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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6385

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    With the OEX bearish for Friday, I was looking lower to close out the week, though I was not looking for a big move lower.

    Not only did we not really get any weakness on Friday, the S&P 500 gapped higher and closed at yet another all-time high on increasing volume. I've said on several occasions recently that even as I may be leaning lower sentiment wise, I was not inclined to short this market. Friday probably surprised some bears (even a few money managers at NAAIM got short). In fact, the last time some of those money managers at NAAIM went short, the market rallied and they eventually took those shorts off. But as a whole, NAAIM has largely remained bullish despite occasional pockets of bearishness.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So we have a snap back rally to end the week last week. Momentum turned back up on the S&P 500, though RSI is back in an overbought condition.

    I am not sure at this point, but I am a bit suspicious of Friday's rally. Then again, this is a bull market. The smart money (OEX) was bearish for Friday and the market rallied. Now they are bullish for Monday (as is the CBOE). I don't like to mention politics in my market analysis, but CNN was leaked information about an indictment coming on Monday surrounding the alleged Trump/Russia connection (no, I don't buy it). This is all smoke and mirrors, but it's the kind of news item that can be used to move the market if the powers that be desire such (I'm guessing down, but you never know). Maybe nothing comes of it, but it will be interesting to see if it appears to play a role. I just wanted to throw that out there because it has the potential to screw up my technical analysis.

    So, the OEX is bullish as is the CBOE on Monday. That's rather neutral to my eye. NAAIM saw a few managers take short positions, but overall the group remains bullish. Breadth went positive again. To me, any downside is likely still limited. The breakout by the S&P 500 is bullish at face value and the indexes largely have no resistance above. I am looking higher for Monday, but still leave open the possibility for a small correction over the days ahead.

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  3. #6386

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While I was looking for higher for Monday, I said I left the door open for a small correction as well. I just was not seeing enough evidence to look very deep. We got some selling pressure on Monday, but it wasn't too bad. This is where the bears have to be very careful now. Monday's weakness will likely be reversed on Tuesday, but more importantly I think that fresh highs over the days ahead are likely.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    There is no real price damage on these charts; just consolidated gains.

    The options are neutral to bullish for Tuesday. Breadth went neutral again, but I suspect it will turn back up. Don't be surprised if this market breaks out again as the week plays out. The bears can't get any downside traction.

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  5. #6387

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's weakness gave way to a reversal on Tuesday, which was expected. The downside does indeed remain limited.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both the S&P 500 and the DWCPF got back most or all of their Monday losses Tuesday. The bears continue to be frustrated by this market.

    The options are rather neutral heading into Wednesday. We may see another reversal on Wednesday, but the inability for the bears to get downside traction is a warning to them. If you can handle the volatility, you will likely be rewarded with more gains as head toward the holidays.

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  7. #6388

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking higher for Wednesday, but knew that volatility might still be a factor, which is was; especially for small caps, which started out at a multi-day high and then collapsed to its multi-day low. The S fund's loss on the day was centered around their performance.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I was disappointed that the bulls could not get some thing going and now the market is back in neutral. The options are neutral for Thursday. Breadth is positive, but not moving sideways. TRIN is a bit low as is TRINQ. That may mean more weakness for Thursday. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    The tax bill being debated in Congress may keep a lid on this market. I had hoped for an upside push, but the sellers stepped in today to quell a breakout. Other traders that I follow are getting a bit frustrated on both side of the trade. For now, the bulls still have overall control in despite the up/down action.

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  9. #6389

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After starting out the gate in negative fashion, the market found its feet yet again to eventually close out the day with a gain.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Still no break either way. NAAIM came in a bit more bearish, but not much. This group remains bullish overall, but cautious. The options are bullish for Friday. Breadth is positive, but still tracking sideways. TRINQ close at a high level, which is bullish for Friday.

    It think the market tries to head higher again on Friday, though a serious breakout is probably not in the cards yet.

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  11. #6390

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    For a number of trading days now, this market has seemingly been going nowhere. That's what the DWCPF has been doing anyway. But if you look at the S&P 500, it closed at yet another all-time on Friday.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    For next week, NAAIM is cautiously bullish. The options are neutral for Monday. My intermediate term system is only a hair from going negative. That has not meant much for some time now, but it is what it is. Breadth is still positive, but stalled. I note that TRINQ closed at a very low level on Friday, which is bearish for Monday in the tech sector.

    For now, this market obviously remains a bull. I have no reason to expect that to change anytime soon, though a minor correction can happen at any time. It's just darn hard to bet on it. In terms of tops, sentiment is nowhere near a level that suggests we are near a top. For those looking out longer term, it's probably best to stay long, though having some measure of cash on the sidelines is not a bad idea should a decent dip present itself. The risk however, is missing the next big move to the upside.


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  13. #6391

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yet another all-time closing high for the S&P 500 today. Are you seeing a theme here?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Tuesday will likely see more upside pressure given Monday's lack of weakness. Wednesday is Weird Wollie Wednesday, which can be a wild card given OPEX is Friday. That means any strength now can reverse as the big boyz play their profit grabbing games.

    The options are neutral for Tuesday. Breadth looks good and is on the upswing as is momentum. I am not anticipating a big upside breakout this week, but certainly the bulls remain in charge so staying long remains my favored position.

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  15. #6392

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand....you cursed the markets! I didn't know you had such contrarian powers

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  17. #6393

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Yet another all-time closing high for the S&P 500 today. Are you seeing a theme here?
    I do know that whenever I thought that myself...it meant complacency and confidence was so high, that the downtown express was getting ready to leave the station.

    But you called it right a few weeks ago, late Sep, saying we were not at a top. I should have listened to you back then and would have snagged a bit more $$.
    But the tricky part is always the same...when do you step off the uptown train, before it heads downtown. The conductor doesn't always announce the last stop.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  19. #6394

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    I do know that whenever I thought that myself...it meant complacency and confidence was so high, that the downtown express was getting ready to leave the station.

    But you called it right a few weeks ago, late Sep, saying we were not at a top. I should have listened to you back then and would have snagged a bit more $$.
    But the tricky part is always the same...when do you step off the uptown train, before it heads downtown. The conductor doesn't always announce the last stop.
    It's not an easy game. As far as complacency goes, I don't think this market is being driven so much by that as political control of the markets by strong opposing forces.

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  21. #6395

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    Coolhand....you cursed the markets! I didn't know you had such contrarian powers
    I expected some selling, but thought it would hold off until Wednesday. The RUT continues to drag the DWCPF down.

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  23. #6396

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While the S&P 500 continued to edge higher today, the DWCPF probed lower, but bounced to a positive close. I suspect we may have seen some sort of bottom today, but momentum has not turned back up yet.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I'm looking higher for Thursday and maybe even into the end of the week. There is still plenty of negative technical indicators, but they are not doing a log of price damage across the broader market. It really seems like we are setting up for another move higher, but it is definitely taking its time (broader market, not S&P 500). The EFA continues to do well too.

    The options are neutral. Breadth is positive, but neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    As I said above, I am looking higher now that we are past WWW, but I don't have strong evidence of such. I also don't have strong evidence of a decline. The trend is still up and that's the primary concern when positioning for more than the short term.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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