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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6721

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The indicators were flashing a sell at the close on Tuesday and sure enough Wednesday saw a good poke to the downside.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, the charts simply show a pullback on average volume at best. It could be a bull flag at this point. We'll have to see.

    TRIN looks bullish for Thursday, but TRINQ is only neutral. Not much help there. The OEX is decidedly bearish for Thursday, however. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM will report tomorrow. They've been reigning in their bullishness the last few weeks, but they only appear to be getting more cautious rather than outright bearish. Breadth is falling, but remains bullish.

    We may get some downside follow through on Thursday, but we could bounce as the trading day progresses. That's my expectation.

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  3. #6722

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It didn't take long for the bulls to retake control of price. In fact, the S&P 500 hit a fresh high today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    There isn't much not to like about these charts if you're a bull.

    The OEX is bearish again as we head into Friday's action. NAAIM came in more bullish. That pretty much tells me that the bulls don't have a lot to fear for the time being. TRINQ closed at a low level, which could be bearish for the Naz. TRIN was neutral. My intermediate term system is one signal away from flipping positive again. Breadth remains bullish.

    I don't see any reason to take anything off the table, do you?

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  5. #6723

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, the bulls maintained control of the market. All 3 TSP stock funds ended the week higher. However, the C fund was up much more than either the S or I funds. I'll take it at face value for now, but small caps did not lead last week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Looking at the DWCPF, you can see that price appears to have put in a double top, which can be bearish. But not much else about this chart is bearish, and since the S&P 500 is still hitting fresh highs my expectation is that price will break to the upside on the DWCPF.

    My intermediate term system remains very close to flipping positive. Breadth remains positive.

    The options look a bit bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish for next week. TSP Talk saw a bullish spike in the latest survey and that's bearish (historically), but in the context of the other signals I think it may be simply neutral.

    I'm looking higher for next week.


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  7. #6724

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quick update this evening. The market closed mixed. I note that small caps were particularly weak again, though not enough to be concerned (so far). Breadth remains positive, but under attack. My intermediate term remains positive and is also under attack. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is bullish (for Tuesday).

    I see no clear indication of direction at the moment, so we may see some choppy trading.

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  9. #6725

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Another fresh all-time high for the S&P 500 was hit today. Boy, it's amazing how an economy firing on all cylinders can just keep pushing prices higher, huh?

    It's really not a surprise, however. The indicators are telling us to stay invested.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system. The options are neutral for Wednesday.

    We can pull back at any time, but I don't think the bears will be able to mount much of an attack. Small caps are still lagging, but still nothing over the top. The bulls remain in control.

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  11. #6726

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Another fresh all-time high for the S&P 500 was hit today.
    Not quite an all-time high... 2875 was hit in January, but getting closer.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #6727

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Not quite an all-time high... 2875 was hit in January, but getting closer.
    2875 may have been hit in January, but I hit 60 in December. Not sure which one is more significant.

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  15. #6728

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    2875 may have been hit in January, but I hit 60 in December. Not sure which one is more significant.
    60 is middle aged, half way to that sudden stop.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798

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  17. #6729

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No change to my stance. Today's bias to the upside confirms what I've been saying. The bulls have control for now. Breadth and my intermediate term system remain bullish. The options are largely neutral. NAAIM reports Thursday.

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  19. #6730

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The S&P 500 backed off on Thursday, but the DWCPF pushed higher. Upside momentum is struggling.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    My intermediate term system is still positive, but the signals are flattening out. The Arms are looking bullish for Friday. The OEX is bearish. NAAIM came in neutral (still bullish overall).

    With both charts near their highs, momentum waning, the OEX bearish and my intermediate term system flat, I think some selling may be on tap very soon. Nothing dramatic is expected. Not with NAAIM still bullish overall.

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  21. #6731

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, the market edged higher. Big gains are not as common as they once were it seems.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price remains near their peak on both charts. the trend remains up. Momentum has flattened overall.

    My intermediate term system remains positive, but it is flirting with a negative condition. It would not take much selling to flip it. Breadth is positive, but is tracking sideways for the better part of 2 weeks. NAAIM remains bullish overall. TSP Talk is overly bullish (bearish). The options are neutral to modestly bullish for Monday.

    The indicators suggest weakness for next week, but they are not screaming such. Some moderate selling pressure in the short term would help reset the indicators for a possible push higher later in the week.

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  23. #6732

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Not surprisingly, we had another mixed day in the market to start the new week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price didn't move all that much. The DWCPF has been tracking largely sideways now for about 2 weeks. The indicators are looking mostly flat too.

    My intermediate term system remains near a sell, but not convincingly. In other words, the signals are weakening incrementally and not in a more convincing fashion.

    The options look bearish for Tuesday. Breadth remains bullish. We could get some weakness still, but I as I said late last week, it probably won't amount to all that much.

    Keep an eye on bonds. They are taking some big hits the past 2 days. The 10-year in particular should be watched. Yes, it's early, but it's possible that it could be an early warning sign. Just something to keep an eye on for now.


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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