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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6553

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    I should listen to myself more often. Got out Friday morning so I took the 666 point hit. Lucky I was out yesterday. Good luck everyone. Now the dilemma...when to jump back in.
    Just a thought. Watch the numbers and when you get close to what last Friday was jump back in. Or take a chance and jump in today or tomorrow and catch low tide.

    On days like we have had lately it stinks that we only have 2 IFT's to play with.
    May the force be with us.

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  3. #6554

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was all over the place on Tuesday, but ended up the trading session with gains on the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It's hard to say if the worse is over for now. I'm thinking we revisit the lows at the least.

    Heading into Wednesday, the OEX is neutral. The CBOE remains pretty bearish. Breadth bounced, but is still quite negative. My intermediate term system shows signals that are low enough to look for a bottom.

    Volatility will likely remain with us for the time being. The economic recovery is still moving forward, though that doesn't mean much to the powers that be. I would like to think that the sell-off will eventually be met with significant buying pressure as I don't think the Fed holds all of the cards like they once did.

    I remain long for now.

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  5. #6555

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Maybe the double bottom will be signal to jump back in.

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  7. #6556

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    Maybe the double bottom will be signal to jump back in.
    Even if the DB doesn't hold, I can still see this market rally back at some point. I don't think it's a remote possibility either.

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  9. #6557

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was a wild ride today. That's bullish, believe it or not, because the volatility tends to mark bottoms. And this does still remain a bull market.

    The options are bearish for Thursday. TRINQ closed at a very high level, which tends to be bullish. Breadth rose on Tuesday, but went flat on Wednesday.

    The market may not be ready to resume its long term upward trend. Volatility is not likely to dissipate quickly either. There are lots of undercurrents to the market right now, but I'm still betting that the bull finds its feet eventually.

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  11. #6558

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After today's rout, I would expect bearish levels will begin to rise even more.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    NAAIM came in more bearish, but they are not shorting the market. They are still respecting this bull, though they are also limiting long exposure. The options have not updated yet for some reason. Breadth turned back down and remains bearish. My intermediate term system is buried to the downside.

    Obviously, the market is oversold. We are due a bounce once more. The question still remains as to the status of the bull market. We do have a correction in progress, but will it go much deeper? I don't have solid evidence of that, but emotionally it feels that way. I remain long, but not complacent. If we rally again, I will likely lighten up, but will maintain some stock exposure.

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  13. #6559

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Before I provide my usual analysis, I wanted to take a moment to stress to anyone reading my posts that I try to provide an honest assessment of what the indicators are telling me. A good portion of the time I think my analysis is at least worth considering to go along with whatever you the reader are using to make decisions. If the market is allowed to move on its own accord (there are times it is not), technical and sentiment analysis can work great. But there are times when higher level control levels are pulled by those who have the power to do so and they can change the complexion of a market in very short order.

    This is what I am sure is happening now with the recent sell-off. What I don't know, is how deep this may go. Then again, it's possible we're at or near a bottom given the stretched indicators.

    I do not have a crystal ball that can tell me without risk what is going to happen under these circumstances. At least not one that can do so with precision.

    Now, back to our regularly scheduled post.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    All 3 TSP stock charts tested their 200 dma's on Friday and bounced rather hard. That's encouraging if you're a bull. Momentum is buried to the downside, which is bullish. The 200 dma may get tested again, but I am wondering if the 50 dma may get tested on a rally to the upside.

    NAAIM is leaning a bit bearish, but not overly so. The options smart money is neutral for Monday. The CBOE is wildly bearish (dumb money). Interestingly, the TSP Talk sentiment survey, while not a bullish as last week, is still pretty bullish overall. That isn't bullish if this market is looking to shake more weak hands loose.

    Breath is still bearish, but may be trying to put in a bottom.

    Overall, I think there is a good chance the late rally on Friday carries over into Monday, but volatility is likely to still be with us. We are due more upside. I'd prefer to see the bull take control and send the market back to its previous highs, but that's probably wishful thinking on my part. Knowing that the sell-off was not organic forces me to temper my upside expectations.

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  15. #6560

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Grok Trade guy seems to think we will bounce back to one of the trend lines then enter the depths of hell after that. So if true maybe a chance to make some money if you can time it right. I will be sitting tight happily in my G fund and watch from the sidelines until the market settles down again. Good luck everyone with your investments..

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  17. #6561

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    If we seem to be green at Noon tomorrow, I will join you on the sidelines
    Quote Originally Posted by kb9nvh View Post
    Grok Trade guy seems to think we will bounce back to one of the trend lines then enter the depths of hell after that. So if true maybe a chance to make some money if you can time it right. I will be sitting tight happily in my G fund and watch from the sidelines until the market settles down again. Good luck everyone with your investments..


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  19. #6562

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got some decent upside follow through on Monday. That's a good sign, but we are still well below the 50 dma. That average may get tested this week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The options have not reported yet, which is unusual. They were late last week too. Breadth improved, though it's still negative as is my intermediate term system.

    I do remain long in my accounts. I've decided to see if the market can test the 50dma. If it does, (I think it's likely) I'll reassess the prospects of further upside and go from there.

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  21. #6563

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today's initial downside pressure wasn't able to last the trading day as the averages clawed back to close for moderate gains. That's a good sign for the bulls.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is rising and not far from turning positive. The 50 dma may serve as a magnet to pull price up for a test sooner or later.

    The options are showing the smart and dumb money both leaning bearish for Wednesday. That's neutral. Breadth remains negative, but it seems to be trying to recover. TRIN and TRINQ are both neutral. My intermediate term system remains negative, but the signals are improving.

    So, the market has rallied 3 days in a row since tagging the 200 dma. It may be forming a bear flag, but I'm not bearish here. The 50 dma will be key if the market can test it. That will help define the months ahead depending on how that test goes.

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  23. #6564

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk


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