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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6673

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by hotwings View Post
    CH,

    I too think Crypto is going to emerge and take over some or all of the financial system as we know it today. When that will happen is the million $ question. I have been following/trading the cryptos since this time last year and continue to be “invested” long term in ETH, ADA and XRP. I have learned a lot from the YouTube videos that Dave from “the chart guys” puts out each day. Thanks again for sharing your analysis/commentary on this board and best of luck to you going forward.
    I think we are going to know a lot more by the end of this year. The battle over monetary control is heating up. Globally, many countries are moving away from the dollar and toward the Yuan, crypto and gold. A new paradigm is slowly taking shape.

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  3. #6674

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by hotwings View Post
    CH,

    I too think Crypto is going to emerge and take over some or all of the financial system as we know it today. When that will happen is the million $ question. I have been following/trading the cryptos since this time last year and continue to be “invested” long term in ETH, ADA and XRP. I have learned a lot from the YouTube videos that Dave from “the chart guys” puts out each day. Thanks again for sharing your analysis/commentary on this board and best of luck to you going forward.
    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    I think we are going to know a lot more by the end of this year. The battle over monetary control is heating up. Globally, many countries are moving away from the dollar and toward the Yuan, crypto and gold. A new paradigm is slowly taking shape.
    Any advice for total novice on how to get started with cryptos? How do you know what to get into with so many different options?

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  5. #6675

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by evilanne View Post
    Any advice for total novice on how to get started with cryptos? How do you know what to get into with so many different options?
    We are all novices when it comes to crypto. It is anticipated that it will take another 10 years for this form of commerce to reach some degree of maturity, but it is starting to become a viable form of exchange now. The county tax collector in the county next to me here in Florida (Seminole) announced about a week ago that they are going to begin accepting crypto for tax payments in the near future. More and more headlines like this are being seen. We are still in the early stages, but now is the time (in my opinion) to get smart on this. I bought a subscription to a "crypto school" to help me begin navigating this new territory: https://www.remaincalmschool.com/

    Think of it like the internet in its early stages. Many folks thought it was cool, but didn't see how it was going to mean anything when it first became accessible. When Visa first became a viable form of payment folks thought it was crazy to pay for things with "plastic".

    I am buying crypto within the higher market capitalization's to help mitigate risk, because risk is certainly not zero. There are more and more websites standing up that offer info. Here's one I use: https://coinmarketcap.com/

    Just keep in mind that this thing is evolving and volatility is currently part of the game, but it is expected that that volatility will eventually smooth out. I am dollar cost averaging my entries too. The main coins I buy are BTC, ETH and ZEC, but I also have a few others as well. I can exchange between them within the wallet that I use (something else that's still evolving).

    That cryto school I mentioned does a good job of educating you on the basics, but you can learn a lot on your own if you're willing to dig. nnutt has been posting videos on a regular basis here on this site. It won't take long to start sorting things out once you spend some time doing it.

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  7. #6676

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market remained resilient on Wednesday. Price is holding up well overall even as the indexes can still be considered overbought. The weakness that I was looking for over the past few days is being countered by buying pressure to keep the illusion that we have a strong stock market and economy. Crypto is currently being hammered as part of the monetary battle taking place behind the scenes. In the end, the stock market will eventually collapse. It's just a matter of when.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Since no one can really predict with any certainty exactly when a collapse will occur, I will simply lay out the technical picture as I typically try to do.

    Momentum is flat. Strength is largely flat as well. While price on the DWCPF had been rising as the S&P 500 was tracking sideways, it has now come under some pressure. It looks like we may have bull flags on the DWCPF, but the S&P 500 appears to be consolidating around the 2725 area.

    The options are leaning a bit bullish for Thursday. NAAIM releases their sentiment later this morning. My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth.

    For now, the technical picture still looks bullish.

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  9. #6677

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It wasn't a particularly exciting day in the market on Thursday. There was some weakness, but once again it was countered by buying. Overall, price didn't change much.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is on the flat side currently. Breadth remains positive. The options have gone neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which is neutral to bullish to my eye (they are leaning bullish).

    There isn't anything in the indicators to suggest a big move either way. More chop may be in store.

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  11. #6678

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm a strong neutral as well, though I part company, completely, when it comes to crypto investment of any kind...now or ever....perhaps a metaphor would help: compared to investing in cryptos, I feel I would get more out of my money by burning it and roasting weenies. This is not from personal experience, although I know of those who learned "the hard way."



    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk


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  13. #6679

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The TSP stock funds closed mixed last week, with the C and S funds posting modest gains and the I fund getting hammered for about a 1.5% loss.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Heading into next week, momentum is waning across the indexes, but price is tracking sideways. The S&P and DWCPF still look bullish and may be consolidating for another leg higher. Maybe.

    Breadth dipped toward the end of the week, but is still positive. The options closed the week neutral. NAAIM is neutral to bullish. TSP Talk is still bulled up. My intermediate term system remains positive, but showing signs of possible topping; though that can happen if the averages are consolidating.

    For next week, I am neutral to modestly bullish.

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  15. #6680

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's start to the new week certainly wasn't bullish. But as usual, the indicators remain mixed (surprise).

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Today's downside action came on higher volume, which may be an early warning, though I want to emphasize the word "early". Look at the meltdown of Deutsche Bank as being part of that early warning.

    Momentum has turned down. We can see that price on the S&P 500 just about tested its 50 dma before retracing some of its losses to close well above that key support line. The DWCPF saw some selling pressure too, but the Russell 2000 significantly outperformed the rest of the market and that kept this index in good shape. Honestly, this chart suggests new highs are a likelihood before long.

    Breadth is falling rather hard, but remains positive, still. The main battle seems to be in the NYSE, which shows the A/D line falling hard. But the Nazdaq A/D line is holding up well.

    The options look neutral for Wednesday with both the OEX and CBOE leaning modestly bearish.

    I am looking for some degree of downside follow through, but the bears will likely not have an easy time of gaining any traction in that direction. Look for the CB to continue waving their magic wand to levitate this market.

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  17. #6681

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said the indicators remained mixed, but that the Russell 2000 significantly outperformed the rest of the market and kept the DWCPF in good shape. The chart was telling me to look for new highs before long. I guess "before long" was the next day as the broader market rallied in robust fashion.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPF broke to the upside. The S&P 500 rallied hard as well, but price is not breaking out as yet. In fact, it is well behind the DWCPF in that regard.

    Momentum turned back up on the rally as did breadth (hard shot higher to a fresh all-time high).

    But do we really have a break out? It's very possible, but tomorrow is looking bearish to my eye. TRIN closed at a very low level, which is bearish for Thursday, and that's the NYSE, which has been struggling. The options are leaning solidly bearish for Thursday as well. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    So, I'm looking for a pullback on Thursday, but I can't say how much we'll actually get. The fact that small caps are outperforming is not something we can easily dismiss, not to mention the all-time highs in breadth. So, while we could get that pullback, the bulls remain solidly in control of this market regardless.

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  19. #6682

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that I was looking for some selling during Thursday's trading action. We got it. That selling pressure largely gave back Wednesday's gains. Volume was on the higher side too.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum turned back down as did breadth. My intermediate term system remains positive, but some of the indicators have been leveling off or declining. It's possible that this is an early warning that the market is reaching some kind of top.

    The options are neutral. NAAIM is neutral.

    I am looking for the market to try to come back on Friday. Technically, the market continues to look okay. But that can change if negative global economic indicators (Italy, DB, etc.) begin to spread, which is what I expect it to do at some point. I cannot predict a serious decline with any precision, but I do believe the makings of one are slowly taking shape.
    Last edited by coolhand; 05-31-2018 at 08:39 PM.

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  21. #6683

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After last Thursday's sell-off, I said that I was anticipating the market bouncing back on Friday. It did and it also managed to hit fresh highs on the DWCPF. The S&P 500 has yet to break out with price now sitting near the top of its current trading range.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum turned back up on the S&P 500. The DWCPF has been flat-lining for more than a week. While that may seem toppy, breadth shot higher again on Friday and hit yet another all-time high.

    The options are neutral heading into Monday as is NAAIM. TSP Talk is also neutral.

    I suspect that next week may be more of the same grind to the upside for the DWCPF, but without a decisive breakout on the S&P, I am not sure how much more upside we can really expect on that index. Small caps are the obvious place to be right now (S fund).

    I remain wary of the underlying market structure and am convinced that this bull market will roll over at some point. But that could be days, weeks or months (I really don't think we're talking years). That's my longer term perspective even as the shorter term looks technically bullish.

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  23. #6684

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am on travel this week, so my posts will be condensed for a few days.

    Monday saw the S&P 500 finally breakout to the upside. That's not really a surprise given small caps are pounding their way higher. I was looking for more upside grind and we're getting it.

    The options are a bit bearish for Tuesday. Breadth is soaring. My intermediate term system remains positive.

    The beat continues. We may see a pullback today, but the trend remains up.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
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