Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by JamesE

As always, much appreciated sir!

YW, James.

While I certainly do not have a crystal ball, I've learned a lot over the years, and if I can help anyone out there leverage what I have learned to their advantage, than I'll be pleased.

Your style and delivery of the charts and analysis keeps things simple and to the point. I really appreciate the "meat and potatoes" delivery while keeping the noise out.

I did miss your contributions when you went on hiatus a while back. For me, your work is a must read and a vital component in the decision making process for those of us who are actively involved in growing their retirement!

Best to you,
Jim

What Jim stated. Totally agree. Thank you sir.

Thank you for the thumbs up folks. I am glad you noticed that I keep things rather simple. I've got plenty of charts and have toyed around with them for some years now, but I've come to realize that more is not necessarily better. Other technical indicators that I do like include Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands. I just don't tend to use them very often.

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Price on the S&P 500 dipped a bit more on Thursday, but no technical damage yet. Momentum is still falling.

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The DWCPF managed to get back some of Wednesday's losses. Momentum is still falling, however. The 50 dma may get tested.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged on Thursday and that keeps it bullish from my point of view, though shorter term traders would view it as neutral. The options are decidedly bearish for Friday and that includes the dumb money being bullish (which is considered bearish). I have noticed for some time that the dumb money isn't always dumb, so we'll see what happens.

My intermediate term system is still positive. Interestingly, BPCOMPQ is rising (that's positive) and that is an intermediate term indicator. Breadth bounced, but remains in danger of flipping negative on any further weakness. Banks are seeing selling pressure over the past few days, but the BKX is well above support right now.

There are a lot of cross-currents in this market, which does concern me to some extent, though that's not necessarily bullish or bearish. It just means there could be some surprises down the road as the the indicators are giving mixed signals. NAAIM acts as somewhat of an anchor for me as those folks are bullish for a reason.

Thanks coolhand! Your analysis is always appreciated and a "must read" each and every evening.

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The S&P 500 tried to test its high from last week, but fell short of the attempt and closed near the neutral line. Volume was down. Momentum is leveling off.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF also tried to test its highs, but fell short. The index was up more than the S&P 500, however, and could still test its all-time intra-day high again. Momentum is still rising.

Breadth is on another short-term uptrend. There could be more upside coming this week, but the technical indicators are not exactly screaming rally. Still, when you have liquidity on your side, it usually doesn't matter.

S&P 500.png

Price on the S&P 500 took a dive on Tuesday and closed near support in the 2420 area. Momentum has turned down, of course.

DWCPF.png

The DWCPF also took a shot lower, but did not quite test its previous low. Still, it retraced the bulk of the past 3 days of gains.

The selling pressure may have seemed concerning, but I don't see much evidence that this is anything more than a short-term drop lower. Breadth and liquidity, while lower, are still very much positive. No significant support lines have been broken either. NAAIM was bullish to start the week. The options are neutral heading into Wednesday.

I think the market may probe lower tomorrow, but I don't think this bout of weakness is going to last. I am still expecting a more significant decline as I mentioned a few days ago, but I don't think this is the start of that decline. Let's see how tomorrow plays out. I'm looking for an "up" close tomorrow. TRINQ is at a very high level and that suggests a reversal the next day. How much of a reversal is open to debate if we get it.

Yesterday, I said that the selling pressure on Tuesday may have seemed concerning, but that I didn't see much evidence that it was anything more than a short-term drop lower. Breadth and liquidity were still very much positive and no significant support lines had been broken. NAAIM was bullish to start the week as well. I just did not see that sell-off lasting very long; especially after TRINQ closed at a very high ready.

I said I was looking for an "up" close and we sure got that in spades.

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The S&P 500 retraced all of its Tuesday losses. Momentum turned back up.

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The DWCPF retraced all of its losses too, and then some. It is now back at its all-time closing high.

Cumulative breadth hit an all-time once more today. Liquidity is at high levels. What's not to like if you're a bull?

The reversal was strong, which makes me think we're already near a top again; at least a short-term one. TRIN and TRINQ are now neutral. The options market won't settle for another hour or so at the time of this writing, so I am not sure how they are positioned for Thursday at the moment. In any event, I think the market gives something back on Thursday.

Your "I think"s this week are playing out accurately; now are you thinking "up" for a couple days, Plz? BTW, thx again much for sharing thoughts and charts!

As I said in yesterday's post, I thought the market would give back some of Wednesday's gains and it did just that. More than I expected, but down just the same.

SPX.jpg

Price actually tested the 50 dma on Thursday and bounced, closing for a significant loss, but also forming a long lower shadow. The successful 50 dma test and long shadow are bullish.

DWCPF.jpg

Similar story with the DWCPF. The 50 dma did not get tested, but this index isn't as important in that context as the S&P 500 is. But it was close to a test.

Volatility like this usually resolves in the direction of the longer-term trend and that is (of course) up. So I'm bullish by that measure.

Breadth and liquidity have not changed their bullish stance. Better, NAAIM got a bit more bullish today. Taken as a whole, this market appears poised for some upside, but is it simply another bounce, or something more? I know this, the bulls have much more going for them than the bears do. I'm looking higher from here.

Coolhand,

Although very late, it is very good to see you active again. I have been lying in the tall grass just milking the easy gains. Now I have to relearn to read the charts. Probably some choppy weather for the next few...