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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6277

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking for more selling on Thursday and we did get some. That downside pressure was contained and hints at a possible bottom being near as the market appears to be starting to build an area of support.

    Attachment 42149

    Price on the S&P 500 gave back more gains on Thursday and is starting to spend a little bit of time below the 50 dma, which is leveling off. However price does remain above near the top of the cloud and that is providing some measure of support.

    Attachment 42148

    The DWCPF was up for most of the day, closing with a modest gain as momentum continues to try to rise off the bottom. The 50 dma is still above and that key average is falling now.

    The options are neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM remains steadfastly bullish. Breadth, which had been negative for a few days now, is neutral and slowly rising. My intermediate term system is negative, but appears to be trying to bottom.

    I do think a bottom is near or maybe we have already seen it. I'm looking to go long in the S&P 500 (SPXL) and maybe small caps (TNA), but I am not ready to pull the trigger yet. A hard shot lower may get me to take a limited position, however. Friday looks neutral to my eye.

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  3. #6278

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, all three TSP stocks funds finished with nice gains. Those gains were primarily derived by Tuesday's big rally.

    S&P 500.png

    Since Tuesday's upside pop, price on the S&P 500 has fallen back a bit; tracking sideways and under the 50 dma. Momentum is rising, but not with conviction.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF, which also popped to the upside on Tuesday, gave back some of those gains on Wednesday, but rallied from there to end the week with a sizable gain.

    Sentiment is somewhere in the middle, but NAAIM remains bullish overall. The options are neutral. Breadth flipped positive on Friday. My intermediate term system is moving toward a bullish stance, but isn't there yet.

    I said on Friday that I was looking for an entry back into stocks, but that I was not ready to pull the trigger. I was looking (hoping) for a shot lower, which would have been the temptation that I needed to get back into the market, but that didn't happen. We may have seen the bottom already. It's a tough call to jump back in, however. I am only modestly bullish given the mixed overall technical picture. Improving, yes, but not convincingly. We have not seen a higher high yet, so a move lower again is certainly on the table.

    I am modestly bullish as we head into Monday, but not ready to make any moves yet.

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  5. #6279

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Hello CH, What's your opinion on this forecast? Predicting a downtrend up to 2020. https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/stock-market

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  7. #6280

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    Hello CH, What's your opinion on this forecast? Predicting a downtrend up to 2020. https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/stock-market
    I noticed that the predictive numbers in the link were somewhat modest over time. Seems they are not looking for a huge sell-off; just a long term downtrend. It's going to be tough making money in TSP under those circumstances. But I take all predictions with a grain of salt.

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  9. #6281

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm now looking for weakness that has the potential to test the previous lows. Any significant selling pressure will trigger buy signals, so I anticipate getting long again (for me it will be SPXL) over the next day or three (need a window). If I have time, I'll jump into the S fund with TSP (I still work full-time).

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  11. #6282

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No charts this evening given the relatively flat close. There is no change to my last post. I'm still anticipating a move lower that I believe would offer a reasonable entry point to get long. The OEX P/C is neutral, but the CBOE is bearish for Tuesday. That's not enough by itself to bank on some selling on Tuesday, but the flat close today suggests to me that the chances have increased for weakness. In fact, futures are plunging as I write this.


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  13. #6283

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I bought the early decline in the premarket this morning as I said I would. I split my account (not TSP) between SPXL and TNA and picked up a nice gain of about 2%. I sold my position minutes before the close. Why? My gut. That may not be technical, but that's what I did when the market popped to the upside more than 2 weeks ago and that one was good for more than 4% with a hard decline just 3 days later and little upside in between. The current market is set up for more upside in some ways, but my level of trust is not what it once was. I am happy with jumps in and out; especially if I can do with profits.

    Let's look at where we are now.

    S&P 500.png

    While the S&P 500 is showing a sizeable white candlestick, most of it is below the previous day's close. Gains on the day were paltry, but if you bought the dip, you had a chance to bag some gains. There may be more, but that 50 dma is still above current price on this chart and there is still not a higher high achieved. I was not comfortable with the index just getting back to even either. I was hoping for a short-covering rally and we didn't get it.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF did about the same thing, but closed just below the neutral line. Not particularly impressive, was it?

    The options are looking neutral to me as we head toward Wednesday. Breadth is positive, but looks tentative and not far above the negative line. My intermediate term system is still negative and has been trying to improve.

    What bothers me most is what I stated above. I did not like the flat close. It may be bullish that the indexes retraced their losses, but volume has not been impressive. Where's the conviction in the turn back up? I really need to see what the market does over the next day or two. Let's see if that negative reversal has any legs.

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  15. #6284

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got the upside that I thought we'd get today, though I certainly had my reservations about that and was unwilling to play for it. The technical indicators improved too.

    S&P 500.png

    Price on the S&P got back over the 50 dma, which is bullish. Momentum is gathering upside strength strength.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF is looking better too, but the 50 dma is still a bit further up the ladder. Momentum is rising here too.

    The options are neutral. My intermediate term system wants to turn positive, but TRIN is holding it back. Breadth is on the rise and looking better (it's positive).

    More upside may be in store. Today's action certainly improved the bullish case, but there may still be another shot back down to shake off newly minted bulls before a more significant rally. I am keeping my powder dry for now as I look for another good entry point. I prefer odds that are decidedly in my favor.

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  17. #6285

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Momentum continued to carry the major averages higher on Wednesday as the upside reversal extended its reach.

    SPX.jpg

    We now have a gap below as price rallied and closed not far from the highs achieved a few weeks ago.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF sliced through its 50 dma, but it remains well below its July high.

    The indicators are now getting a bit stretched and more are flipping positive. Interestingly, my intermediate term system remains negative. The OEX P/C is bullish for Friday, as is the CBOE P/C. The market is probably going to probe higher, but selling pressure is likely not far behind. Now that things are looking bullish gain, it's time to look for a pullback. I may take a shot at TZA and SPXS on additional strength Friday. This would be a quick play if the early action is favorable for a short.

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  19. #6286

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    One week ago, I said that we may have seen the bottom even as the signals remained mixed. Last week's rally confirmed the bottom as the broader market marched smartly higher for most of the week.

    S&P 500.png

    Price on the S&P 500 is now flirting with resistance near the 2480 area. Momentum is rising, but is now getting a bit extended.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF has rallied significantly over the past 2 weeks, but remains well off its all-time high.

    NAAIM is showing caution, but remains bullish. The TSP Talk weekly sentiment is showing rising bullishness and is getting close to getting overly bullish, though I think it's still neutral. The options are leaning somewhat bearish for Tuesday.

    Cumulative breadth is very bullish and rising, but may be getting extended. My intermediate term system is still negative, but has been very close to a positive condition for the last several days. Friday's close saw TRIN close at a very low level, which is bearish for Tuesday.

    For next week, I am leaning bearish, but I am not looking for a deep decline. The market is due some weakness after several up days and we have some indicators that support that possible outcome. NAAIM remains bullish, but appears to be reining in their long positions; going to cash rather than flipping short.

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  21. #6287

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    My bearish leanings for this week appear to be spot on as Tuesday opened up the week with some heavy selling pressure.

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 probed below its 50 dma during intraday trading, but rallied back to close well above that key support line. Momentum has turned back down.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF also sold down and bounced, but price settled just under its 50 dma.

    The options are looking bearish heading into Wednesday, so the sellers may not be done just yet. Breadth has turned down, but remains positive. My intermediate term system remains negative, believe it or not. TRIN remains at a very low level and that supports the option's bearish lean.

    I may not be posting over the next 2 or 3 days as I am on the road enjoying some time off. I'll be in the St. Augustine area of Florida; a nice place to kick back every now and then.

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  23. #6288

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thank you man! 🖒 Enjoy Florida quick, doesn't look good for the weekend...

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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