Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

I was leaning bearish for Wednesday and the market gave us weakness, though once again it was the DWCPF that took the bulk of the selling pressure, which isn't unusual. The Fed left rates unchanged today and Apple fell to profit taking after posting disappointing iPhone sales.

DWCPF.png

The S&P 500 and EFA both dipped, but not much. The DWCPF came close to filling that lower gap. That may be all we get for now, but its possible there could be some bleed over weakness on Thursday morning. The S&P 500 still has its gaps unfilled. It could be weeks before those get filled. Maybe.

BKX.png

The Bank Index posted a moderate gain and is now getting close to testing its falling 50 dma.

After leaning hard toward weakness on Wednesday, the options smart money went neutral heading into Thursday. There will be more sentiment surveys tomorrow. No real change to my other indicators; they remain intermediate term bullish.

We got bleed over weakness Thursday morning; largely confined to the DWCPF once more. That just means that index will likely power back up faster than the others when it's ready.

More importantly, NAAIM came in neutral, but what bears (short positions) they did have last week are now at zero. That's bullish beyond a day or three in my opinion.

Another choppy, up/down/up kinda day. Crude continued its slide. The Healthcare vote made it through the house, which is no minor feat. The Senate will be even more challenging.

DWCPF.png

The S&P 500 went nowhere on Thursday, while the DWCPF ratcheted a bit lower. It looks like price largely tested and bounced off of the 61.8% Fib level (tested the 50 dma too) and closed above the 50% level. That, and the long tail on that candlestick suggest a bottom could be in. I wasn't looking for this much weakness this week, but it was pretty much contained to the DWCPF.

EFA.png

I wonder how many folks bailed on the I fund over the past week or two? Yeah, I'm not in it myself, but I've never denied how bullish the chart is.

I mentioned earlier today in the previous post that NAAIM looked bullish to my eye beyond the next few days. They are not bearish at all. And they've been positioned correctly for months.

On the bearish side, cumulative breadth, while still positive, is not far from flipping negative. That may be bullish. Liquidity is on the decline too, but is still very much in expansion. I remain long the S fund.

The options are bullish for Friday. That's increases the odds that at least a short-term bottom is in.

Originally Posted by coolhand

I wonder how many folks bailed on the I fund over the past week or two? Yeah, I'm not in it myself, but I've never denied how bullish the chart is

The "I" fund has stayed a little stronger than I thought. There is still that large gap from the first French election last month and the "I" fund in May generally doesn't do well so that's why I went 50/50 "CS" last Thursday. With the French elections this Sunday the market for Monday will be very interesting.

I wonder how many folks bailed on the I fund over the past week or two

I bailed because I was off the grid and didn't want to worry about the market while I was fishing in Florida. I have gone flat the market for many years while I'm on vacation, this year it didn't work out very well, but someone on this forum stated a long time ago to have a plan and execute the plan. Isn't it strange how much more it sucks to miss out on a large pop than it is to actually lose money?

Originally Posted by guppie

Isn't it strange how much more it sucks to miss out on a large pop than it is to actually lose money?

I can't agree with that. I'm only now making up for my 2008 loss. Remember it takes a 100% gain to recover from a 50% loss.

Originally Posted by guppie

I wonder how many folks bailed on the I fund over the past week or two

I bailed because I was off the grid and didn't want to worry about the market while I was fishing in Florida. I have gone flat the market for many years while I'm on vacation, this year it didn't work out very well, but someone on this forum stated a long time ago to have a plan and execute the plan. Isn't it strange how much more it sucks to miss out on a large pop than it is to actually lose money?

My question was me thinking out loud, so-to-speak. I was already 100% S fund and did not want to use an IFT to reshuffle the deck even though it has cost me to this point. I've have not owned any I fund in I don't know how long. And it's soaring again today.

Honestly, it is starting to look a bit parabolic and that could be bearish, but it's still a bullish chart.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

The "I" fund has stayed a little stronger than I thought. There is still that large gap from the first French election last month and the "I" fund in May generally doesn't do well so that's why I went 50/50 "CS" last Thursday. With the French elections this Sunday the market for Monday will be very interesting.

Drudge has a link saying that Macron has a 24 point lead. Our mainstream media must be involved in their polling.

The point is that if Macron gets smacked, the market will indeed be interesting. Come to think of it, you're right, it will be interesting either way.

I made my move on 4/24 from CSI to 100% I. Do not regret it but you are right about the French election results. Let's see what happens Monday.

Let's see what happens now that Macron won.