Page 543 of 703 FirstFirst ... 43443493533541542543544545553593643 ... LastLast
Results 6,505 to 6,516 of 8436

Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6505

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,

    i agree with you. It’s awesome but scarey at the same time. A pullback of 4-5% would be heathy for the markets, especially if I can be in the G fund before it happens ��. I look forward to your daily analysis which is one of the best in this forum.

  2.  
  3. #6506

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We are in uncharted territory, which is why calling sell-offs is so hard in this market. A reversal can happen, of course, but it could come from much higher. The sells I got last week cost me money as I exited stocks looking to buy a dip and promptly watched price continue to rise. The tools I use to gauge market direction don't work the way they once did. I've had to incorporate some degree of political analysis, which I generally don't share, to help me frame the correct point of view. NAAIM helps me a lot, because that's smart money that is almost certain to have some degree of inside information.

    While anything can happen in the short-term, keep in mind that we may have to endure a shot down that comes quick and reverses fairly quick too. Many have been on the outside looking in and are desperately looking for a chance to buy. Trying to time that is likely going to be very challenging. For these reasons, it's the longer term I am focused on. I feel more comfortable with that perspective. And right now we likely have months of upside to go, pullbacks notwithstanding.

  4.  
  5. #6507

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market came roaring out the gate on Tuesday and appeared poised to pick up where it left off last week. Alas, it reversed and gave back all of its gains and then some. Small caps once again led the way to the downside. My TNA position topped at around $80 and fell to as low as about $74.25 before retracing about a dollar above that. By contrast, the S&P 500 (SPXL) saw nowhere near the volatility.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We have some larger than normal red candlesticks today, but they aren't as ugly as they seem given the large upside retracement. Still, the market was overdone and the downside may not be over. But how comfortable can the bears be? It's as though the market is daring them to go for it.

    The OEX is neutral (smart money). The CBOE is bullish (dumb money), which is bearish, but this indicator has been mixed at best. Breadth fell, but remains quite bullish for now.

    The bearish case is hardly compelling right now. Today's reversal could be the bulk of the downside we're going to get. It's as I've said, the selling could come from higher and it did. I am just not certain how much more we can expect, if any (short-term). Perhaps we chop around for a bit now. We'll just have to see.


  6.  
  7. #6508

    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Bloomington, Indiana
    Posts
    322

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The market came roaring out the gate on Tuesday and appeared poised to pick up where it left off last week. Alas, it reversed and gave back all of its gains and then some. Small caps once again led the way to the downside. My TNA position topped at around $80 and fell to as low as about $74.25 before retracing about a dollar above that. By contrast, the S&P 500 (SPXL) saw nowhere near the volatility.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We have some larger than normal red candlesticks today, but they aren't as ugly as they seem given the large upside retracement. Still, the market was overdone and the downside may not be over. But how comfortable can the bears be? It's as though the market is daring them to go for it.

    The OEX is neutral (smart money). The CBOE is bullish (dumb money), which is bearish, but this indicator has been mixed at best. Breadth fell, but remains quite bullish for now.

    The bearish case is hardly compelling right now. Today's reversal could be the bulk of the downside we're going to get. It's as I've said, the selling could come from higher and it did. I am just not certain how much more we can expect, if any (short-term). Perhaps we chop around for a bit now. We'll just have to see.
    Exciting times...are there any bubbles out there to burst like before? I just hope we get back to a normal climb..rocket sleds to the moon scare me.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
    100% G fund COB 12/22/2023 Was 80%G 20%C

  8.  
  9. #6509

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Guess yesterday was a rollercoaster rather than a parabolic outcome. Futures up nicely again today. See what happens.

  10.  
  11. #6510

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We r kicking butt on TSP funds today. Dow 26k!

    Sent from my Z981 using Tapatalk

  12.  
  13. #6511

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    We r kicking butt on TSP funds today. Dow 26k!

    Sent from my Z981 using Tapatalk
    Well on the C & I Funds maybe. As for the S Fund, it is merely making back most of yesterday's losses.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

  14.  
  15. #6512

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    That was yesterday this is today. I'll take a .87 % any day.

    Sent from my Z981 using Tapatalk

  16.  
  17. #6513

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The selling pressure sure didn't last long, but I suppose we could still see an attempt to test the low again. I wouldn't bet the farm on it though.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I know some folks keep looking over their shoulder thinking something is gaining on them, but I am not one of them. The bearish headlines are always out there. The biggest one right now is the potential for a Government shutdown.

    Who says the market wouldn't rally on such an event? The market doesn't always act the way we think it should. If it were that easy, we'd all be rich.

    Anyway, we bounced. Dips should be bought. That's what I was alluding to a couple of days ago. Shot lower and quick move back to the upside. Don't blink or you may miss it.

    For tomorrow, the options are on the bearish side, but the smart money is neutral. The dumb money is very bullish, which was bearish, but that's how they were today and we rallied. The options can be hit or miss if you're using them to help predict market direction. Breadth turned back up. There is no technical damage to the charts. I have no reason to look for serious selling pressure when there is little resistance (if any at all) above current price levels. Futures are currently up. Imagine that.

  18.  
  19. #6514

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thursday saw the market pull back modestly. Price remains not far off the all-time highs.

    The OEX is bearish for Friday. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains bullish (zero short bears). Breadth is bullish as is liquidity. TRINQ is very low, which does suggest weakness for Friday.

    So, I'm looking for a bit more selling on Friday, but it's a buying opportunity if we get it.

  20.  
  21. #6515

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I said on Thursday that I thought we might get a bit more selling, but that it would be a buying opportunity if we got. As it turned out, we really didn't see much selling as price continues to drift to the upside leaving many on the sidelines staring in disbelief. The market's reaction to a Government shutdown (at this point, anyway) is not what some thought it would be. Will Monday see a reversal? It might, but we're due a pullback anyway, so it would not be a surprise if some selling occurs on Monday instead.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    NAAIM remains bullish overall with zero short bears. The options are neutral for Monday. Breadth has been up and down the past few days, but biased to the upside in any event. TRIN and TRINQ closed moderately higher on Friday, which at face value is somewhat bullish for Monday.

    Nothing has changed. The market remains bullish and will likely stay that way for some time yet. There are some interesting changes occurring, such as the weakness in bonds and the dollar, but I don't want to read too much into that at this time. It could be bullish for the market as money fleeing bonds may be heading into stocks. And a falling dollar is good for international trade. It just depends on how you want to perceive what's happening.

  22.  
  23. #6516

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,794
    Blog Entries
    1229

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Are you long yet?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The rally of a lifetime is still alive and well and likely has much more upside coming in the months ahead.

    The options are modestly bullish to neutral for Tuesday. Breadth is hitting fresh highs (again). The feared Government Shutdown is over for the moment (and the market really didn't care all that much).

    It really isn't necessary for me to pontificate about indicators in any big detail. The charts tell you everything (above). And the EFA looks the same way.

    It's tough to buy dips in this market. Market timing the TSP in this market environment is especially difficult under the circumstances. And yes, I am a market timer. But I know when the odds are usually against me and it does not pay to be anything other than a bull right now.


  24.  
Page 543 of 703 FirstFirst ... 43443493533541542543544545553593643 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes