Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

As expected, the market started out rather neutral for the week; with weakness eventually giving way to buying pressure that took the stock market back to neutral or modestly positive territory, depending on the index.

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The S&P 500 closed just slightly negative. Momentum continues to weaken, but notice how little price damage there is.

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The DWCPF posted a modest gain on the day.

Once again, not much has changed. The options are neutral heading into Tuesday. My sentiment remains neutral as well.

The bull took the market higher once more today. Is it really all that unexpected? Just because we are due some weakness, doesn't mean we'll get it. Especially with liquidity levels remaining at very high levels.

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There was some volume behind the moderate run higher too. RSI is not far from overbought, which is where it's been for a few days now.

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Same story for the DWCPF.

I got out of the market last Monday thinking that most of the upside was behind us. Well, that is potentially true, but becoming less true every time the S&P 500 and DWCPF hit a fresh high. For Wednesday, the OEX is neutral. Breadth and liquidity remain bullish. Any weakness from here in the short-term is likely going to be limited. It is very possible this market has a good ways to run yet, but I can't speculate to what extent since there is no resistance above. I started the week neutral and I'm going to remain that way for now.

It was another relatively ho-hum day today, but the S&P 500 did hit a fresh high. Small and mid cap stocks sent the DWCPF moderately lower.

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Volume has been elevated the past 2 trading days. Momentum is flattening out as is RSI. Still, price is holding firm.

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Price on the DWCPF tumbled moderately, but no technical damage was done. Momentum is starting to level out and RSI dipped.

Overall, nothing serious to report from a technical perspective. The OEX P/C is bearish for tomorrow. Breadth and liquidity remain bullish.

I remain neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

It was a rather odd trading day on Thursday. Stocks started out largely positive in the morning session, but got hit with a sell off in the afternoon. Technical damage was limited by a bounce that saw the major averages retrace a portion of their intra-day losses.

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We can see that the S&P 500 was down hard at one point in the afternoon and the retrace saw price form a long shadow on today's candlestick, which suggests a bottom. Volume was heavier than normal. Momentum continues to slide.

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The DWCPF took a bigger loss on Thursday than it did on Wednesday. Like the S&P 500, it closed well off its low of the day.

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The NASDAQ was thrown for a sizeable loss of 0.63% today, the what got my attention along with other traders was the nosedive in the transports. That is a good-sized red candlestick on heavy volume. I'm not sure what this might mean, but it could be an early omen of some kind.

Today's selling pressure was not expected by many, but the market weathered it like it generally has with hallmark resilience. While the transports make me wonder if trouble is ahead, NAAIM came in a bit more bullish and showing no inclination to fight this market. Breadth remains bullish, but has gone a bit sideways. The CBOE P/C is bullish for Thursday and the OEX P/C is neutral to modesty bullish. I don't think Thursday's weakness will see much downside follow through on Friday, though I am not complacent as this market is due for more than a token pullback. I am interested in seeing what happens to transports from here.

transports, fear of large oil price increases coming due to saudi cutting production and the continued dollar weakness. that's what I'm thinking.

I heard such talk in the media today. It certainly makes sense at face value. Question is; is the rest of the market going to follow? I'm seeing a select few traders calling for a short-term sell-off in the neighborhood of 5%. We're due, but tops are notoriously hard to predict. But that's why I'm looking sideways at the transports. I do have a position in TZA. Caught the weakness on Wednesday for almost 1% and sold it the same day. Took another position today. It's speculative, so we'll see how it goes. Shorts are risky in this market.

Originally Posted by Valkyrie

transports, fear of large oil price increases coming due to saudi cutting production and the continued dollar weakness. that's what I'm thinking.

The market continued to pullback as the new week has begun, though losses were pretty limited. Hardly a surprise.

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The S&P 500 closed slightly lower and spent a good portion of the day in the plus column. Momentum continued to weaken, but price remains not far from the top.

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The DWCPF is giving up more ground than it's large cap cousin, but that's to be expected. Price is still well above the rising 50 dma.

Transports gave back Friday's gains, so there may be a bear flag in play with fresh lows coming soon. For now, I am not taking it too seriously as this market is hardly a model of fundamental economic principles.

Breadth and liquidity remain bullish. The OEX P/C is bearish for Tuesday. More weakness looks to be on tap.

Yesterday, I said I was looking for more weakness given the bearish OEX P/C. We got some, but it didn't stick. Of course, the bulls did not exactly run to the races either.

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The S&P 500 posted a modest gain, but is that a bear flag forming? Maybe, but that would be a risky bet in this market.

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The DWCPF put up a moderate gain on Tuesday. Momentum has not turned up, however.

I did not realize it until today, but my intermediate term system had been under pressure the past day or so. It is and has been positive still, but it has been under attack. Despite the technical weakness, cumulative breadth on the NYSE is still hitting fresh all-time highs. We can't ignore that, which is what I have been saying for a long time now. Liquidity levels heavily favor the bulls. But weakness does occur, it just isn't overwhelming weakness. The OEX P/C is bearish again as we head into Wednesday. I'd not be surprised by a shot lower, but whether it sticks or not is another matter. Someone wants this market elevated and they are doing a good of job of making it happen.

Yesterday, I said that despite technical weakness, cumulative breadth on the NYSE was still hitting fresh all-time highs and that this was not something that can be dismissed out-of-hand. Liquidity levels have been in the bull's favor for a long time too. But I also noted that weakness does occur, it just hadn't been overwhelming weakness. I said the OEX P/C was bearish again as we headed into Wednesday and that I'd not be surprised by a shot lower, but whether it stuck or not was another matter.

We got the shot lower that I thought we might given the bearish options reading. And while the S&P 500 actually held up well (and closed positive), the DWCPF got whacked, but closed well off its lows.

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How bearish could today's market have been with price on the S&P 500 still poking around near its all-time high?

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The DWCPF tested its rising 50 dma and bounced to close well above it. Still, it isn't as bullish a picture as the S&P 500, but should be surprised since it's small and mid cap stocks, which tend to get hit the hardest in a turn lower?

Cumulative breadth turned down today, but not much. The OEX P/C is now neutral, but the CBOE P/C is bearish, which is bullish. The market is probably due a bounce on Thursday, but the selling pressure may not be over just yet; at least over the days ahead. NAAIM reports tomorrow. I suspect they'll remain largely bullish, but we'll see.

I thought we might get a bit of a bounce on Thursday, but for the most part we got more weakness. My intermediate term system is now a hair from going negative. Time to turn?

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Price on the S&P 500 has formed a triangle in the short-term. Those usually break in the direction of the trend, which is obviously up. Momentum remains negative, but this is not a bearish chart.

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The DWCPF is another story as price settled lower just above its rising 50 dma. Momentum is still falling. That 50 dma tends to be supportive, but could get violated before the market turns back up.

NAAIM came in bullish (surprise). Cumulative breadth is deteriorating, but still positive. Overall, this market may be looking for bottom. The S&P 500 looks poised to rally and maybe support holds on the DWCPF. The OEX P/C is a bit bullish. I would not short this market right now. While more weakness is a real possibility, the risk remains to the upside.

I may jump back into the S fund soon.

In my last weekly blog, I said that the market was showing mixed signals, but that the signals that count are bullish. Be that as it may, I was neutral for last week since I had no conviction on which way the market might go for the week. I noted, however, that the bulls continued to have the advantage despite short-term weakness or sideways action in the market. The week ended mixed for the TSP stock funds with the C and I closing higher by 0.23% and 0.87% respectively, but the S fund shed 0.57%.

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Price on the S&P 500 remains in that triangle area, which should eventually see an upside breakout at some point. However, price may track sideways out of the triangle, though that would not invalidate the likely direction of the break.

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The DWCPF bounced on Friday, which keeps price above the rising 50 dma. Momentum has not turned yet.

NAAIM remains bullish. Our TSP Talk survey came in less bullish, but is still neutral overall. The OEX P/C is still bullish as we head into Monday.

Breadth picked up a bit on Friday and liquidity remains bullish. Overall, not much has changed after last week and that keeps me neutral overall. I do expect another rally, but the market may want to retest recent lows first. That may happen this coming week, but Monday could see a poke higher first, given the bullish OEX P/C.