I'm going to be tied up this afternoon and evening, so I'm posting early before some of indicators have settled.
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The market got smacked pretty good today. I was looking lower, but we got more weakness than I expected. And that weakness did some technical damage too. Price on the S&P 500 closed below its 50 dma for the first time since mid-May. It bottomed at that point, but I am not so sure we'll see a bottom this soon this time around, though a bounce is not out of the question.
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The DWCPF also closed below its 50 dma and trend line support. Momentum has turned down.
My intermediate term system may have flipped negative today, but not all of my signals have settled, so I won't know until later this evening. Breadth is very close to flipping negative. Liquidity remains positive, but took a hit.
Interestingly, NAAIM remained quite bullish today. They have been good longer-term predictors of market direction for a little while now. The fact that they remain bullish certainly suggests that this shot lower may be short-lived. But next week we have Weird Wolly Wednesday coming up and that could mean more volatility over the days ahead. It's one of the reasons I think a bottom may not be in despite the bullish NAAIM reading.
I am going to look over my data later this evening. If a bounce comes on Friday, I may head to the sidelines for at least a few days. But I won't know that until I review all of my signals. I also don't know how the OEX P/C is positioned yet either.
I'll follow up with a short read on my indicators later this evening.
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