Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by WorkFE

Coolhand It's all timing to keep the gains of this small rally.

Good Luck

Small rally? I think the S&P has already gained about 14% since the bottom and if this is only the beginning of an Intermediate Term rally, we could conceivably go much higher.

But we'll let the signals tell us how high. So far I've almost broke even for the year (down .56%).

If I'm (we're) lucky, maybe we could squeeze another 20%? Just a guess on my part, but hey, it sounds good. :toung:

I do expect this to move higher with some down days thrown in to shake the nervous investor. Consider how the market has been for the past 12 months I suppose "small rally" was a poor choice of words.

On 28 Jan I was riding high on top of the leader board at +5.46. In 5 weeks I was sitting at -12.17 and looking up at the lilly pad with some very powerful bino's.

I am very happy to be sitting at just under -6%. If this thing runs till the end of the week I will probably be even. Not something I thought was possible 2 weeks ago. I owe it to some very knowledgable people on this MB including you.

Thanks everyone, my wife let me move in from the shed. If I'm even by friday I'm allowed to have ice cream

In terms of just how big a bounce we can expect, history has shown we can expect anything from 52% and up given the present bear market is within the worst in history category. In the months ahead, the fear of being in will be replaced by the fear of being out.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

In terms of just how big a bounce we can expect, history has shown we can expect anything from 52% and up given the present bear market is within the worst in history category. In the months ahead, the fear of being in will be replaced by the fear of being out.

Yes. I didn't want to throw too big a number out there though. Just trying to keep it conservative.

The bottoming is a process, as you know, and I'm pretty sure we'll test the lows and maybe exceed them at some point down the road, but for now we relish whatever gains we can given our limited options under bear market conditions.

That is a big number when not used in conjuction with the word "recovery" which we are far from.
In this climate anything is possible including 52% in the other direction.

On a good note. The weather in KY today was 70 so I came home and worked in the yard. I planted some apache blackberries and a blueberry bush.

Originally Posted by WorkFE

That is a big number when not used in conjuction with the word "recovery" which we are far from.
In this climate anything is possible including 52% in the other direction.

On a good note. The weather in KY today was 70 so I came home and worked in the yard. I planted some apache blackberries and a blueberry bush.

Apache, Jump on it. Jump on it, Jump on it !

Thinking about buying a car sometime soon. Consider this...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ore-price.html

Fed Delivers a Stinger
Last Update: 19-Mar-09 08:56 ET

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralConte...9085723PageOne

Tuesday's Page One article was entitled "What's Next?" In light of the FOMC announcement yesterday, it would be a germane title once again. Indeed, what is next from the Fed?

The bold move taken by the FOMC to step up purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities and agency debt, and the plan to purchase up to $300 billion of long-term Treasuries in the next six months, was greeted with a sense of enthusiasm by the market.

The reaction was understandable. The Fed's initiatives were a surprise to most participants and they had a "we mean business" feel to them.

The Treasury purchase plan led to a huge rally in the Treasury market, with the yield on the 10-yr note falling as much as 50 basis points. The Fed is taking aim in particular at driving down market rates to help spur demand for mortgage financing for both purchase loans and refinancing.

Lower rates will be a consequence of the Fed's actions. It is the potential unintended consequences, though, that create some concern when contemplating the longer-term outlook.

The Fed runs a heightened risk of inflating the Treasury market bubble and stoking inflation itself. What's more is that the Fed has made its job of managing monetary policy that much more difficult when economic evidence suggests we are emerging from the financial crisis and the recession.

There is an adage that you shouldn't fight the Fed. Up until now, the stock market has been doing just that -- fighting the Fed and winning in most instances.

We don't know if what the Fed announced yesterday is the knockout punch. It is certainly a stinger, but if it isn't the difference maker, we can't help but wonder with some concern, what's next?

In terms of the stock market, what's next is the fight to clear a key technical hurdle at its 50-day simple moving average, which we alluded to yesterday. Notably, the post-FOMC rally fizzled out at that level (~800), yet the market still managed to end Wednesday with a nice gain.

Today the enthusiasm has been tempered by a weak earnings report from FedEx (FDX), which offset a decent report from Oracle (ORCL), inflation concerns that are manifesting themselves in rising gold and oil prices, and an initial claims report that can still only be described as weak.

Weekly initial claims dipped 12,000 to 646,000, which was better than the consensus estimate of 655,000. The four-week moving average rose by 3,750 to 654,750. Continuing claims hit another record high, jumping to 5.473 million from 5.288 million.

The relatively good news for initial claims is that the trend isn't worsening to a new meaningful degree. It is holding pretty steady around the 650K mark. Still, that condition, and the continued increase in continuing claims, makes it clear that the labor market is weak and that finding a new job in a short amount of time is very challenging.

As of this posting, the market is indicated to open the session about 0.4% higher.

My personal opinon is that this market continues higher, even with occasional pullbacks. Traders have been well trained to short this market for some time and have been convinced (rightly or wrongly) that we're headed for disaster. It's not just the shorts adding to this up leg, it's the folks bailing along the way too, convinced this is just a very short move. As they realize they are now on the wrong side of the market they'll feel compelled to get back in (albeit at higher prices), thus adding to the uptrend.

Breadth and Volume have supported this move too.

Yes, it will probably come back down, but it may be much futher out than many think.

Still 50/50 CS with the seven sentinels still solidly in buy territory.

Thanks Coolhand, as always, insightful.

I am looking for some selling today, we're due. Good chance we rally again tomorrow though. We'll see.