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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6349

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Are there any bears left? Only if they're hedged.

    S&P 500.png

    Even a technical novice can read this chart. Yeah, it's overbought and momentum is starting to get buried to the upside, but would you be willing to bet against this rally?

    DWCPF.png

    Same story here.

    So, breadth dipped on Wednesday (modestly) and then turned to hit fresh all-time highs today. NAAIM came in bullish again (there's a surprise). The options are neutral for Friday. My intermediate term system is bullish.

    We're overbought. By itself, that isn't enough to bet too much against this market. But we sure are due for some profit taking, though with breadth and liquidity plastered to the overhead it would be very speculative to bet against more upside.

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  3. #6350

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The C and S funds tacked on impressive weekly gains yet again last week. The I fund was largely flat.

    S&P 500.png

    Price on the S&P 500 pulled back just a bit on Friday. RSI remains overbought, while momentum stalled.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF also dipped on Friday. RSI remains overbought here as well.

    Sentiment is fairly bullish. NAAIM certainly remained bullish as they have for months now. The options are on the neutral side. TSP Talk came in heavily beared up and that might be a problem for the bulls, but in this market I'd not bet big on it. Cumulative breadth dipped on Friday, but remains solidly bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish, but is showing possible signs of upside fatigue and there's an outside chance it's beginning to hint at a pullback of more than modest proportion on the horizon. With the bearish TSP Talk sentiment and early weakening of my intermediate term system, the market may be nearing a bout of downside pressure. Still, the indicators overall are too bullish as yet to take that very seriously.

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  5. #6351

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both indexes closed lower to start the new week. Momentum is turning down and RSI remains overbought. The options are leaning bearish for Tuesday, so maybe some downside follow through? It's likely a buying opportunity if we get it.

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  7. #6352

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Hope it is a buying opportunity, So that we can continue to the upside.

    Sent from my Z981 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

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  9. #6353

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I need to amend my comments below for Tuesday. The options are bullish, not bearish, so we'll likely bounce. Wednesday has a better chance of some downside follow through.

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  11. #6354

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said the options were leaning bullish and that Monday's weakness would probably be followed by a bounce a Tuesday. Check. I also said that Wednesday was the more likely day for another bout of weakness. The options are leaning bearish, so we have a reasonable chance for some downside action. However, this market is not acting like one that is on the verge of a major sell-off. Breadth turned back up and is and has been very bullish. The bulls are still very much in control. I'm looking to buy weakness.


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  13. #6355

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Concur. Fools errand fighting market strength and liquidity. Guess I'm a buyer on any weakness at all...

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  15. #6356

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No change to my current market expectations. I patiently waited for a better entry to go long, but this market is more likely to go parabolic than sell down hard. So I took a long position in TNA. This may not be a short-term trade. I think there is just too much potential upside as we slowly head toward the holidays to try and second guess this market. Breadth is still rising. The options are now neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Any bets they're not heavily bullish?

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  17. #6357

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesE View Post
    Concur. Fools errand fighting market strength and liquidity. Guess I'm a buyer on any weakness at all...
    Went in 50% I fund. If things go south, I'm pushing the rest in. EFA is the big winner this year, writing is on the wall.

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  19. #6358

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I agree with you, some investors are saying that we are on the hill approaching a cliff but I believe that dip buyers and tailwind will keep us away from the cliff. As CH stated, holidays are around the corner as well. This could be one of those years that the I fund may reach a high twenty to a thirty percent gain and the C & S funds approach the twenty percent range. Any thoughts?

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  21. #6359

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    I agree with you, some investors are saying that we are on the hill approaching a cliff but I believe that dip buyers and tailwind will keep us away from the cliff. As CH stated, holidays are around the corner as well. This could be one of those years that the I fund may reach a high twenty to a thirty percent gain and the C & S funds approach the twenty percent range. Any thoughts?
    While some of the main sentiment surveys I follow are largely on the bullish side, many others show significant bearishness. NAAIM has been bullish for a long time now and they've not been wrong when taken in the long-term context. Breadth and liquidity will continue to trample the bears as long as they remain in their current configurations. We can't know the future with certainty, but it sure looks bullish to my eye. If anything changes, I'll certainly pass that along.

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  23. #6360

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Agreed. Within the trading restrictions of tsp, have to take these opportunities when they come around. If there is a dip of any kind I'm pushing my other 50% in.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
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