Thread: Steveg's Account Talk

Back in the day, 1938 was compared to 1907.

Hey all...

Still here; been laying low though, taking my beatings as the market has been on a big up-trend for the past few months. It has been painful missing out on the gains, but I can certainly attest to the fact that life is MUCH less stressful for me, being "out" than "in." Reason? Because I remain convinced that we are headed down -- as convinced now as ever. And to be "in," but certain that we are headed down longer-term, means that I'd be on pins and needles trying to make some quick gains while nervously trying to ascertain the right time to jump out. And I am not cut out for that kind of thing -- now I know why I've never been a gambler!

Congrats to everyone who has been "in" and made some nice gains -- gains, that is, if you don't take a beating on the way back down (assuming I'm correct and that that is where we are headed.) Birch (and the other bulls) -- you have done well, but if I am correct in what is headed our way, I hope you find it in you to jump out of perma-bull mode and lock in your gains.

I have been on record as being quite concerned about where we are headed as an economy and as a nation; time will tell if I am right or not.

In the mean time, I plan to sit on the sidelines and hopefully miss the rug being pulled out from under this charade of a "recovery."

Steve

During a secular bull market, the cyclical, or shorter, bull markets within them gained 110% on average and lasted at least three years and longer. That's a long time to be on the lily pad. The economy is healthier than widely believed and exports will provide a bigger boost than in the past. If the market is poised for a multiyear run, investors should be more aggressive about diving into stocks. Since 6/26 I've already made 338 individual purchases.

Birch --

Your premise though requires that I agree with two things:

1. This is a secular bull market;

2. The economy is "healthier than widely believed."

Actually, I believe the opposite on these two points, namely:

1. This is a hype-fueled, irrational, unsupported-by-the-fundamentals bear market rally;

2. The economy is "much sicker than widely believed."

Obviously, since we believe two opposite things, only one of us can be right (or, neither of us could be). I guess we shall see...

Steve