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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6397

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    They sure aren't making it easy for bulls or bears. Significant weakness to start the trading session, but it may turn back up before the day is over. It seems to be trying anyway. NAAIM has still not reported.

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  3. #6398

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, this market certainly seems weaker than I anticipated, though the S&P 500 has not exactly rolled over yet.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF is looking more on the bearish side. Will the 50 dma hold? A fair portion of losses were retraced on Thursday, but I'd not bet that we won't probe lower.

    The options are neutral heading into Friday. NAAIM came in a bit more bearish (very small shift), but what was interesting was that the short positions were taken off. The bears among them do not trust the downside at this point and as a group they are only moderately bullish. Breadth technically went negative, but it's tracking sideways.

    Today's reversal may mean a bottom is in, but I am not overly confident of such. I am however, still leaning bullish for the time being. The RUT has to bottom and turn back up, which it has yet to do. That would likely signal that a swing to the upside may begin.

    I am certainly willing to shift my sentiment from here, but that will depend on technical indicators, which remain somewhat mixed.

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  5. #6399

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week started out looking more bullish than bearish, but as the market played out it was the sellers that had the upper hand. But that downside pressure did not do that much technical damage. There may be more downside to come as we approach Thanksgiving, though we are also due a moderate rally.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is negative. Breadth is negative. The OEX P/C is bullish for Monday. NAAIM is neutral to bullish. TSP Talk is bulled up. Sentiment looks a bit bearish to my eye, though not enough to look for a serious decline. I'm looking higher for Monday, though it may not last if we get some upside pressure. If we are setting up for a Santa rally next month, there may very well be a bigger decline in the cards. But I am still not looking for anything overly ugly.


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  7. #6400

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Not much changed on Monday. I was looking for more buying pressure then we got. For Tuesday, the options are neutral. Breadth is still negative and weakening. I am neutral, but suspect that we'll see some downside pressure before we get to Thanksgiving.

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  9. #6401

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So...as usual, buy in for the holidays, see some weakness, sell losing money..never get back in. Gotcha...maybe this time I'll just let it ride...that would have made me a millionaire by now if I had done that in 2008. :-)

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  11. #6402

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by kb9nvh View Post
    So...as usual, buy in for the holidays, see some weakness, sell losing money..never get back in. Gotcha...maybe this time I'll just let it ride...that would have made me a millionaire by now if I had done that in 2008. :-)
    I've been holding TNA for the last 3 weeks or so and I'm down, but I'm not selling. My commentary is general in nature. Many folks have their own perspective about how they want to use information that others provide. I use several professional sources myself and they don't always agree. But some are short term and other longer term. As investors/traders we have to decide what kind of investing/trading we are comfortable with. Lately, the bulls have not been getting much going, but the S&P 500 chart does not look the same as the DWCPF. I will also say that many pros that I follow are getting frustrated on both side of the trade the past few weeks. It's been a difficult market for many, but it is not falling apart to this point.

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  13. #6403

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After a somewhat tepid upside move on Monday, Tuesday saw the sellers return, though once again the downside remained limited.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts are showing short term weakness right now, with momentum sliding in negative territory. Breadth remains negative. I note that TRIN closed at a somewhat high level today, so that may indicate another reversal on Wednesday. The options are neutral. Seasonality is on the bearish side heading into Thanksgiving too.

    So what is causing this uninspiring trading of late? My guess is that it is rooted in geopolitics (think Saudi purge, NK, etc.), but also in the tax reform debate going on in Congress. This is all creating an uncertain environment, which is something that stock markets do not like. I remain longer term bullish beyond the current malaise.

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  15. #6404

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Wednesday's action did some technical damage; especially on the DWCPF chart as price closed under the rising 50 dma. Momentum remains to the downside. It appears that pre-Thanksgiving weakness started early this year. The holiday is now only a few trading days away, which means seasonality is going to become more of an issue for the bears (it's bullish). That doesn't guarantee a rally, but I'd not be shorting the market after next week without good reason.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The options are leaning bullish for Thursday. Many other indicators are negative. NAAIM reports in the morning. They have been leaning bullish all along, but not as much as past months. Futures are bullish this evening, so maybe a bounce before a retest of the lows by Friday?

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  17. #6405

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The other shoe drops!! I just need to turn off the news for a while, come back in a year and enjoy the gains I guess!!


    Quote Originally Posted by kb9nvh View Post
    So...as usual, buy in for the holidays, see some weakness, sell losing money..never get back in. Gotcha...maybe this time I'll just let it ride...that would have made me a millionaire by now if I had done that in 2008. :-)

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  19. #6406

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by kb9nvh View Post
    So...as usual, buy in for the holidays, see some weakness, sell losing money..never get back in. Gotcha...maybe this time I'll just let it ride...that would have made me a millionaire by now if I had done that in 2008. :-)
    Sure, if you bought in at the end of 2008 or better yet March of 2009, but we didn't know it at the time. On the other hand if you bought & held like I did in the Spring of 2000 you would not have made your money back before losing it again in 2008. I grant you that Buy & Hold has done better than most of us here during the years since 2008, but those were good years and another crash could change that quickly.
    Allocations as of COB Oct 31 : 100% S. | Retirement Date: Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%, 2012 2.75%,5Yr Avg 3.57%

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  21. #6407

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bullish options at the close on Wednesday did indeed work out for Thursday as the broader market rallied hard for a change.

    SPX.jpg
    DWCPF.jpg

    The rally helped turn some indicators back up on Thursday. Breadth improved significantly, though it's still negative. Momentum is trying to turn back up. NAAIM came in with some bears putting on shorts, but they are not bearish taken as a whole. The modestly bearish slide over the past few weeks in this survey could set up a significant rally. It would certainly coincide with seasonality in a few more days.

    So, despite the rally we could still see a retest of the lows and perhaps as soon as Friday, though I'd give that a bit more room and stretch it to Monday. That's my guess as the powers that be may be in the process of setting table for the next big move to the upside as we head toward the holiday period. As much as I'd like to see the market take off from here, I doubt I'll be accommodated.

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  23. #6408

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was anticipating a possible reversal on Friday after Thursday's big upside move. The S&P 500 did pullback, but not a whole lot. The DWCPF tacked on moderate gains. That's bullish as small caps may be ready or not far from ready to lead the way to the upside again.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 chart still looks bullish by almost any measure. The DWCPF rallied after closing under its rising 50 dma for 1 day. It is now not far from its all-time closing high.

    TSP Talk sentiment didn't get any more bearish at the end of last week, but it did get a bit more bullish. It's at a level that's troublesome, but I'm not overly concerned about it. NAAIM is neutral. The options are neutral for Monday. Breadth flipped positive again on Friday. Is liquidity ready to ramp up again? It's on the rise. There remains a chance for a retest of the lows, but with positive seasonality almost on top of us we might not get it. Small caps have woken up and that's bullish. Some of the signals in my intermediate term system may have bottomed (bullish if true). Overall, I'm neutral for next week, but can see this market go either way. Monday may tell us a lot.


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