Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Next week should be interesting.

Judging from the futures this evening, the market may be about to punish the bears once again. If we gap higher in the morning, I'm hoping it sticks and climbs higher as the day wears on. At some point there may be a point of recognition that this thing is for real and many more may start piling in. We can go parabolic on that kind of emotion.

👍Let's make hay while the sun shines, we know this can't last forever. However, it may well end up being the move of a lifetime if you're right!

Being retired, I may meet my five year investment goal in one! 😎

As always man, thanks for sharing your work, it is greatly appreciated!

In my last post, I said I was hoping we'd gap higher Monday and climb higher as the day wore on. We got the gap, but not the go. In fact, the reversal wiped out everything and then some. I was sporting about a 4.5% gain in TNA in the early going and ended up with a 1% loss by the close. I don't like to see that kind of action. It tends to be bearish, but this is not an ordinary market and the reversal just puts me in a neutral stance in the short term.

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Volume has been high in recent days. We are still overbought on the S&P 500. Momentum has been turned back down, but price is still not far off its all-time high.

Breadth remains very bullish, but has mostly flat-lined. The options data is not ready as I write this, so I don't know how they are positioned for Tuesday yet.

I'll try to post an update early Tuesday morning with the options data.

The options are mildly bearish for Tuesday. Futures are up in the wee morning hours. I am certain that another run to the upside is coming despite the selling interest. The selling is indicative of bears who are fighting a bull market. How has that gone for them over the past several years?

Originally Posted by coolhand

The options are mildly bearish for Tuesday. Futures are up in the wee morning hours. I am certain that another run to the upside is coming despite the selling interest. The selling is indicative of bears who are fighting a bull market. How has that gone for them over the past several years?

Thanks..love having you here and hearing your insights!!

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The selling continued on Tuesday and it looks like Wednesday could see a continuation of downside pressure as the options smart money is leaning heavily bearish. I note that TRINQ closed at a very high level, which often presages a reversal. But Wednesday is Weird Wolly Wednesday, so things could get interesting.

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Breath has turned down, but is not bearish. The S&P 500 exited its overbought condition yesterday. Momentum is falling. Overall, it looks like another buying opportunity is shaping up. I have no intent to bet against this market even as I endure a draw-down on my positions.

I usually pull out for the first couple of weeks in Dec. They are seasonably tough. Then its time for the Santa rally and I'm back in before mid month. I believe this mini pullback is heathy. This year so far I've stayed in playing against my strategy. Do not want to step out and miss an early train. Any thoughts?

Originally Posted by Robo5555

I usually pull out for the first couple of weeks in Dec. They are seasonably tough. Then its time for the Santa rally and I'm back in before mid month. I believe this mini pullback is heathy. This year so far I've stayed in playing against my strategy. Do not want to step out and miss an early train. Any thoughts?

It is very healthy. We are okay in that regard. I agree with the potential for an early train. The potential upside can be triggered when we are not expecting it, so being on the sidelines is risky. That's why I'm riding the volatility in TNA.

From a technical perspective, the action the last few days is corrective in nature, which means the bull market remains intact and that higher prices are very likely by Christmas.

NAAIM reports today.

Sentiment unchanged from last week a third bulls, neutrals, and bears. A buy in my book.

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