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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8425

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Higher prices (overall) are likely over the next few days
    I like the way you're thinking
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  3. #8426

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising another 6.5 pts (or so), which makes it even more bullish than it was last week. There are no bears in the poll. Of course, the bulls remain long and leveraged. No change in the weekly forecast. I expect more upside (overall) over the next few days on this reading.

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  5. #8427

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This week's NAAIM reading ticked higher by less than 2 pts, which keeps the reading very bullish. Last week, there were no shorts in the numbers, but there are some managers that have taken a 50% short position (not leveraged) this week. There can't be very many of them as the mean average is fairly high. Still, those managers who have opened short positions may be thinking it's time to have exposure to the possibility of a reversal down the road.

    Given the collective long side leveraged exposure they continue to have, I am anticipating more upside for now, but be wary of this market. Things could change quickly.

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  7. #8428

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This week's NAAIM mean average fell almost 21 pts. The reading was quite bullish last week and this week's reading I would say is moderately bullish. The bears have gone from 50% short (no leverage) last week to fully short and leveraged this week. So, we have a shift that while still bullish overall, shows some measure of concern on downside possibilities. It's tough to get excited about the downside though when the S&P 500 is hitting fresh all-time highs. I would say that this market may very well continue to probe higher. Things can obviously still change, but until they do the nod goes to the bulls.

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  9. #8429

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This week's NAAIM mean average rose more than 14 pts, which takes it from moderately bullish last week to solidly bullish this week. The bears remain fully short and leveraged, but there are fewer of them. The bulls remain fully long and leveraged. So, it looks like more upside may be in the cards over the days ahead.

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  11. #8430

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average rising another 4pt, which keeps it solidly bullish. The bears have taken off their leveraged shorts and are now just 50% short with no leverage. the bulls remain long and leveraged. So, there isn't many bears left in this poll, though they may not be true bears, just smart traders spreading out their risk. As crazy to the upside as this market has been overall, there is no telling when a top of some meaning may occur. Given that NAAIM is at their best in a bull market, I would take my cues from them when determining my own risk tolerance.

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  13. #8431

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This week's NAAIM mean average moved up once again, this time by almost 11 pts. The mean average is now sitting at 104.75, which is quite high and I can see by the numbers that there appears to be no short positions at all. I think there may be some small cash positions, but other than that these money managers are all in on the long and leveraged side of this market. This will make sentiment traders nervous; assuming other sentiment measures are bullish as well (I don't follow them). Yes, this is starting to feel a bit like the 90s irrational exuberance rally, but this isn't the 90s, but it is an election year and that may key to a continuation of upside momentum over time even as we will almost certainly have some dips along the way.

    But, as I have said previously, things could change quickly too. It's impossible to know how it all plays out, but I'm thinking this market still has some legs.

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  15. #8432

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I agree coolhand. room to go. but, i'm thinking it also looking like a melt up situation; which means it could reverse quickly. keep the powder dry.

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  17. #8433

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM mean average reading dipped about 11.5 pts, which puts it back to where it was 2 weeks ago. The reading remains quite bullish, but we do have some fully short and leveraged bears. Their numbers are small, which is why the reading remains very bullish. But understand that the bearish positions may be starter positions that build as the market continues to climb. I am not saying it will play out that way, but it might. We can definitely see that this smart money is very cautious on the short side, but they also know quite well that serious money can be made on the short side or at least will control losses if one is overinvested on the long side should things turn South. I am not projecting bullishness or bearishness, I am simply looking past a weekly reading and where we may or may not be headed. Until market character changes I continue to look higher and NAAIM continues to do that as well.


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  19. #8434

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Until market character changes I continue to look higher and NAAIM continues to do that as well.
    Good call, I stepped aside today but agree.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  21. #8435

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    this market just seems to keep on climbing with no rest. WOW!

    BTW: Thank you coolhand for the NAAIM info and commentary. much appreciated!

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