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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6181

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    S&P 500.png

    Just one chart tonight. This one matters most as it's the most visible to the masses. What we see is price now testing that line of resistance. It would be easy to look for a reversal here, but this also looks like it could be a bear trap. With breadth and liquidity solidly positive, the chances of a break to the upside is very real. But weakness may come first to suck in more bears (head fake). This could get interesting.

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  3. #6182

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Let it continue to sink until the first when our IFT's reset...
    MICHAEL KELLY ~ EST RETIREMENT OCT 2025

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  5. #6183

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mikekellyonline View Post
    Let it continue to sink until the first when our IFT's reset...
    I still have my IFTs, but I'm also already completely invested with the exception of some recent contributions to the G fund.

    A sizeable pullback in the short-term, while certainly not out of the question, could be touch with the S&P 500 pressing up against resistance again. I think it's just a matter of time before it shoots well past that barrier.


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  7. #6184

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    S&P 500.png

    It isn't decisive, but it's still a fresh high as price managed to close just above that area of resistance today. If you're a bear, you might be telling yourself that volume has fallen off a bit as price as edged higher and that may seem to indicate that a turn is near, but I see it as a higher risk outcome with breadth and liquidity solidly bullish. We have not seen anything resembling a long-term top yet and the market is hardly acting like a bear.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. They've been steadfastly bullish for some time now.

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  9. #6185

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Okay, today's pop to the upside on the S&P 500 puts the bears on notice. There could be much more where that came from now that price has decisively cleared previous resistance. That means there is no resistance overhead until another plateau is formed.

    S&P 500.png

    Volume was a bit higher on today's move. Momentum is still stretching out to the upside.

    DWCPF.png

    I've been saying that the DWCPF will almost certainly follow the S&P 500 if the large caps hit fresh highs. That's been true, but the not to the extent I'd like. Small caps are not leading the market, which is not what we want to see, but it's possible they play catch-up at some point. Price tested some minor resistance today and could not close above it. I suspect it will test it again very soon.

    NAAIM came in yet more bullish today. And this time, what few bears there were last week disappeared. That's bullish, especially now that the S&P 500 is sitting at a fresh all-time high. The OEX P/C is heavily bullish for Friday. Breadth and liquidity obviously remain bullish.

    I am looking for more strength tomorrow, and it may very well carry over into next week too.

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  11. #6186

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Some of you on the message board are aware that I have a co-worker who reached out to Birchtree a couple of years ago to check on him. He said he was fine at that time. My friend talked to him again today and he says he is still fine and bullish (there's a surprise ). He also said he was on the wrong side of oil trade, but holding on. He was told about the fact that many miss him and ask about him. My friend requested that he stop by the board sometime and he said he would, but we'll have to see whether he does or not. It may or may not be soon.

    I just wanted to pass this along as I know some of you would appreciate knowing he's still lurking out there.

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  13. #6187

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    That's cool Coolhand, I was worried about his sudden silence.



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  15. #6188

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Not much changed today.

    SPX.jpg

    After running higher for several days, the S&P 500 pulled back modestly to the start the new week. No surprise here.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF stuck to its recent playbook and led the S&P 500 to the downside. The 50 dma may get tested from here.

    This modest to moderate pullback is likely setting up the next move higher. The OEX P/C is neutral now and that suggests we are headed for some choppy action on Tuesday.

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  17. #6189

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Wonder if BT has made it to Cashiers, NC for the retirement home?

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  19. #6190

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Just moved from 100% I to C yesterday. Thinking the dollar might gain some strength. Playing the short term and looking into the rest of 2017. Most forecasters predicted between 2300 to 2400 on the S&P by the end of 2017. We are at 2412. Wonder if the political rally have gave us all our year earnings already and the rest of the year will be sideways to maybe a bit down action. Any thoughts?

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  21. #6191

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Robo5555 View Post
    Just moved from 100% I to C yesterday. Thinking the dollar might gain some strength. Playing the short term and looking into the rest of 2017. Most forecasters predicted between 2300 to 2400 on the S&P by the end of 2017. We are at 2412. Wonder if the political rally have gave us all our year earnings already and the rest of the year will be sideways to maybe a bit down action. Any thoughts?
    The outcome likely depends on how things play out on the political battlefield. But this is not the venue for me to get any more descriptive than that.

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  23. #6192

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market spent the bulk of Wednesday's trading session in the red, but closed near the flat line. I said it would probably be choppy today and I think it largely was.

    SPX.jpg

    The S&P 500 retraced early losses to stay not far under its all-time high. Volume was elevated and momentum is weakening.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF got hit much harder early in the trading session, falling well under its 50 dma before mounting a reversal that took it to a modestly positive close. That long tail on today's candlestick is highly suggestive of a bottom (higher low).

    BKX.jpg

    Banks remain weak and that's troubling. Price plunged today and tested that support area before recovering some its losses. The 50 dma is edging closer to that support area too, and it has served as resistance for some time now.

    The beat continues. I remain bullish, but not complacent. We have gotten enough weakness this week to possibly fulfill the TSP Talk sentiment sell that was triggered for this week. The reversal today suggests the worst may be over for now and as far as the S&P 500 is concerned, the worst was hardly worth writing home about. Now, if the DWCPF can clear it's last peak at a key resistance area, we may get some upside traction.


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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