Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Today was a wild day as the indexes seemed to be moving in different directions. Probably because they were. The Naz got whacked for 1.27%, the S&P 500 was almost unchanged with a loss of 0.04%, the DOW was up 0.44%, and the DWCPF gained a modest 0.1%. The Russell 2000 was higher by 0.38%.

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DWCPF.png

So the charts for the S&P 500 and DWCPF did not change much overall. The action was suspicious so it will be interesting to see if market character is changing over the days ahead. I think the market is gearing up for a serious rally, but not all boats may be lifted if the Naz is any indication.

The options are showing the smart and dumb money both leaning bullish. I would not bet against that, though some weakness is not out of the question. But as I said yesterday, the path of least resistance is currently up.

If you like precious metals, silver is hitting a 2 month low. I like to buy silver eagles on the dips, so I'm watching the chart closely for signs of a turn (SLV) before I snap up a roll or 5.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I'm anticipating more bullishness from them.

As the market tries to grind higher, the sellers have been selling strength and that's tempering short term gains. I think it's a mistake to sell this market though. Breadth hit a new all-time high yesterday and that's key to what to expect moving forward. I'm talking mid to long term, not the next day or 3. We may be witnessing a parabolic move that will leave many looking like a deer in the headlights. Just my perspective based on the charts.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

And there is nothing bearish about these charts from a longer term perspective. Yes, RSI is overbought, but in a market with strong breadth and no overhead resistance, I'd not worry about that too much.

The options are neutral. As expected, NAAIM got more bullish. They have been leaning bullish for a long time now and have not been wrong. Again, that's the longer term perspective.

It appears the market is going to open lower this morning. I'm taking it as a buying opportunity.

Coolhand, what is your take on fund bias/allocation? I went 100% S, though C outperformed... Thanks!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Coolhand, what is your take on fund bias/allocation? I went 100% S, though C outperformed... Thanks!

I'm taking an educated guess that if the tax cuts get implemented (I think it's just a matter of time, BS political maneuvering notwithstanding) that the economy will begin to really get some traction. Small caps will likely do best in that scenario. I also think you may see a rotation out of some high flying silicon valley stocks as well. Not absolutely sure about that, but some are near the center of the political firestorm that has been playing out. I don't think it will bode well for them if the current administration continues to rack up wins (the majority population are in that camp (MSM polls mean nothing or are contrarian indicators)). I suspect that some very large companies are going to be broken apart in the months/years ahead. Too much power has been consolidated among them and that makes them a target. I'm talking about a wealth transfer to better level the playing field and neutralize the power grab among the loftiest at the top of the food chain. I'm just not sure of the timing or how it will actually play out.

Tanking so far this morning.

Flynn plead guilty of lying to FBI, all politics

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Yes. This was not entirely unexpected. There is an internal war going on within the deep state and this event is just one more salvo. Things are likely to get ugly and volatility will likely rise with it. This is the elephant in the room.

If I was out I would get in on this dip.

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Plus I would not be surprised if they advance on the tax bill and finish positive today.

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Originally Posted by Robo5555

Plus I would not be surprised if they advance on the tax bill and finish positive today.

Sent from my Z981 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

Most of the losses have already been wiped out.

Friday was a wild ride as the market plunged on political news, but it recovered most of its losses by the close.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

You can see the long tails on Friday's candlesticks.

We could be in for more volatile action in the days/weeks ahead, so be prepared for a possible emotional roller coaster. I don't have any real idea of how things play out other than to watch technical indicators and sentiment.

NAAIM got more bullish last week and are not shorting this market. The options look a bit bearish for Monday. The TSP Talk sentiment survey is overdone at 64% bulls. That's troubling and could trigger more selling pressure in the short term; especially with the options leaning bearish.

Breadth still looks very good and that's a big deal for the bulls. Overall, the indicators say to remain invested.