Thread: burrocrat's Account Talk

dam gold bugs got the best of me again. how can someone pay north of $1k for that stuff? one ounce! is it that bad out there?

getting nervous and looking for a spot to bail. almost pulled it out last friday, saw the up in the morning and thought about selling high, but had a client actually keep their appointment, and by the time it was over it was too late. didn't play out the way i thought but would've got out even and been more comfortable coming into the new week.

outlook = short term: nervous, mid term: optimistic, long term pessimistic. what does that say?

possible plays (2 trades left still this month):

short term: 50G, 50 F, duck and cover now! re-assess in a couple of weeks.

mid term: hold for a few days and hope for a mini run, then back out to conservative mix, wait for a chance to hit it with last trade this month.

long term: 30F, 70I, plant and pray until 2010. not much faith there but god please help me.

gonna have to get off the fence here soon.

Gold bugs. Got to love em!
Just a word, I bought gold when it was around $350 - $400 an ounce, and sold around $1000 earlier this year. "Held for about 4 - 5 yrs" I really did get into gold, but gold bugs really don't sell, they hoard the stuff. And they think it can go up to $10k easy. I disagree. We will see some rise in gold, but it wont go insane, unless our government collapses. Or it becomes the next bubble!
After I made my profit in that I moved my tsp account over to I fund, and have made killer gains. The reasoning is the dollar is weak and other people are putting their money in safe areas. Yen?? And for me I see so much spending and no way to pay off our debt. So I have to move my money either in commodities or international stocks. Right now I am betting international stocks.
As you can tell I hold for the long term, and I like your idea of 30f and 70I, right now I have been in 100I for awhile now. So I might take some off and buy some F. What do you think the F fund will do?

http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp
Click the Ignore everything but the dollar video.
He explains it in a nutshell!

[quote=stingrayiii;230584]What do you think the F fund will do?[quote]
F is the new G. I move there to take some gains off the table and/or to buffer coming losses in C,S and maybe I. I expect it to make more (or lose less) than the G. The weak dollar has me afraid to put anything in G, even for a short time while waiting to get back in. No way it will keep up with inflation, and I don't want to get caught in G when it that bubble pops. The constant "reminders" from Bejing about how we should be running our markets is not a good situation. I'm always suprised when the Treasury auctions keep meeting with success, although i suspect there is some accounting sleight of hand going on there. Wouldn't take much to upset that apple cart.


Even if the U.S. outlook is bad, C and S should benefit when the "flight from safety" occurs, lesser of two evils. Just like the opposite was true last year. I think many investors will pour into U.S. equities because they have an aversion to investing "over there." As if their markets are less transparent or something, is that even possibe?

Maybe someone can shed some light on this for me? I'm trying to find the mix of F and I that mitigates down or sideways days but provides upside exposure.

I don't base my sense of self worth by comparing to others, so that's not the motivation for this example, but i think there may be a lesson in here somewhere and i'd like to understand it. I will inform The Lady that I am using her results to that end.

09/12/09 tracker returns:
F -0.16%C +0.63% S +0.96% I -0.74%
me: F10, C30, S30, I30
Lady: F00, C26, S37, I37
Both are up +0.24% today.

Of course the proportion of FI to CS matters here, but 1:3 F:I seems to cancel out, yet achieve same gains as a more 'all in' allocation.

Maybe the little bit in F could offset drops in the I, but if I shoots up could still catch some additional gains? Not sure how this might play out if CS are more active one way or the other.

I might be approaching this the wrong way or from a narrow perspective, but i mean well. Just trying to get a glimpse of the big picture.

Any thoughts on this matter?

Oops, i really should re-read my post before i push the go button. I meant 09/14/09 returns below, spotted a few recent speeling errors, and messed up a quote.

Oh well, at least i'm consitent.

New allocation: 40F, 15C, 15S, 30I.

Getting a little nervous here, moving 1/2 of C & S to F, leaving I alone to catch yesterday's bounce. Hope to sell the stock funds high at COB and hole up for a bit. I know there might be some big action the rest of the week, squeezing the shorts, but i'm afraid i could end up losing my shorts if i hang in there any longer.

No logical analysis behind it other than this morning on the radio I heard a couple of songs that take me way back. Carole King was just beltin' it out, 'I feel the earth move under my feet', maybe it's the bulls starting their stampede, but i'm concerned it's more like someone getting ready to pull the rug. And Wings with the classic 'band on the run', i took that as a cue that it was time to fly.

Still one trade left this month.

Interesting action today, bears pushed back each attempted rise and managed to end it lower. With all the much ballyhoo'd upward pressure waiting in the wings can this continue?

The expirations are skewing the outcome to the positive, next week should be exciting.

Funny how my hopes for the market change depending on how much i'm in the stock funds. Let's get this -5% (or more) thing over with already so we can move forward. I think it's coming, but that could just be wishful thinking.

And i have one trade left, i would hate to finish the month without using it. Just because i can doesn't mean i should, but i resent with the whole trade limit thing and like to get all that's coming to me (careful what you ask for, i'm not ready for the judgement yet). Maybe i should see another counselor about that, but the last one dropped me, said i was making her crazy.

New allocation: 0G, 0F, 30C, 30S, 40I.

Gonna bite, hope this ain't a head fake this morning, want to get more shares at a discount. Last day of the month and put it all in looking for a short term bounce to end the week thurs and fri.

Almost like having 3 trades in october, can get right back out and still put it in one more time next month, always with the option of migrating to G after that if things deteriorate.

What we need here is a good ole fashioned sell off that scares the jeebeesus out of most folk.

Hang on.

Originally Posted by burrocrat

New allocation: 0G, 0F, 30C, 30S, 40I.

Gonna bite, hope this ain't a head fake this morning, want to get more shares at a discount. Last day of the month and put it all in looking for a short term bounce to end the week thurs and fri.

Almost like having 3 trades in october, can get right back out and still put it in one more time next month, always with the option of migrating to G after that if things deteriorate.

What we need here is a good ole fashioned sell off that scares the jeebeesus out of most folk.

Hang on.

Your trade request today goes in for October.....you'll only have one more trade after that, until November!

He did it before noon, and it's still September, so doesn't it count against September and not October?