Thread: OBGibby's Account Talk

Watch Niall Ferguson's "The Ascent Of Money"

John Carney|Jun. 29, 2009, 4:24 PM

The first episode of Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money won't air on PBS until July 8. But you can watch it right here right now. The four-part series traces the rise of the modern financial system, providing a historical perspective for our current crisis. One of the lessons that is very clear is that financial crises are nothing new. In fact, they've been a feature of financial history since earliest times. And here's the good news: despite the trauma, things get better.......

http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-nial-fergusons-the-ascent-of-money-2009-6

Originally Posted by OBGibby

Current Balance Distribution:

C - 60%
S - 20%
I - 20%


Current Distribution Allocation:

C - 50%
S - 25%
I - 25%


Historically, and currently, a "Buy & Holder."

Over the LONG RUN - you'll more than recover your losses. The Biggest Losers are usually the ones that are convinced they can out smart the Markets.

Originally Posted by OBGibby

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Investment Performance' (PIP) for the twelve months ending May 31, 2009, was down 27.15%.

I doubt many would be willing to share that - so in a way I've got to admire your willingness to expose your losses. I'd say in the Long Run you'll come out a winner.

Originally Posted by Steadygain

I doubt many would be willing to share that - so in a way I've got to admire your willingness to expose your losses.

It is what it is. I'm in the market for the long haul. I can retire in 15 years with 25 on the job, or I can retire in 24 years with 34 years on the job (mandatory at age 57 for me). In any case, I don't plan on touching my TSP for 25-30 more years, at the earliest.

Quite frankly, I'm rather enjoying the down market of late. I'm buying cheap, and this year I'm maxing out ($16,500). Hopefully circumstances will allow me to max out next year as well and I can keep maxing it out year after year.

The market timing approach intrigues me, but I have neither the knowledge nor the time to really stay on top of the markets. I'm not at all confident that I could better my current Buy & Hold strategy through market timing. Obviously, some folks can. Good for them. But I'm just as happy right now to stay the course I'm on, even exposing warts and all...

You will undoubtedly discover that dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all portfolios. Buy'em whenever the money is made available - and now is the perfect time to accumulate.

According to my tsp.gov online account, my 'Personal Investment Performance' (PIP) for the twelve months ending June 30, 2009, was down 21.34%.

Previous 12 Months Ending:

May 31, 2009 -27.15%
Jun 30, 2009 -21.34%

Originally Posted by OBGibby

Watch Niall Ferguson's "The Ascent Of Money"

John Carney|Jun. 29, 2009, 4:24 PM

The first episode of Niall Ferguson’s The Ascent of Money won't air on PBS until July 8. But you can watch it right here right now. The four-part series traces the rise of the modern financial system, providing a historical perspective for our current crisis. One of the lessons that is very clear is that financial crises are nothing new. In fact, they've been a feature of financial history since earliest times. And here's the good news: despite the trauma, things get better.......

http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-nial-fergusons-the-ascent-of-money-2009-6

A question for anyone who has watched this: is the theme similar to "The Money Masters" which discusses the history of banking and the banking families? (How the few control the world).

Originally Posted by Warrenlm

A question for anyone who has watched this: is the theme similar to "The Money Masters" which discusses the history of banking and the banking families? (How the few control the world).

Sorry, haven't watched it yet. Waiting for it to air and then be made available on iTunes.

New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis

Zero money down, not subprime loans, led to the mortgage meltdown.


By STAN LIEBOWITZ
The Wall Street Journal
July 3, 2009

What is really behind the mushrooming rate of mortgage foreclosures since 2007?....Many policy makers and ordinary people blame the rise of foreclosures squarely on subprime mortgage lenders who presumably misled borrowers into taking out complex loans at low initial interest rates. Those hapless individuals were then supposedly unable to make the higher monthly payments when their mortgage rates reset upwards.....the most important factor related to foreclosures is the extent to which the homeowner now has or ever had positive equity in a home.....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124657539489189043.html

Kass: Many Challenges Still Ahead
06/29/09 - 12:02 PM EDT
Doug Kass


.....The surfeit of consumption and the overindulgence in the credit and debt markets, however, are residues that argue in favor of a long-lived transformation in consumer behavior, much like our parents and grandparents endured after The Great Depression.....

.....Most notably, the personal savings rate will remain elevated, and personal consumption expenditures will be deflated for an extended period of problem......

.....The construction industry (residential and nonresidential), which provided as much as 40% of the job growth in the early 2000s, will not provide the historic role in expansion of employment, and there is little to replace real estate as a catalyst to growth.....

.....Besides the consumer, the banking industry will adopt a more conservative approach to lending as the pendulum of credit moves in the opposite direction of 2000-2006.....

.....Corporate and individual tax rates will rise and provide a further headwind to growth.....

.....I see an inconsistent and uneven period of growth (not just subpar growth and a shallow recovery) that will be difficult for investment managers and corporate managers to navigate. The odds of economic/profit disappointments and an eventual double-dip in 2010 will be magnified as it's very different this time, owing to the prevalence of so many unconventional headwinds.....

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10529842/1/kass-many-challenges-still-ahead.html

Made In America

Edited By Steve Kichen, 05.28.09, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes

Made in America meant something very different 30 years ago. It will mean something very different 30 years from now. All we can do is make good guesses. The facts are that 12 million adults make something for a living in the U.S., and their output accounts for $1.6 trillion, one-fifth of world manufacturing, more than that of any other nation. Yet our unprecedented manufacturing muscle is, to many, and justifiably so, in a state of crisis. Those 12 million jobs were once 19.5 million jobs. Since its peak in 1979, factory employment has never stopped falling. The hard truth? It never will. Manufacturing is always in crisis. Productivity eliminates jobs here, in China, in Mexico and everywhere. Making goods will continue to play an important part in our economy, but it will employ a smaller workforce. The growth will be in the ideas that come with the hands: innovation, automation and customization. Hands have skill; people have passion..................

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/28/american-manufacturing-factories-business-makers_land.html

Get Ready for 14 Percent Unemployment


http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/07/06/get_ready_for_14_percent_unemployment_97295.html