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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6409

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday turned out to be a good day for the bulls and that paints a more bullish picture heading into the holiday. Any retest of the lows would have been more likely to happen by now.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 may not be doing much at the moment, but the DWCPF hit a fresh all-time closing high just 3 days after closing below its 50 dma. And it looks poised to add to those gains too as the index closed near its high of the day to boot. Momentum is turning up from a lengthy, but controlled downward trend and has room to run to the upside before getting overbought.

    The options are neutral for Tuesday. Breadth remains bullish. At this point, any pullback we get should be bought as we approach the beginning of the most seasonally positive time of year.

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  3. #6410

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It sure hasn't taken long for the market to hit high fresh all-time highs after biasing sideways to down for more than a month. Tuesday's action was not unexpected given how the small cap space acted on Monday. The DWCPF did not look like it was ready for a reversal and now we can see that in fact it wasn't.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Today's action shows price closing not far off its high of the day and remember, there is no resistance above.

    Breadth is also hitting fresh highs. The options are neutral. Momentum is rising again. It appears that the bull is back in charge once more (or maybe he was the whole time). At this point, even if we get some weakness, it's best to stay long as the upside could be much higher over the weeks ahead. We'll let the market be our guide on that point.

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  5. #6411

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Here's to hoping when the end of December rolls around, we're still at all-time highs for the market! $$

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  7. #6412

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This market actually had some signals calling for some selling last week, but there was very little of that. I note that breadth is hitting all-time highs again, and we know we should not bet against that as it indicates this market has some sponsorship.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that both charts are sitting at or near their all-time high.

    Sentiment shows that TSP Talk got slightly less bullish, but bullish nonetheless. NAAIM got more bullish and those that were short aren't anymore. That's bullish. The options are neutral.

    Breadth.png

    Breadth is hitting all-time highs. Bears beware.

    We are now entering the more bullish time of the year as the indexes plumb new highs. I don't think we can look at that from a contrarian point of view. There are those who very much want this market higher. I remain bullish longer term.

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  9. #6413

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Aside from technicals, I see major political matters as the cause of recent bullish momentum and, the potential for retreat on the order of 5% if there is a stall or major revision of the tax proposal. A toss up.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

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  11. #6414

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Aside from technicals, I see major political matters as the cause of recent bullish momentum and, the potential for retreat on the order of 5% if there is a stall or major revision of the tax proposal. A toss up.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk
    I've seen major political matters for as long as I can remember.... But I'm not oblivious to them either . I don't think the Fed has the control it once had over the markets. I really don't. The battle lines are not just across political lines, but also along central bank lines. I don't know how it all plays out so I try to focus on technical indicators.

    Aside from the tax proposal situation, how much rally can we expect from a few top level swamp creatures being removed from office (there are plenty of them about now).

    One can only hope.

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  13. #6415

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Aside from the tax proposal situation, how much rally can we expect from a few top level swamp creatures being removed from office (there are plenty of them about now).
    One can only hope.
    Usually I just like your posts, but today I just couldn't resist responding and hopefully I don't get myself in to much hot water with Tom for making a political statement. Regarding those swamp creatures, it is just embarrassing the reasons they are being asked to resign. You would think they would learn their lesson but ala Bill Clinton they have brought shame to the office they hold. Perhaps it is time for the American people to demand term limits for those in Congress.

    As for the tax reform question, there is no doubt a bill will be passed. If for no other reason than self preservation of their cushy jobs. I went to the G fund on Friday with the thought that we will see a lot of fighting amongst our elected officials and the markets reacting to every negative word. So in my own self preserving way I am gambling that the market goes down this week, but eventually the politicians will pass a bill and we will end up with a nice Santa rally.

    Thanks again for your great commentary!
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  15. #6416

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Usually I just like your posts, but today I just couldn't resist responding and hopefully I don't get myself in to much hot water with Tom for making a political statement. Regarding those swamp creatures, it is just embarrassing the reasons they are being asked to resign. You would think they would learn their lesson but ala Bill Clinton they have brought shame to the office they hold. Perhaps it is time for the American people to demand term limits for those in Congress.

    As for the tax reform question, there is no doubt a bill will be passed. If for no other reason than self preservation of their cushy jobs. I went to the G fund on Friday with the thought that we will see a lot of fighting amongst our elected officials and the markets reacting to every negative word. So in my own self preserving way I am gambling that the market goes down this week, but eventually the politicians will pass a bill and we will end up with a nice Santa rally.

    Thanks again for your great commentary!
    There is much that is wrong with our system, but hopefully it will be fixed in the years to come. My main point was not so much political, but that the market can react to just about anything in some manner that could blindside many. There is a lot going on under the surface that has yet to become common public knowledge. How the market deals with these revelations as they break free is unknown, but again, it will likely catch many by surprise.

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  17. #6417

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It would appear the question is not tax plan passage, but the extent of watering down to achieve such or, perhaps, some other special favors to preserve GOP majority votes and the proposal as is. And, once known - will this news be bought or sold?

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk


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  19. #6418

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    It would appear the question is not tax plan passage, but the extent of watering down to achieve such or, perhaps, some other special favors to preserve GOP majority votes and the proposal as is. And, once known - will this news be bought or sold?

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk
    This is why I follow NAAIM. These insiders may know things that we mere mortals do not. And right now they are bullish.

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  21. #6419

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No charts this evening. Not much has changed. The options remain neutral.

    In my previous post, I mentioned that I follow NAAIM because some of them may have information that we are not generally privy to, but I have other measures of risk that I do not share. They too are showing no risk to this market.

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  23. #6420

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Hopefully, no one got caught on the wrong side of today's rally. The path of least resistance is up as there is no resistance above. Liquidity continues to drive this market and I see no reason (technically) for that to change.

    And it ain't even the holidays yet.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 is now overbought (so what) after today's launch. The DWCPF is right behind.

    The options show the smart money neutral, but the dumb money is leaning heavily bullish. Now, that's bearish, but in a market making new highs on record breadth I'd not get too bearish on that alone, though a pullback is certainly reasonable. Just don't look for anything deep.

    I'm long TNA (still) in my brokerage account and mostly S fund in TSP (no, I have not been using the tracker). There is too much chance of much bigger gains this month to get wobbly knees. The indicators say to remain invested.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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