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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6661

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls took control of the market last, slicing through upside resistance levels on the way to some pretty nice gains (if you were long).
    I did have some sell signals in the latter part of the week, but they didn't produce much selling. Friday's action leveled off the RSI as it wasn't as robust as the previous trading days. Running out of steam?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 isn't looking too bad now. There is some horizontal resistance around 2800, but that would require much more upside to test it. Volume was tepid. This rally in general has been on relatively low volume. Price on the DWCPF tested that upper trend line 2 days in a row and gains were paltry on Friday. That may be a problem. Momentum is still rising on both charts.

    Sentiment shows that TSP Talk got all bulled up again. The options went neutral. NAAIM is neutral. TRINQ closed at a high level on Friday, which is bearish for the NAZ on Monday. Breadth hit a fresh all-time high.

    So, we have a low-volume rally on good breadth, but the smart money is not overly bullish (or bearish for that matter). The market has gone a long way in a short time and there is every reason to look for some selling soon. However, this market is perverse and could continue to trend higher than many might expect, though I am not saying it will. Fundamentals are not good and there are signs that this bull market is in trouble. A Fed induced bull market with little economic structure to support it can only run for so long. Guessing how long it can go is a lesson in frustration, however. The broader market was relatively flat for the year until last week's rally. That's another indication that the bull may be running out of steam.

    For next week, I am neutral (like the smart money).

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  3. #6662

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Small caps closed lower today, while the S&P 500 edged higher. Weakness in small caps could be a top marker of sorts.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPC is also hitting resistance (3X) at falling trend line resistance. Volume remains low.

    The options are neutral for Tuesday. TRINQ closed very low, which is bearish for Tuesday.

    I suspect the market is ready for some measure of a pullback. Let's see how much we get.

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  5. #6663

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I said yesterday that I thought the market was ready for some selling, but that I wasn't sure how much we could expect. Interestingly, small caps held up well in contrast to the broader market.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, price was rejected at trend line resistance on the DWCPF. Price on the S&P is falling as well, but remains above its resistance line. Momentum is turning down. Volume picked up a bit, but only a bit. For Wednesday, the options are neutral. Breadth has turned down, but remains positive. Technically, things still look okay, but the market may see some downside follow through. I am not looking for anything deep, however.

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  7. #6664

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I hope we don't have a big drop.

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  9. #6665

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The DWCPF hit a fresh high today on the current rally and it broke trend line resistance in the process. The S&P 500 has stopped climbing and is now tracking sideways.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Breadth is hitting fresh highs again. The options are neutral to modestly bearish heading into Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish, but some of those managers put on shorts again. TRINQ closed at a very high level today, which is bullish for Friday. My guess is that the market sells down soon, but finds a bottom and reverses over the next few trading days.

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  11. #6666

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's action was choppy and mixed; like the indicators. The week closed mixed too, as the S fund was the only TSP stock fund to post a gain.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is falling on the S&P, but rising on the DWCPF. Both are acting fatigued.

    My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth is still positive, though it went sideways on Friday (hint of selling on tap?). The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bearish short term, but bullish beyond 3 days or so. TSP Talk remains pretty bullish (bearish).

    I continue to look for weakness in the short term, but suspect it won't go deep or last all that long.

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  13. #6667

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Once again, the market is ignoring bearish signals and powering to the upside. Breadth soared on Monday and that's an indicator that carries a lot of weight. Futures are pointing up this morning. The options are bearish for Tuesday. The market remains a bull, however.

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  15. #6668

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So CH -

    Have you scaled back into TSP?

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  17. #6669

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by hotwings View Post
    So CH -

    Have you scaled back into TSP?
    No. I am focused and transitioning into crypto currencies now and do not plan to play in the stock market again. I scaled back my tsp contributions (min. 5%) to push funds into crypto and pm's. The CBs can play their games all they want now, but not with my money. The future of CBs is one of doom and I don't think it's all that far off now.

    I will continue to post here as I have been, but in August my subscription to stockcharts will expire and I won't be renewing it. From there it will be simple commentary with no charts.

    Let me clarify what I mean by doom. I don't know exactly how the transition from the dollar to crypto is going to play out (yes, that's what I believe). It's likely that companies will be compelled to convert from the old system to the new, but the new system will not be managed by CBs. They will be relegated to the dustbin of history. I am pretty certain of that. I don't want to be heavily invested in the old system when the reset hits, so I'm spreading out my risk.
    Last edited by coolhand; 05-22-2018 at 06:29 PM.


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  19. #6670

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We finally got some selling, but most of it came toward the end of the trading day. No serious technical damage was done. Volume was average.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum did turn down a bit, as did breadth. The options are now neutral. There is a very damning report from the IG coming out very soon; I think it's tomorrow. This could cause some volatility if it does in fact get released. How the market reacts to it may be interesting. I don't generally get into any detail in my commentary when citing this kind of potential activity, but I think it should at least be acknowledged as a potential market mover. From a technical perspective, the market still looks bullish.

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  21. #6671

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    No. I am focused and transitioning into crypto currencies now and do not plan to play in the stock market again. I scaled back my tsp contributions (min. 5%) to push funds into crypto and pm's. The CBs can play their games all they want now, but not with my money. The future of CBs is one of doom and I don't think it's all that far off now.

    I will continue to post here as I have been, but in August my subscription to stockcharts will expire and I won't be renewing it. From there it will be simple commentary with no charts.

    Let me clarify what I mean by doom. I don't know exactly how the transition from the dollar to crypto is going to play out (yes, that's what I believe). It's likely that companies will be compelled to convert from the old system to the new, but the new system will not be managed by CBs. They will be relegated to the dustbin of history. I am pretty certain of that. I don't want to be heavily invested in the old system when the reset hits, so I'm spreading out my risk.
    Well, at least you are positive on the crypto market... all I see is red and it getting redder...

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  23. #6672

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,

    I too think Crypto is going to emerge and take over some or all of the financial system as we know it today. When that will happen is the million $ question. I have been following/trading the cryptos since this time last year and continue to be “invested” long term in ETH, ADA and XRP. I have learned a lot from the YouTube videos that Dave from “the chart guys” puts out each day. Thanks again for sharing your analysis/commentary on this board and best of luck to you going forward.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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