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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6637

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market had a gap and go day Tuesday. The S&P 500 blew right past its 50 dma.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Strength and momentum both rose. Breadth is looking very bullish. The options are neutral again.

    Things are starting get interesting to the upside. Everything is turning up. I have no reason based on the indicators to expect any serious downside; at least in the short term. We do have a line of resistance getting closer on the S&P 500, which needs to be watched. It could be tested as soon as Wednesday. My guess is that if it gets tested, resistance probably won't hold. Not with breadth as strong as it is.

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  3. #6638

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, the market rallied a bit more on Wednesday. Interestingly, the highs of the day did not hold and a good portion of intraday gains were erased. At the same time, price is now entering into an area of resistance where it's possible we see a lower high followed by a reversal; though not necessarily an immediate one.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The bullish perspective still shows breadth very bullish and it did hit new all-time highs today. But, it has had a bit of a run, so we could be due a pullback for this reason as well as the hitting overhead resistance.

    The OEX is neutral to modestly bullish for Thursday. The CBOE is bearish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    I am looking for a pullback very soon, but the downside could still be limited if we get it. Overhead resistance may hold initially, but price may test it more than once and certainly we may see resistance break on further upside. I am neutral at this point.

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  5. #6639

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that the major averages were starting to press into an area of resistance and that breadth was hitting fresh all-time highs. That meant we could expect some selling soon, which we got. Interestingly, volume rose a bit. The 200 dma was tested for support today and held.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The options are neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM got more bullish and the bears among them are not betting on the downside. That tells me that the chance of any serious decline is unlikely for the time being. Breadth did turn down as did momentum.

    I don't have any strong feelings about Friday. I tend to think the market may chop around, but next week I suspect we may see an attempt to take the market higher once more.

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  7. #6640

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Heading into Friday's action, I said that I had no strong feelings about market direction given the mixed signals and consequently thought the market would likely chop around as a result.

    I guess it did chop around, but it did so with a downside bias. For the week, the TSP stock funds still tacked on decent gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    For Monday, NAAIM is largely neutral as are the options. Breadth has been dropping hard the past 2 trading days, but remains positive. My intermediate term system is positive, but deteriorating after 2 down days. The S&P 500 powered lower on Friday and price has closed well under its 50 dma, which is a key support line. Maybe a bull flag is forming, but we need to watch how price acts for a few days as another test of the 200 dma is not out of the question, though I do not expect it. The DWCPF remains is good shape be contrast.

    Overall, I'm neutral again (as I was last week).

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  9. #6641

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's action was uninspiring for bulls or bears. Price on the S&P 500 was not able to retake its 50 dma. That may be a problem, but the DWCPF still looks fine. Breadth was down, but remains positive (for now). The CBOE is neutral for Tuesday, but the OEX is bullish, so that suggests Tuesday could see some upside action, though I am not looking for a big move.

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  11. #6642

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Monday's action was uninspiring for bulls or bears. Price on the S&P 500 was not able to retake its 50 dma. That may be a problem, but the DWCPF still looks fine. Breadth was down, but remains positive (for now). The CBOE is neutral for Tuesday, but the OEX is bullish, so that suggests Tuesday could see some upside action, though I am not looking for a big move.

    I'll take a couple of days of small moves in the positive direction.
    May the force be with us.


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  13. #6643

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So much for a rally on Tuesday as earnings became a catalyst to sell down the market as trading session hit mid-day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It's not a bullish picture for the S&P 500 as it is spending some time under its 50 dma. However, price bounced off the lows and the 200 dma may be providing support. Momentum is negative. Breadth is now negative too. My intermediate term system remains positive, but under attack.

    The CBOE is neutral to modestly bullish. The OEX is bullish.

    I am looking for a bounce on Wednesday. Longer term, I am not comfortable with this market and am disinclined to bet heavily on the bullish side. There are signs that this market is in trouble, but we could go sideways (for the most part) for a period of time. In any event, I am more comfortable playing the short side than the long side (outside of TSP) in the current trading environment.

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  15. #6644

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market has been primed for a rally the past couple of days and instead the market is probing lower. This is not good news for the bulls. Yesterday, I said that price on the S&P 500 was holding under its 50 dma, but I did not mention that the DWCPF had crossed below its 50 dma on Tuesday as well. It just shows the inability of the bulls to get anything going.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Today, The S&P 500 came close to testing its rising 200 dma, but that key support line held and price bounced for modest gain on the day. Hardly a victory for the bulls.

    Breadth is negative and still ebbing lower. The options are still bullish, but that hasn't mattered very much of late. My intermediate term system is still positive, but some of the signals continue to deteriorate. The ARMS index will probably keep it positive for a bit yet.

    So, support is holding for the S&P 500, but that may not be enough given that overall sentiment is really too bullish given the action (our own survey has 62% bulls). I have a suspicion that price on the S&P 500 may break the 200 dma to punish the bullishness. I also think there is an outside chance of a bigger decline within the next few weeks. May 1st is around the corner (historically, May is the beginning of the negative 6 month Dow cycle). By itself, that may not mean much, but if sentiment doesn't back off, it could spell some trouble for the bulls.

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  17. #6645

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand,

    Regrettably, I’m thinking the same thing. The market is looking a bit sick right now.

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  19. #6646

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Definitely agree. I really thought this week would move down a bit and then move upward and break out with All the beats in earnings.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  21. #6647

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Right now I would like to get back to my 2017 closing numbers and move to "G". Yeah I would give up the gains I made early this year but big deal. I'm thinking I would rather finish the year with a small gain then a large deficit.
    May the force be with us.

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  23. #6648

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bounce finally came on Thursday, but can the bulls keep it going?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 was not able to rally enough to test its 50 dma, though it may still happen. The DWCPF closed pretty much right at its 50 dma. Technically, the charts are oscillating up an down, with the DWCPF showing lower highs and higher lows. I would normally be inclined to look for an eventual upside break based on this pattern alone, but we are so deep in the bull cycle and overdue for a major correction (fundamentals suck) that I would be very wary of betting too much on the upside potential of this market. That's not to say it can't break out to the upside; I just don't like the risk profile.

    For now, the charts are neutral.

    Now that the bounce has occurred, I note that futures are pointing moderately lower this evening. With the weekend now in sight, traders may not be inclined to get long given how easily news can drive the action.

    Sentiment remains too bulled up as well. NAAIM is showing some bears beginning to short the market again. They have tended to be right in the short term the past few weeks. The options remain bullish as we head into Friday.

    Breadth bounced and managed to flip positive again. That could mean the bulls are ready to mount another upside attack, but the picture is mixed overall.

    For Friday, I am looking for the market to give back some of Thursday's gains and NAAIM has me thinking that any weakness could also manifest the early part of next week.

    Overall, it's a back and forth battle that could continue for a little while yet before a decisive break up or break down.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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