Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

I thought we would see some selling this week, though I also said it would not likely amount to much. So far, the S&P 500 is up over 1.5% this week, while the DWCPF is down more than 0.5%. I don't track the I fund closely, but it's up over 1% this week. So it's mixed across the averages, but if you're in large caps, you're enjoying some nice gains.

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Another fresh high for the S&P 500 was posted Wednesday. It's overbought now, for what that's worth. The DWCPF remains in a somewhat sideways pattern.

The options are neutral this morning. NAAIM reports around mid-day. My intermediate term system remains under attack with just one signal keeping it in a positive condition. Breadth remains positive, but flat over the past 2 weeks.

It's a mixed picture in some respects, but it's still very much a bull market. The bias remains to the upside.

What kind of a market sees a tech company lose $19B in a day and then seemingly shrugs?

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The S&P 500 saw just a modest pullback on Thursday, which the DWCPF rallied moderately to get a bit closer to the top end of its trading range. Volume was elevated. The charts remain bullish. How long before the DWCPF finally breaks to the upside?

The options look neutral for Friday. NAAIM came in neutral, but still with a decidedly bullish bias. My intermediate term system remains 1 signal away from flipping negative, but the signals improved a bit.

So, not much has changed. The market is really due some selling, but sells are not working well right now. Since NAAIM is still bullish, I'd follow their lead.

Price on the DWCPF was rejected once more near the 1460 area. In fact, price is now sitting on its rising 50 dma. Momentum has turned down.

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The S&P 500 also fell, though it held up better than the DWCPF. So, we do have some measure of technical damage, mainly on the DWCPF.

Breadth fell on Friday, but remains within its current trading range. My intermediate term system remains positive, but under attack. The options are bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish heading into the new week. TSP Talk remains overly bullish.

I note that the major averages plunged after the close on Friday. Maybe they recover by Monday and maybe they don't. While sentiment is bullish for Monday, Friday's action after the close gives reason to pause. We are due some selling so I would not be surprised if the bulls get ambushed in the new week. Price rejection on the DWCPF supports that view, but I don't have enough solid evidence to bet heavy on that outcome for the new trading week. So, Monday's action could give us a clue.

As I suspected, the bulls got ambushed to start the new week. It wasn't ugly (unless perhaps, you include the Naz), but it was negative for most of the day and the averages didn't close well either as price ended not far from session lows.

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Momentum continued its downward tack. The DWCPF closed well under its 50 dma. The S&P 500 remains well above its key averages.

Breadth is near the low of its current trading range. I consider it neutral at this point. The OEX is neutral for Tuesday. The CBOE is bullish.

Did we get any clues for the short term today? It seems as if a downtrend may be starting, but how deep might it go? While the DWCPF broke a key support line, the 200 dma is much lower and that won't be an easy target unless breadth falls apart. Sentiment is too bulled up, but it's been like that most of the time for a long while now, so I don't use it as a key indicator like I once did. I think the market biases lower. I can't get overly excited about a deep dive, however. At least not yet.

After 2 big down days, the market bounced. The S&P 500 still looks just fine, but the DWCPF only got back to its 50 dma. Don't get me wrong, the chart isn't in bad shape, but price is flirting with a key support level after falling below it on Monday. And it would not surprise me if price climbs back over that level.

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Momentum is trying to turn back up. Breadth is positive again, from neutral, but still in a range. The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bullish again.

The market is not making it easy for bulls or bears. I'm still looking lower for the week, but it's very hard to bet against this market.

There wasn't much price change in the S&P 500 or DWCPF today, so I'm not posting charts this evening. For the most part, my indicators have not changed. The DWCPF is still fighting to regain its 50 dma. The OEX remains neutral and the CBOE modestly bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Breadth remains positive, but still tracking sideways. My intermediate term system remains positive, but has been beat up over the last few trading days.

The market seems to be in no man's land. I began the week looking for a lower bias, but the market has remained resilient to downside pressure. I'm neutral on the market for Thursday.

The DWCPF outperformed the S&P 500 today and price on that chart easily jumped well past the 50 dma in the process. The bears continue to be denied.

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Interestingly, my intermediate term system flipped negative today despite the positive action. Breadth remains positive, but flat.

The options are decidedly bearish heading into Friday. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, so they are getting more defensive, but are not bearish by any means.

Based on what I am seeing this evening, I suspect the market is going to be giving back some of its gains on Friday. This bull may not be running to the upside, but it ain't giving up much ground either. Stick to the long side for now.

Last week, the indicators were telling me to look for weakness (early in the week). But, as has been the case so many times, the bulls have challenged attempts to drive price lower. For the week, the C and S funds posted decent gains. By contrast, the I fund was hammered.

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Friday, I thought the market would see some selling. I also said that bulls are not giving up much ground. Such remained the case as the C fund closed for a gain, while the S fund dipped modestly.

My intermediate term system remains negative (it flipped last week). Breadth actually hit a new high on Friday, but it's not that much higher than the top of its current trading channel.

The OEX is neutral for Monday. The CBOE is bearish. NAAIM is neutral, but they remain bullish overall. They are not shorting this market. TSP Talk came in less bullish, though still solidly bullish overall. TRIN closed on the low side Friday, which is bearish for Monday, though I can't read too much into that given the mixed close.

You've heard me say that the market is due some selling, but that the downside remains resilient. Nothing has changed in that regard. Such resilience is likely to give way to another up leg sooner or later. Follow NAAIM. They're long.

The train may have left the station.

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In spite of mediocre technical indicators, the market is rising. The S&P 500 is hitting new highs and the DWCPF is at the top of its trading channel. Will it follow the S&P 500 to fresh highs?

My intermediate term system remains negative (at odds with the market). Breadth hit another fresh high. That is a key indicator. The options are flat for Wednesday (neutral).

Still no change to my outlook. Follow the trend (long).

It was a choppy up/down day today. The market closed mixed with relatively small price movement.

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The charts remain in good shape; especially the S&P 500. The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. Breadth remains positive, but it has not been marching higher. That may not mean all that much.

So, no change in my outlook. The bias is still to the upside. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

The market tried to make some upside headway today, but resistance kept it from gaining much ground.

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My intermediate term system remains negative (go figure). Breadth is positive, but still flat. The options are neutral. NAAIM came in more bullish. I've said to follow their lead and that recommendation still stands. They are smart money.

So far, the market has some nice gains. Hopefully, the bulls can keep them to end the week.