Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

I'm going to be tied up this afternoon and evening, so I'm posting early before some of indicators have settled.

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The market got smacked pretty good today. I was looking lower, but we got more weakness than I expected. And that weakness did some technical damage too. Price on the S&P 500 closed below its 50 dma for the first time since mid-May. It bottomed at that point, but I am not so sure we'll see a bottom this soon this time around, though a bounce is not out of the question.

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The DWCPF also closed below its 50 dma and trend line support. Momentum has turned down.

My intermediate term system may have flipped negative today, but not all of my signals have settled, so I won't know until later this evening. Breadth is very close to flipping negative. Liquidity remains positive, but took a hit.

Interestingly, NAAIM remained quite bullish today. They have been good longer-term predictors of market direction for a little while now. The fact that they remain bullish certainly suggests that this shot lower may be short-lived. But next week we have Weird Wolly Wednesday coming up and that could mean more volatility over the days ahead. It's one of the reasons I think a bottom may not be in despite the bullish NAAIM reading.

I am going to look over my data later this evening. If a bounce comes on Friday, I may head to the sidelines for at least a few days. But I won't know that until I review all of my signals. I also don't know how the OEX P/C is positioned yet either.

I'll follow up with a short read on my indicators later this evening.

As update to my previous post, my intermediate term system did indeed flip negative today. The OEX P/C is now neutral.

Tomorrow may see some chopping around. The bias may be higher given Thursday's sell-off, but I am skeptical that a bottom is in. I may head to the G fund tomorrow if we get a decent bounce, but I don't know yet. Otherwise, I may just sit tight again and ride it out. The risk is that this market could turn back up again and make another run to the upside now that the indicators are looking suspect. Also, NAAIM is bullish, so that suggests that while a bottom may not be in (remains to be seen) the pros at NAAIM are not positioned for any serious selling pressure. This is not a day-trader organization and they are willing to ride out any volatility with an eye on the intermediate to longer term.

Good call Coolhand. I had to make a move to the G today as I was all in I Fund, as it looked like it was struggling uphill, but by days end, it barely made it to where it left off the day before. Patience is a virtue.

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Price on the S&P 500 tagged declining trend line resistance on Monday and fell back. It could be another lower high. Support is not far below should the index reverse once more.

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The DWCPF gave back some of Friday's gains on momentum that continues to get more negative.

It's tough to get excited about this market right now. Monday's weak close does suggest we may see more selling pressure over the next day or two. A test of recent lows is very possible. Breadth does remain positive as does liquidity and they have been trumping most other indicators (as usual). Unfortunately, many other indicators are acting as a drag on price in spite of breadth and liquidity.

I am looking for more weakness over the next couple of days, but since the market is not all that far from its previous low, any additional weakness is not likely to be long lived. If market character is any indication, anyway.

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I was looking for weakness today and we got it. But we also got price resilience as price closed well above its low of the day. Take note that the 50 dma was tested and held. That may be the retest I was looking for, but I had hoped to see price drop further than it did.

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Price on the DWCPF closed for gain, but it spent some time in negative territory. I sure looks like a bottom may be in.

Having said that, tomorrow is Weird Wolly Wednesday, so there is likely to be some volatility that may include yet another retest. But I think it's time to be a buyer as the upside is looking like the more likely outcome once we get past Wednesday.

None of my indicators have changed. The OEX P/C is neutral for Wednesday.

There remains cross-currents in the market, but the bulls continue to be favored.

Yesterday, I said that WWW had a good chance to see some volatility and maybe even a retest of the previous lows, but that it would likely be a buying opportunity before the market turned back up.

I got that one only partially right. We didn't get the volatility or any weakness at all, but the market turned up as expected. And it did so at the open, never looking back. I was too late on the trigger as the time to buy was Tuesday.

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That string of lower highs got broken decisively today. That gap makes for a good downside target at some point, however. Maybe a retest of June high first? Volume was only so-so, but momentum turn positive...finally.

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The DWCPF hit a fresh, all-time intra-day high on Wednesday before closing back under that declining line of resistance. Momentum has yet to turn positive on this chart.

Cumulative breadth hit another all-time on Wednesday, and of course that means liquidity remains solidly bullish. The OEX P/C is bearish for Thursday, so maybe some give-back is on tap.

It's possible that the weakness I was anticipating on Wednesday shows up on Thursday, but I am fairly certain the bottom is already in. A new all-time high in the S&P 500 seems to be a likely scenario in the intermediate term. My intermediate term system has not turned positive yet, but I think the chances are high that it will before long.

Despite bearish OEX P/C yesterday, the market did not see much downside. I am not entirely surprised given that a bottom is in and a fresh all-time high in the S&P 500 may be in the cards. I'm thinking this higher bias could remain with us for a few more days, but a Summer swoon is likely lurking on the horizon somewhere.

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The S&P 500 tacked on some modest gains to Wednesday's upside pop. The June high is within range now. Momentum is still rising.

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The DWCPF eked out some gains too, but is having trouble with that line of resistance. Of course, early weakness didn't hold, and that's at least somewhat bullish.

The market is back on a bullish tack, so bears beware. Breadth and liquidity are looking very good. I know this isn't going to last, but for now I would not fight it.

No charts this evening. The market was fairly flat, though the DWCPF managed a small gain. My current view has not changed. The upside remains the path of least resistance, but the market is susceptible to a pullback. I went all "G" fund today; not because a pullback is necessarily imminent, but that I think the bulk of the upside move may be over.

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The S&P 500 eked out a gain to close at another all-time high on Tuesday. Momentum is still positive, but weakening.

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The DWCPF closed modestly lower, but price does remain above previous resistance.

The OEX P/C is flashing a sell today, but it's only a 1-day signal, so Wednesday has a good chance to bring weakness. While the charts look toppy, it is likely going to remain resilient even on a moderate pullback.

I'm cutting it a bit short tonight as I have a thunderstorm over my house and could lose power.

Thanks as always, looking for a nice big red candlestick to buy for a quick play.

Just a quick drive-by this evening as I have other pressing matters to get to.

Today's upside was surprising, but not too surprising. I was looking for some degree of weakness, even if it wasn't a ton, and we got practically none at all. Breadth and liquidity are formidable elements for the bears to overcome when they are positive and trending higher. However, the lack of weakness today increases the likelihood of it tomorrow. But it still may not amount to much. Things can obviously still turn, but tops can be very hard to predict.

NAAIM report tomorrow. They've been bullish and they've mostly been right in the longer-term context.