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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6613

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As I mentioned in my last technical post, a lot of technical indicators were looking bearish. I said that NAAIM was still bullish overall and that this might indicate that a serious decline may not be in the cards...yet. However, the options looked bearish for Friday and I was expecting a test of the previous lows. Friday seemed to be holding together for a bulk of the day, but by mid-afternoon the sellers took control and pounded the market all the way into the close. That is not a bullish sign. Weekly losses across all 3 TSP stock funds were high, with the S&P 500 leading way with a loss of almost 6%.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 closed very near the 200 dma. It did not quite eclipse the February low, but it's close. This is where things are going to get interesting. It may still get broken, but it's entirely possible it will result in a bottom and then a turn back up. If it breaks it and closes significantly lower sometime next week, that will start to call into question whether we are still in a bull market. The DWCPF is bearish too, but not as much as the S&P 500. It has not tested its 200 dma. If it does, the S&P 500 will almost certainly continue its plunge as well.

    Breadth is falling hard and that's a big problem for the bulls. The options look neutral to bearish for Monday. My intermediate term system is negative. Generally, I'd be looking for a low any time now. And maybe we'll get one. But let's look at a longer term chart first.

    S&P 500 LT.jpg

    Here is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 going back to 2010. Note how much steeper price rose since the Presidential election. Also note how much MACD rose (greyish line); especially since late last Summer. It had been very high. Note that it is now falling like a rock over the past few weeks. Now, look at RSI (red line). It was buried to the upside for a while and is now struggling. Nowhere else on this chart do you see RSI above 70. It's also been moving under the 39 day EMA for a while now and looks poised to hit zero and maybe get into negative territory. RSI has not been negative in about 2 years. I can't be sure. But it sure looks like a magnet is trying to pull it down.

    I've been largely bullish for some time, and until last week I could afford to be bullish. Now, not so much. While the longer term chart is looking dicey, the market may continue to be volatile, with price rallying and falling as the bulls and bears battle it out. Heck, we could bottom and make new highs from here, but don't get complacent if it does. This market is coming down sooner or later, it's just a question of when.

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  3. #6614

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The 200 dma on the S&P 500 held as stocks gapped to the upside and closed with big gains to start of the week.

    DWCPF.png
    S&P 500.png

    So, we got the bounce. Now what? I would normally expect an extended move in the opposite direction after a week like last week and especially now that the S&P 500 tagged support. And while it may begin to bias to the upside again, I note that the Arms index is very low, which suggests a counter move in the very short term. That means we could move lower on Tuesday. If it does, it can still be interpreted as bullish as the volatility can mean that a bottom is forming.

    The options are neutral for Tuesday.

    For Tuesday, I'm thinking the market may probe lower again, but a bottom (for now) may be in. Longer term (maybe intermediate term), the market is prone to more selling.

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  5. #6615

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Regarding the discussion of the dollar below, the introduction of the petroyaun today was a major blow. The tariff war is just a side show compared to the real war, currency domination. The dollar fell another half-percent today.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...170000174.html


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  7. #6616

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Regarding the discussion of the dollar below, the introduction of the petroyaun today was a major blow. The tariff war is just a side show compared to the real war, currency domination. The dollar fell another half-percent today.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...170000174.html
    Yes, I am aware. It's part of the trap to take down the CBs. Over 100 years of economic slavery is coming to an end.

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  9. #6617

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As the Arms Index warned, the market reversed Monday's gains on Tuesday. Wednesday then chopped up and down. That's consistent with bottoming action.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price on the S&P 500 is trying retest the 200 dma, but it has fallen short the past 3 days. That's okay, whether it gets retested or not, the market appears to be firming up.

    A lot of technical indicators remains negative, breadth included. That's what you would expect to see before a reversal higher. The options are neutral for Thursday.

    My expectation is for an eventual turn back up. I reentered TNA today at a better price since selling it last week. There is still plenty of risk, but from a technical perspective, this is a good set-up for a multi-day rally. It may still be a few days off, but then again it could come sooner.

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  11. #6618

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market had a nice bounce on Friday, though it gave back some of its gains in late afternoon trading.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    As you know, I am looking for a multi-day turn higher over the days ahead. Friday's rally may be the beginning (it was the last day of the quarter, which might be bullish as quarterly reports begin). I note that both charts show price above their respective 200 dma's, but also below their 50 dma's.

    The options ended Friday neutral, but NAAIM got bearish. Historically, that was good for a short-term contrarian play (up in this case), but that has not been working so well for a little while, so this could be an issue for the bulls next week. However, NAAIM's bearishness is not universally reflected by all of its managers, so I can't read too much into it.

    I note that my intermediate term system may be starting to turn up as some of the signals are leveling out or starting to rise. Breadth has turned back up, but remains negative. One more up day could flip it positive, however.

    So, we'll see how it goes. I am long TNA and C, S and I funds.

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  13. #6619

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Cool-
    any signif to S&P being below 200 day at 2594 ??

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  15. #6620

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was afraid that the bearish spike in NAAIM might be an issue for the bulls this week and the market wasted no time confirming my fear.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF tested its 200 dma today, but did so successfully. The S&P 500, however, closed under its 200 dma, but did not break its February low.

    A retest of the lows was not out of the question, but it wasn't the higher odds outcome. What this is going to do is really bring out the bears. That's bullish. Very bullish. I would be surprised if the market didn't launch into a multi-day rally very soon.

    A lot of stuff turned back down today. I do note that the options are now bullish heading into Tuesday. It's difficult riding this thing when you're long, but the technical picture looks good for a sizable rally at this point.

    If we don't get it soon, the game may have changed.

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  17. #6621

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We bounced. The options suggested we would. But the market didn't retrace all of Monday's losses.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 got back above its 200 dma. But that 50 dma started turning lower more than a week ago. It's possible the top for the year is in, but I know not all skilled traders believe that. In their defense, the market hasn't fallen apart either, so they could be right. Momentum is turning up again. It's negative enough that we could see that multi-day rally start any time. Volume hasn't been huge either, which suggests recent selling pressure was not as serious as it might seem.

    The options are leaning a bit bullish again, but not as much as Tuesday. Breadth remains negative as does my intermediate term system.

    My guess is that we may have more back and forth action coming, but I am expecting that volatility to eventually give way to concerted buying pressure.

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  19. #6622

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Boy, if you're long like I am, today's action was a good test of your meddle. The bears must have been falling all over themselves getting short as the S&P 500 dropped below its 200 dma at the open. I know I wasn't feeling too bullish at that time.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    But, it wasn't long after the open that price began to firm up and start a slow ascent back to the neutral line and eventually beyond as the market closed for decent gains on the day. Momentum on the S&P 500 flipped positive as did breadth!!! Now, we are not out of the woods, but I am feeling more comfortable that a low is in for now. A test of the falling 50 dma may be coming.

    The options are neutral for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning.

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  21. #6623

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got some upside follow through for Thursday. Does it have legs?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF is approaching its falling 50 dma. I suspect it will be tested. The S&P 500 has further to go to do the same. Momentum is rising. Breadth is looking very good the past 2 days. My intermediate term system is improving, but still negative.

    The options look mostly neutral this evening. NAAIM didn't change much, so there is lingering bearishness among some of those money managers. That could mean volatility even if the market continues to claw higher, which I believe it will. I reduced my TNA exposure today, but remain 100% long in TSP stock funds.

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  23. #6624

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    30 minutes after I sold TNA, the after market plunges hard on more tariff talk . If you've been listening to the X22 report, you'll understand what's going on.


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
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