massive risk by staying in for long periods. Can't count the number of sleepless nights I've had and continue to have hoping I didn't get trapped in another massive downturn. Good job...

Now to completely degrade the thread...

Survivor Abi looks pretty damned good after 30 days of starvation. I remember when I saw her at the finale of her last season and thought, eh, but she's got it going on eating a 1/2 cup of rice a day.

ok folks, bonus commentary. hold tight, this sh*t's about to get heavy. the market is going to roll, but it will come back. you can smell the fear, owl is approaching his pain point again like earlier this year and blackbird is standing there punch drunk like go ahead hit me again can't be any worse than it already is.

hold. hold your line, this will come around, she's a sound ship and built for it, bring it. another minus 1 or 2, just a couple more shots, then we launch. be ready. it ain't gonna do no good to jump and swim now. if it is truly lost then it is too late to jump, if it comes back then you want to be on this boat. either way it's one hell of a storm, enjoy the ride, smile at the wind, wheee!

Originally Posted by burrocrat

ok folks, bonus commentary. hold tight, this sh*t's about to get heavy. the market is going to roll, but it will come back. you can smell the fear, owl is approaching his pain point again like earlier this year and blackbird is standing there punch drunk like go ahead hit me again can't be any worse than it already is.

hold. hold your line, this will come around, she's a sound ship and built for it, bring it. another minus 1 or 2, just a couple more shots, then we launch. be ready. it ain't gonna do no good to jump and swim now. if it is truly lost then it is too late to jump, if it comes back then you want to be on this boat. either way it's one hell of a storm, enjoy the ride, smile at the wind, wheee!

Thanks for the encouragement Burro. Employing Rope a Dope strategy until I wear the bums out!!!

Originally Posted by ravensfan

Thanks for the encouragement Burro. Employing Rope a Dope strategy until I wear the bums out!!!

that's one hell of a rope you got there...

one. this is going to hurt. be patient, it was too late by the time we saw it anyways. two is coming. hold. then we ride.

Burro, you're a good man.

I didn't see your advice in time, Burro. It didn't matter because when I exited right near the deadline I thought I had a fair chance of today being an up day. I absolutely can't stand the unnecessary and punitive 4 hour time lag we are subjected to. Today is the best example of why. I'd like to go "walking tall" all over the people who could fix this and choose not to. I do plan on re-entering around fed announcement day, but not back into the I fund, which has been a steaming pile since I got in late in Oct.