Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Let's hope a correction doesn't take us too much by surprise. Loving the new highs. September has been good overall.

It's surprising a lot of seasoned pros; many of whom were expecting a deeper correction over the Summer. But October has been known to dish out surprises on occasion.

Humm... that is kinda what I'm counting on... Will see... Gotta jump in some day! Best wishes to you!

Feeling like I completely missed the party this Summer. uggh

Originally Posted by coolhand

Fresh highs again on Thursday. Breadth remains on a tear to the upside. The options are on the bearish side for Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish and the shift was large enough to be bearish in the very short term. We may see some selling over the next couple of days or so, but breadth may very well temper any downside. I don't see any serious downside risk as yet.

He has been calling for a melt-up since the beginning of the yr. He has been correct.

You STILL Haven't Missed the 'Melt Up' Yet!

Originally Posted by Valkyrie

He has been calling for a melt-up since the beginning of the yr. He has been correct.

You STILL Haven't Missed the 'Melt Up' Yet!

He's one of the ones I used to be plugged into. Is he recommending the NAZ and RUT?

Originally Posted by coolhand

It's surprising a lot of seasoned pros; many of whom were expecting a deeper correction over the Summer. But October has been known to dish out surprises on occasion.

True, but except for 2008 and 2009 October hasn't had more than one down year (in a row) since 1995.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

True, but except for 2008 and 2009 October hasn't had more than one down year (in a row) since 1995.

Honestly, I don't expect a big sell-off. Not without some kind of major geopolitical event occurring. The RUT is in rally mode, likely because the tax cuts narrative is good for stocks. Global money is probably finding its way into our stock market too.

Originally Posted by coolhand

Honestly, I don't expect a big sell-off. Not without some kind of major geopolitical event occurring. The RUT is in rally mode, likely because the tax cuts narrative is good for stocks. Global money is probably finding its way into our stock market too.

I, with much hoping, agree...and the EU continuing QE when ours is going into tightening could easily explain our bond inequity as well.

Summer and has come and gone and the market is sporting new highs and we are not even in the 6 month positive cycle.

S&P 500.png

There's nothing wrong with this chart if you're a bull. Fresh all-time and no overhead resistance.

DWCPF.png

Amazing how far this index has traveled since mid-August. And the like the S&P 500, no overhead resistance to deal with.

NYAD.png

When I tell you that cumulative breadth is very bullish, this is the chart I'm looking at. Not only is the signal hitting fresh all-time highs, but the 21 day EMA has not crossed the 39 day EMA in a long time. August was looking shaky for a bit, but now it's a distant memory.

The options are leaning bullish for Monday. NAAIM is bullish. Our TSP Talk survey is neutral. This market is not acting frothy at all. There are other sentiment surveys that more on the bearish side. That tells me we may not be anywhere near a top, though a pullback is always possible. What I mean by that is any pullback is likely to get bought.

I am sitting in cash the past few trading days, abandoning my TZA position in the face of a relentless drive higher in the small cap space. I'll be one of those dip buyers if we get one.

The market seems to be making a huge statement as the indexes start out the week with another big gain. Breadth is extremely bullish. The OEX P/C is bullish for Tuesday. It's really an amazing run to the upside. Good job to those who have been riding it.

We got more gains on Tuesday, but some indicators suggest weakness for Wednesday. That does not necessarily mean the market is ready to rollover at this point, so I'd not get too bearish just yet.

S&P 500.png

The S&P 500 has now traveled higher by more than 100 points since the mid-August bottom. Momentum is still rising, but RSI is overbought.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF paints a more dramatic picture. The past few weeks has definitely been a buy and holder's market. RSI is very overbought on the DWCPF.

Cumulative breadth obviously remains bullish. The options look bearish for Wednesday. Futures are down, but not a lot. I'd look lower for Wednesday, but how much dip buying will we see? Any weakness does have the potential to carryover beyond Wednesday, but it's predictability is not certain by any means. The risk remains to the upside; short-term weakness notwithstanding.

We had a mixed trading day today. I thought the market would trade lower, but it really didn't muster much downside at all. The options are now neutral heading into Thursday. Breadth dipped, but that has not meant much over the last few weeks. The bigger picture is one of serious bullish market behavior. NAAIM reports tomorrow.