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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6361

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    While some of the main sentiment surveys I follow are largely on the bullish side, many others show significant bearishness. NAAIM has been bullish for a long time now and they've not been wrong when taken in the long-term context. Breadth and liquidity will continue to trample the bears as long as they remain in their current configurations. We can't know the future with certainty, but it sure looks bullish to my eye. If anything changes, I'll certainly pass that along.
    Thanks CH. Your posts are an important part of my strategy. 22% last 12 months, currently split between CSI.

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  3. #6362

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So Coolhand I have to ask the question; since you are no longer a premium service, will you be posting your moves on AutoTracker?

    Thanks again for your insight on the markets, a calming voice in a stormy sea...
    Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass,
    it's about learning to dance in the rain.



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  5. #6363

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I think CH has been posting all along but if you are still a Premium Service Member they don't show up till way later. You don't have any control over that.
    Allocations as of COB Jul 17 : 100% G. | Retirement Date: Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%, 2012 2.75%,5Yr Avg 3.57%


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  7. #6364

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    So Coolhand I have to ask the question; since you are no longer a premium service, will you be posting your moves on AutoTracker?

    Thanks again for your insight on the markets, a calming voice in a stormy sea...
    I transferred my TSP funds to a self-directed account in June. I'm still working and contributing to TSP, but the account was zero'd out, so I don't have a ton to work with. I still post my TSP moves, however. I just don't make many moves there for the reason just stated. It's also problematic for me to post on the tracker while still working a day job. At one time it wasn't a problem, but my options were limited in this regard some time ago.

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  9. #6365

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    SPX.jpg
    DWCPF.jpg

    Both charts are showing what I am interpreting as basing action for the next leg higher. Momentum is weakening, but price isn't going anywhere. That's bullish. RSI is still overbought, but with breadth still hitting fresh all-time highs, so what? NAAIM came in less bullish, but there are zero bears taking short positions. So we have capitulation among the smart money in that group. They aren't as bullish as they've been, but they are still heavily long overall. The options are bullish for Friday. TRIN closed at a high reading, which is bullish for Friday as well.

    I'm looking higher for Friday. The intermediate term looks bullish too.

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  11. #6366

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I don't really understand some of the references that you use for bullish/bearish. e.g. NAAIM states https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

    It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future.
    Economic indicators seem to be more predictive (e.g. trends in GDP, manufacturing, employment etc.) Political issues like proposed tax policy, NK threat etc. are more unpredictable. Does NAAIM consider any of these factors?

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  13. #6367

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by evilanne View Post
    I don't really understand some of the references that you use for bullish/bearish. e.g. NAAIM states https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

    Economic indicators seem to be more predictive (e.g. trends in GDP, manufacturing, employment etc.) Political issues like proposed tax policy, NK threat etc. are more unpredictable. Does NAAIM consider any of these factors?
    I pay no attention to such nonsense. NAAIM is made up of professional money managers. They don't want to be exploited as such and so the disclaimer is issued.

    Economics is largely dead. This is a central bank economy (global). Economics is just a backdrop anymore. It's something for the media to use to justify a given economic narrative while the printing of money goes on endlessly.

    Read "Creature from Jekyll Island". There are plenty of other books and sources out there on this subject. The whole rigged system has been blown wide open by many others now.

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  15. #6368

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Roger that! Thanks for the reply.
    Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass,
    it's about learning to dance in the rain.



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  17. #6369

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bull market continues. The C and S funds didn't much last week, but the I fund tacked on some nice gains. The fact that the market refuses to sell down is bullish. My intermediate term system is showing some signals flipping negative, but those signals are backing into negative conditions as a result of sideways trading. They don't mean much in that context.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 continues to eke out gains, while the DWCPF tracks a sideways pattern. I think the chances of another spike to the upside is very real. NAAIM remains bullish (not as bullish as they've been) with zero bulls. The options went neutral as we head into Monday. Breadth is still rising and that is my main indicator. The market is being driven higher. Don't fight that.

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  19. #6370

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After a bout of strength to begin the week's trading session, the sellers stepped in and tempered those gains by mid-morning. The S&P 500 still edged up for another closing all-time high.

    The options are looking a bit bearish, so we might get some bleed over selling pressure on Tuesday, but as I've been saying for a little while now, this market is not acting like one that is poised to see significant selling pressure. There are plenty of bears in the polls, but not so much in the NAAIM survey. Breadth remains quite bullish.

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  21. #6371

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    My intermediate term system continues to deteriorate, though it remains in a positive condition. Breadth is still quite positive, but weakening of late.

    SPX.jpg

    The S&P 500 closed at yet another all-time on Tuesday. The moves are incremental, but steadily higher.

    DWCPF.jpg

    Small caps are putting a damper on any further upside on the DWCPF. So far, the pullback in this index has been modest.

    There is a chance that a bigger a downside move is coming; maybe even a pullback over several days. BUT, there is no overhead resistance on the charts and this remains a bull market. The danger of stepping aside while the market sorts out its next "big" move is missing another leg to the upside. I suspect that the tax cut narrative may be key to what the market does. As long as that narrative remains positive for middle class tax cuts, the downside is going to be limited. The last rally was due in large measure to a positive market view of those tax cuts.

    The options are neutral heading into Wednesday.

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  23. #6372

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    There is no change to my outlook this evening. Another closing all-time high for the S&P 500 is in the books. The DWCPF remains in a sideways pattern. It seems no one wants to miss that parabolic launch; assuming we eventually get one.

    The options are neutral heading into Thursday. We'll get another weekly read on NAAIM tomorrow.


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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
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