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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6313

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, I said I was leaning bearish, but not looking for a deep decline. Mostly, I noted the indicators were mixed, but that the recent rally may give up some of its gains. NAAIM was still technically bullish at the time, but showing signs of caution. Still, that caution only meant that some in this group were raising cash and not going short. For the week, the C and S funds were down 0.58% and 1.12% respectively. That's about what I would have expected.

    S&P 500.png

    We can see that the S&P 500 fell from its peak the previous Friday, but that price remained above the 50 dma (Tuesday saw a successful test of that key average).

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF was not able to hold its 50 dma, though it remains not far from it (bull flag?).

    The TSP Talk sentiment results were unchanged at the end of the week. NAAIM got a bit more bullish than the week prior. The options look bullish for Monday.

    Breadth remains bullish as does liquidity. My intermediate term system is still stubbornly negative. I note that TRIN/TRINQ are leaning bullish for Monday.

    I suspect that the selling pressure we saw last week simply worked off an overbought condition. That means this market may be poised for more upside action soon. I am looking higher for next week.

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  3. #6314

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, Irma caused no damage to my home, but I've been without power for about 36 hours till about an hour ago. Had problems with my solar system not providing power (limited) as a result of a grid failure. Need to call the install company about that.

    SPX.jpg

    Fresh all-time highs on the S&P 500! No overhead resistance.

    DWCPF.jpg

    The DWCPF hit a higher high, which was expected.

    The options look neutral for Wednesday. Breadth looks real bullish. My intermediate term system is still negative (TRINQ). Liquidity is high and banks are in rally mode after plunging in recent weeks.

    As you may recall, I was trying to buy another lot of TNA last week, but my buy levels were not hit, so I'm suffering with only about a 60% long position.

    I don't think this market has topped (short-term) yet, so I'm going to hold my long position for now.

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  5. #6315

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Maybe you were supplying your power to your neighbors because of an open grid. It may have been traveling through the lines where they buy back your extra power. Was your meter running backwards?
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  7. #6316

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No, I have two breakers (split system) and a main switch that break the connection between my panels and the grid. My inverters have a special feature that allows me to tap into 3K Watts of power per day in the event of grid failure. They are Sunny Boy inverters. I think I have the 3800 TL model. It won't power up much, but I can keep my frig and freezer going and perhaps charge my laptop as well.

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  9. #6317

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    No, I have two breakers (split system) and a main switch that break the connection between my panels and the grid. My inverters have a special feature that allows me to tap into 3K Watts of power per day in the event of grid failure. They are Sunny Boy inverters. I think I have the 3800 TL model. It won't power up much, but I can keep my frig and freezer going and perhaps charge my laptop as well.
    It sounds like they are making progress on better batteries. I was looking to have a 5.83kW system installed on my house but I had to make a choice between solar panels and getting my basement waterproofed. Hoping for the solar panels in the near future.
    May the force be with us.

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  11. #6318

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Sold my TNA position late in the morning for a nifty profit. Did not like the flat trading in the other indexes and felt that small caps may follow eventually. That doesn't necessarily mean a top is in, but I am okay taking profits and waiting for the next set-up.


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  13. #6319

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market wasn't particularly inspiring today, although small caps did well enough.

    S&P 500.png

    The S&P 500 eked out a fresh high. RSI leveled off.

    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF managed a very modest gain. Momentum is still rising, but RSI went flat.

    The options look neutral to modestly bearish for Thursday. Breadth is very bullish, but looking a bit toppy. The market may not have topped, but it largely paused today, so it may be time to bank some gains (I sold TNA today). NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  15. #6320

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    I've been prepping for the zombie apocalypse for a long time now.
    ha! i knew there was a reason i liked you!

    i've been prepping for some time now myself too, although a bit more of a lackadaisical approach. mostly just stackin lead, copper, silver, and gold. and making friends with local mormons. did you know every good mormon has a 2-year supply of food and water? my thinking is a) when the rapture hits and they get taken up to heaven then they won't need that stuff anymore, and b) if not then i will just convert - lord save my soul - plus i have other skills that might come in handy during the apocalypse and that is how i'm gonna pay for my supper. plan c) is to drive full tilt for leather to utah get the hell out of my way because i know how that place operates and it is full of good people. i'm a practical man.

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  17. #6321

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by burrocrat View Post
    ha! i knew there was a reason i liked you!

    i've been prepping for some time now myself too, although a bit more of a lackadaisical approach. mostly just stackin lead, copper, silver, and gold. and making friends with local mormons. did you know every good mormon has a 2-year supply of food and water? my thinking is a) when the rapture hits and they get taken up to heaven then they won't need that stuff anymore, and b) if not then i will just convert - lord save my soul - plus i have other skills that might come in handy during the apocalypse and that is how i'm gonna pay for my supper. plan c) is to drive full tilt for leather to utah get the hell out of my way because i know how that place operates and it is full of good people. i'm a practical man.
    This looks like a good segway into my favorite evangelical Christian bible teacher, Chuck Missler. Have lots of his DVDs on all things rapture and the second coming of Christ. Been studying his teachings quite a bit. He's not your typical bible teacher. Check out his bio if you aren't familiar with him.

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  19. #6322

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    This looks like a good segway into my favorite evangelical Christian bible teacher, Chuck Missler. Have lots of his DVDs on all things rapture and the second coming of Christ. Been studying his teachings quite a bit. He's not your typical bible teacher. Check out his bio if you aren't familiar with him.
    I like him too. He has more of an .... academic approach. Few are like him. [And few discuss the topics he covers.]
    Last edited by userque; 09-13-2017 at 11:00 PM.
    ___________________________________
    "He that cannot reason is a fool. He that will not is a bigot. He that dare not is a slave."
    - Andrew Carnegie

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  21. #6323

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market took a breather on Thursday. I'm sitting in cash right now after selling my TNA position yesterday. I'm looking for an opportunity to jump into TZA next, assuming the market is ready for a decent pullback.

    SPX.jpg

    Strength and momentum both turned down. The chart looking toppy at face value.

    DWCPF.jpg

    Momentum is hinting at turning down on the DWCPF. RSI is still largely flat.

    Tops can take a few days to build, so there's room for more upside, though the size of any more in that direction may not be inspiring. NAAIM remains bullish, but not overly so. They still are not taking any short interest in this market. That's a warning to the bears. Downside moves have been much harder to play then upside moves.
    Breadth is looking flat, but still positive. The A/D line on the NYSE is bullish. Overall, I am not thrilled with either the bullish or bearish case at the moment. I'm neutral heading into Friday.

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  23. #6324

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Took a 25% position in TZA earlier today. That doesn't necessarily mean a sell-off is imminent, but it does appear a top is being built. I may add to that position as the market dictates.

    Short positions are more risky than long ones in this market.

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