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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6325

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I said I was looking higher for last week's action and the market soared.

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 closed out the week at a fresh all-time high on volume, but momentum is weakening and strength is largely flat.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF fared well last week and momentum here is still rising.

    The market has rallied significantly off the mid-August bottom and I would anticipate that it won't be long before we see some downside. The charts are bullish. Breadth is very bullish as is liquidity. NAAIM is still bullish, though not as much as they were. The OEX P/C is bullish for Monday. Most of my indicators look very bullish, though my intermediate term system remains negative, but it's been just one signal away from flipping positive for at least a week now. The fact that so much is looking so good should be reason to start getting defensive. I took a 25% position in TZA on Friday, but I am not comfortable with it given breadth and liquidity. I may put on a hedge just in case. A top may not be in, but I'm thinking it can't be far off. We'll see.

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  3. #6326

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's bullish set-up led to more gains for the market; especially the DWCPF as small caps soared once more.

    S&P 500.png

    Another all-time high for the S&P 500.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF tagged its all-time high today (double top?). Momentum is still rising.

    The action seems to suggest that this market could have more juice left, though it is still overbought and in need of a pullback. The problem for the bears is that breadth and liquidity remain darn bullish. This market is being driven higher.

    The options are looking neutral for Tuesday. I have the feeling that the bulls are not done yet.

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  5. #6327

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No charts this evening. The action was a little on the flat side. While I have been leaning toward the bearish side of late, I also knew that tops could take a bit of time to form. It looks like we may yet see an attempt at more upside on Wednesday as the options look bullish. Short-term bullish bias aside, I also still think the market is setting up for some selling. Bearish action in a bull market tends not to happen when we are ready for it. It likes to wear out the bears before making its move. I'm still sitting in a 25% TZA position, but looking for an opportunity to increase that exposure on strength, should we get it.


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  7. #6328

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market eked out some more gains on Wednesday, which the options market seemed to suggest would happen. Heading into Thursday however, the OEX P/C is now bearish, so that could bring some weakness. Still, it may not amount to much with some of my other key indicators still quite bullish.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 and DWCPF today.

    I did not notice it on Thursday, but my intermediate term system finally flipped positive. Breadth and liquidity are soaring and remain key obstacles for the bears (as usual).

    For tomorrow, I think the market tries to pull back, but as long as breadth and liquidity remain as bullish as they are, the market isn't likely to give the bears much to work with.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  9. #6329

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I said yesterday that I thought the market would try to pull back, but that it wasn't likely to amount to much as long as breadth and liquidity remained in bullish configurations.

    We got some weakness, but it wasn't all that much. Breadth and liquidity did weaken, but not a lot. It could be the early start of something, but I'd not get too bearish yet.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 pulled back some, though volume was on the lighter side. Momentum, which had been weakening for days, had a negative signal line cross today. The DWCPF shows a similar picture, though momentum has hardly turned.

    The OEX P/C went neutral for Friday, so the options are no help. NAAIM shows some bearish activity, which I have not seen in months, but it's not a lot of activity. Collectively, this is still a bullish group overall.

    For Friday, I am neutral. We are due more selling, but the set-up is hardly convincing for any serious downside weakness.

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  11. #6330

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, I had thought (earlier in the week) that a top might not be far off. But as the days played out, I could see that the bulls had other ideas about market direction.

    But the C fund (S&P 500) really didn't get much upside traction. The DWCPF posted gains of 10X the S&P 500 last week. That's bullish.

    And it's no wonder when breadth and liquidity are as bullish as they are.

    S&P 500.png

    As you can see, the S&P 500 posted marginal gains last week. Momentum has been weakening, but not so much price.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF posted gains of about 1% last week and sits at a fresh all-time high. Momentum has been on an upside tear, but RSI is bumping up against an overbought condition.

    NAAIM is still bullish, but showing modest signs of bearish activity. The options are bullish for Monday, so we're likely to see yet more upside. Breadth and liquidity are pouding the bears.

    I still have my somewhat modest position in TZA and I obviously pulled the trigger too fast on that one, but I can recover easily enough. For next week, I'm leaning bullish, but only as long as breadth and liquidity stay elevated. The market is extended, but it seems intent on getting more extended. We'll just have to let it play out.

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  13. #6331

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Hmmm,

    Besides the RSI being near over-bought levels, are the charts themselves showing the S&P and the DWCPF already just past peak and starting to roll over??
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #6332

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Hmmm,

    Besides the RSI being near over-bought levels, are the charts themselves showing the S&P and the DWCPF already just past peak and starting to roll over??
    Rolling over, or forming a bull flag? The DWCPF is not rolling over. It just closed at a fresh all-time high. Momentum is still bullish. Breadth and liquidity are bullish too.

    A correction can come at any time, but the indicators are not projecting it.

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  17. #6333

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The indicators were leaning decidedly bullish for Monday, but we got some weakness instead. It was due. I note that small caps were a bit bullish once more despite most other major indexes closing lower.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF closed flat, but the S&P 500 lost a bit more ground. It is still not a bearish picture other than the market remains extended to the upside. Breadth is hitting all-time highs and that remains a significant obstacle for the bears. This evening, the OEX P/C is leaning heavily bearish. That's smart money. We may get some downside follow through on Tuesday. I'm cautiously bearish, but not willing to add to my TZA position with breadth so bullish.

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  19. #6334

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking for weakness on Tuesday. The OEX P/C was leaning heavily bearish, but the market shrugged off the smart money and traded a bit higher. The close was on the weak side, but hey, breadth hit fresh all-time highs and we know how bullish this indicator is. There is little interest in trading this market down right now.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    For Wednesday, the OEX P/C flipped bullish, while the CBOE P/C is neutral. Breadth and liquidity are driving the market in favor of the bulls and until that relents there is not much reason to fight it. I am neutral to bullish for Wednesday.

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  21. #6335

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While the S&P 500 rallied to a fresh all-time high, small caps are on fire and have seen almost no pullback. Today's action in the Russell 2000 looked like a short squeeze as it seemed to come out of nowhere. The index was already overbought and then it launched higher by almost 2%.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    You can see how the DWCPF is benefiting from the rally in the Russell.

    For Thursday, nothing has changed. The options are neutral, but breadth and liquidity are very bullish. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  23. #6336

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Fresh highs again on Thursday. Breadth remains on a tear to the upside. The options are on the bearish side for Friday. NAAIM came in more bullish and the shift was large enough to be bearish in the very short term. We may see some selling over the next couple of days or so, but breadth may very well temper any downside. I don't see any serious downside risk as yet.


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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