Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Woohoo my brothers! Let the good times roll!

Originally Posted by Robo5555

Woohoo my brothers! Let the good times roll!

As long as China is buying our debt! Let them roll!

Absolutely!

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Pls let me state for the record that I'm not highjacking this Soo much important thread. CH is the man! Thank you for all you do for us.

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Sorry I took so long to post. I've been away from home all day and got back late.

I thought we might see lingering weakness that turned to strength on Thursday, but we only got strength. Sorry for missing that call.

I said early in the week that buy and hold is probably the best way to play this market for now and Thursday was evidence of that. I am going 100% stocks in TSP on Friday. Please keep in mind that my TSP account is not my primary account. I transferred my entire balance last summer into a self-directed account. I still have contributions going into TSP, but my balance is modest. I've been long TNA in my IRA, which was up more than 5% today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

No explanation should be needed for these charts. They are overbought, but are emphatically telling you what direction we're headed.

It is very hard to trust sell signals in this market. All you can do is hold on for the ride and hope to recognize the top, which is difficult at best. Having said that, any top would almost certainly be short-term. I suspect there may be much more upside in the weeks ahead. Now, having said that, don't get overly bullish either. We can be bullish and optimistic and we certainly have good reason for being so, but the market can punish us when we least expect it. I am just following the indicators (with an eye on political maneuverings), which is not the same thing as a crystal ball (it sometimes seems that way).

For tomorrow, we're overbought and could get a pullback after Thursday's pop. The options are mostly neutral. NAAIM came in neutral, but is still leaning bullish and there are no bears in the reading. They know better than to get in front of a train. Breadth hit a fresh all-time high again.

Sit back and enjoy the action. I'm going 40/40/20 CSI on Friday.

Just before I read this I increased my position from 2020 fund to 2022 fund (I revised balances to what 2020 was 2 years ago). This puts me 50% invested half G, 25% C, 14% I, 6% S, 5% F which is what 2020 was two years ago. I didn't want to extend to the 2030 fund so I know i have to rebalance myself now as holdings change. I trust this market and I have time before I need to pull out any money (3 years probably).

I redistributed to C 33, S 33, & I 34. Was all in but heavier on the small caps. Let's see what happens with this even spread.

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Ok, will someone educate me please. I am seriously confused. I am 100% in the I fund. Day before yesterday, the graph for the MSCI EAFE which the I fund mirrors, finished what appeared to be flat but when I came in yesterday and looked, the I fund in the TSP showed that it was up moderately; enough to give me a couple hundred dollar gain. Then yesterday, the MSCI EAFE graph showed a day long spike upward and the day finished what I thought was .63 gain, which should have translated into a good gain for me on the TSP but when I came in this morning, the tsp shows I had a little over 1 cent gain per share. What gives???? The other funds reacted as expected but I just don't get this I fund.

Originally Posted by CrgButcher

Ok, will someone educate me please. I am seriously confused. I am 100% in the I fund. Day before yesterday, the graph for the MSCI EAFE which the I fund mirrors, finished what appeared to be flat but when I came in yesterday and looked, the I fund in the TSP showed that it was up moderately; enough to give me a couple hundred dollar gain. Then yesterday, the MSCI EAFE graph showed a day long spike upward and the day finished what I thought was .63 gain, which should have translated into a good gain for me on the TSP but when I came in this morning, the tsp shows I had a little over 1 cent gain per share. What gives???? The other funds reacted as expected but I just don't get this I fund.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-i-fund/

Read the sticky notes under this to understand how Fair Valuation (FV) works and why it exists for the I Fund.

I guess we had a good week last week (yeah, that's an understatement).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The S&P 500 has that vertical look to it now. It's very overbought, but I am not bearish on that fact. Small caps are finally helping the DWCPF catch up a little bit.

NAAIM remains bullish overall, though neutral in the present. I wasn't paying a lot of attention to the TSP Talk survey, but it's been highly bullish for months now. I've suspected for some time that sentiment was not a particularly good tool (except for NAAIM) to use in assessing market direction. At least not as a contrarian indicator. I haven't even looked at AAII in quite a while now. The options are bullish for Tuesday. Breadth is bullish (of course). The trend is up!

We're due a pullback, but I am not looking for anything serious in the short term. Getting bearish in this market can be counter productive.

Yes CH, great week last week....and check the futures for today! Looks like a great start for this week as well. This is going parabolic. Awesome to be in the invested side and a lil scary as well. I've been around for a while so you know what I mean. I'm going to keep riding this wave for now. Check this link out. They are predicting a 4-5% pullback into Feb.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...ach-2018-01-16