Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Good comments by Louis Navallier. Courtesy of PJ French (frenchee)

http://tinyurl.com/65y7wa

Originally Posted by coolhand

Good comments by Louis Navallier. Courtesy of PJ French (frenchee)

http://tinyurl.com/65y7wa

Coolhand, as always awesome, very informative. Thank you!! The system won't let me give any more reputation right now but you are making some great and informative posts.

Thanks. Occasionally I get those gut feelings that tell me when the market is going to move in one direction or another. Right now I'm smelling a rally. It's still a bear market, but if "da boyz" want to engineer a big move higher they've got a great set-up for it. High pessimism, high premiums, "perceived" pre-fed rally, folks wanting out of the market to end their pain, bears putting on shorts for another expected one-day wonder rally reversal. And "da boyz" are sitting on a lot of cash. They can dish out some punishment right now and make a killing.

I really like this set-up.

Originally Posted by coolhand

Thanks. Occasionally I get those gut feelings that tell me when the market is going to move in one direction or another. Right now I'm smelling a rally. It's still a bear market, but if "da boyz" want to engineer a big move higher they've got a great set-up for it. High pessimism, high premiums, "perceived" pre-fed rally, folks wanting out of the market to end their pain, bears putting on shorts for another expected one-day wonder rally reversal. And "da boyz" are sitting on a lot of cash. They can dish out some punishment right now and make a killing.

I really like this set-up.

Coolhand, The big question is how long will this rally last and can we get back to G before the bottom falls out again.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Coolhand, The big question is how long will this rally last and can we get back to G before the bottom falls out again.

You've got to monitor it very closely. I have a 100% position in the C fund, which I took when SPX was at 1106. I have a lot of ground to make up. But, greed is always looking for a way to exploit those leaning the wrong way. A good bear market rally can go further than many might think. Psychology and greed are market tools.

In TSP I cannot easily trade a one day rally with the volatility, so I wait till I see some follow-through. If we get that today it could be the sign we're looking for. So far we got the set-up for one.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but last time I checked Ebay was out.

Originally Posted by coolhand

Wish I had a crystal ball, but last time I checked Ebay was out.

Got mine at half.com. Every day it say the market will either go up or go down. It's amazing, it's always right.

So far, so good. The market is doing it's typical "waiting for the fed" dance.

There's a lot of liquidity coming into the market now and we could finally turn. I suspect this afternoons trading, post fed, will tell the story.

Originally Posted by coolhand

You've got to monitor it very closely. I have a 100% position in the C fund, which I took when SPX was at 1106. I have a lot of ground to make up. But, greed is always looking for a way to exploit those leaning the wrong way. A good bear market rally can go further than many might think. Psychology and greed are market tools. I would agree under normal circumstances. Analyzing the charts would usually give you an indication which way the market was moving. But this market is not normal. This market will look strong or weak all day until around 4:00pm and then WHAM!! Surprise, surprise, surprise!!! Not that a lot of us agreed with the bailout but everyone was saying that the market would rally once it was passed. The market did just the opposite. Panic spread faster than the flu in a nursing home.

In TSP I cannot easily trade a one day rally with the volatility, so I wait till I see some follow-through. If we get that today it could be the sign we're looking for. So far we got the set-up for one.

Wish I had a crystal ball, but last time I checked Ebay was out.

A crystal ball wouldn't hurt. Darn! Ebay! You cannot trust it when you need it the most. Right now the C fund is struggling and the S is in the green. I am hoping to see some more profit taking for my TSP. I know that I will not make up the 21% YTD before jumping to G. But it would be nice getting into the mid teens. GOOD LUCK everyone.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

A crystal ball wouldn't hurt. Darn! Ebay! You cannot trust it when you need it the most. Right now the C fund is struggling and the S is in the green. I am hoping to see some more profit taking for my TSP. I know that I will not make up the 21% YTD before jumping to G. But it would be nice getting into the mid teens. GOOD LUCK everyone.

A mixed close makes for more uncertainty. I did not make a transfer as I wanted the market to show me some follow-through first, otherwise I could be selling into a decline. We got some in the S fund, but C closed down and I fund was flat. Although it was a bearish close, the good news is that we held most of yesterday's big advance. The bears may try to continue to move lower tomorrow morning, but "the hook" is still in play.

We are just about into November when our trade restrictions reset. I prefer being in stox if possible to start the month as it gives us an extra trade.

However, as luck would have it the election is next week, which I suspect could produce more fireworks. It's just not going to get any easier.

Coolhand, I posted this on my thread but I would be interested in your opinion. KD paints a grim picture of the foriegn banks.



Thanks, JB45

I won't be able to look at this until much later today, but foreign banks in general are in trouble. That much I know. Collectively, they are structured different than our own banking system and economic policies vary from country to country.