Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

[QUOTE}Cactus.....Thank you for the charts and Ichimoku school, Coolhand. You do an excellent job of keeping our interests up and teaching us new things. [/QUOTE]

I concur. CH, you are building a great case for your soon to come Premium Service, you sly devil... I think I'm hooked !!

There are a lot of short term plays that I am seeing across many charts this morning. Now keep in mind that liquidity is currently rising, and as long as that remains the case many stocks are going to be lifted higher. Seasonality remains a concern and I am taking that into consideration with my projections here. Again, these are short term projections. Everything is subject to change as the market plays out.

ABT.png

I mentioned ABT in my weekly analysis earlier in the week and thought that it might find short term support in the $33 area. So far, it has. MACD looks to be having a positive signal line cross, while RSI is gaining strength. The longer term trend is still down for this stock, but I am projecting price will at least reach resistance in the $35.5 area (arrow).

CLX.png

I mentioned CLX over a week ago as a short term play and currently price is indeed appreciating. Price is currently bumping up against initial resistance against the Kumo (cloud), but I am anticipating it will continue to rise to the downward trend line in the $85.5 area. MACD looks to be having a positive signal line cross and RSI is rising.

ENB.png

I've been talking about this ENB of late too. I said I was anticipating it would find short term support in the $40.5 area and so far it has. I am anticipating price will rise to the $42.75 area and perhaps above $43. MACD had a positive signal line cross recently and RSI looks to be gaining strength.

EXC.png

I had said that EXC was forming a symmetrical triangle and that it could break either way. It's still a bit early to be sure, but it may have broken out to the upside yesterday. I note that price is currently just under the Kumo (cloud), which is resistance, but that resistance will dissipate in another week. So if price can get above the $30.80 area, it could run to about $34 to fill that gap. MACD is flat however, as is RSI, but if they turn up I think there is some money to be made on this stock. Keep in mind what I said earlier about seasonality. October is only three weeks away and the current market rally may fade by the end of this month assuming liquidity remains supportive until then. Liquidity is key my current short term projections.

IBM.png

Price of IBM is bumping up against downward trend line resistance, but I suspect liquidity will propel it past that level and towards the Kumo. I am anticipating that price will reach $192.5 and possibly go as far as $195 in the short term. MACD had a positive signal line cross and RSI is turning up.

As I thought might happen, weakness is fleeting when underlying market support is kicked into high gear. I don't know how long it will last, but as long as it remains elevated I plan to enjoy the ride. One thing of note though, it's not lifting all boats the way it did earlier in the year.

Outstanding work, CH. Love your analysis and your viewpoint of the markets.

Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss

Outstanding work, CH. Love your analysis and your viewpoint of the markets.

That's means a lot to me knowing your skills in technical analysis John. Thanks for the thumbs up!

Jim

Great analysis. I'm also glad to see that you've incorporated ichimoku clouds as well. I've been a fan of that indicator type for years.

I found this link to also be useful in explaining ichimoku clouds: http://www.forex-books.com/articles/techan/ichimoku.pdf

Originally Posted by blueroadster

Great analysis. I'm also glad to see that you've incorporated ichimoku clouds as well. I've been a fan of that indicator type for years.

I found this link to also be useful in explaining ichimoku clouds: http://www.forex-books.com/articles/techan/ichimoku.pdf

Thanks br. I left some basic trend lines in the charts, but the ichimoku clouds add more depth to the analysis. It's a great tool.

Quick update from yesterday's posted charts:

ABT.png

Price for ABT had a nice move higher on volume yesterday. Momentum and RSI continue to look good. I'm still anticipating price will reach $35.5 for this move.

CLX.png

Price for Clorox moved a bit higher yesterday and it still looks poised to push higher. But it is now entering an area of resistance (the cloud). As long as the indicators remain supportive, I am still anticipating price will reach the $85.50 area.

ENB.png

Price for ENB fell back go its 9 day moving average yesterday and RSI turned down a bit. Momentum stalled. It may turn back up yet, but if it drops below its 9 day moving average that would not be a good sign for the short term.

EXC.png

Price of EXC fell back into the triangle area, which is okay, but it is still not know which way the breakout will occur. Price poked through the triangle yesterday, but that appears to be a false initial break. MACD and RSI remain flat. This is still just a watch.

IBM.png

IBM had a decisive move higher yesterday, blasting through the downward trend line and the base line. More resistance is overhead, but this is a bullish move. MACD and RSI are looking higher.

EXC.png



IBM.png

Price of IBM is approaching that lower resistance level (cloud). Momentum remains strong, but perhaps a bit extended. RSI remains strong, but may be slowing down. The cloud suggest price will peak soon and head lower again. Perhaps, but that is why we have breakouts. I left the technical down trend line drawn in the chart to show that price already broke out to the upside from that perspective. And with underlying support for the market at strong levels currently, there is a good chance for price to continue rising. But don't forget about the weak seasonality. At some point it may become a factor again. That's why I am looking at these plays as short term plays.

MCD.png

MCD is now reaching resistance. There isn't much resistance for price to punch through, but if it doesn't get above resistance, the Leading Span B line suggests price will fall.

CLX.png

After finding support along its 200 day moving average, CLX has pushed through the first area of resistance (Leading Span B), crossed the Standard Line (weak bullish cross) and has bounced off the Leading Span A Line (resistance) the past two trading days. MACD still shows upside momentum and RSI is positive, but price could turn back down soon if it can't break through resistance. Technically, CLK is in an intermediate term downtrend and seasonality is weak, so I'd be inclined to sell for a short term gain.

IBM.png

Price of IBM is now skirting along resistance at the Leading Span A line. The Turning line did cross the Standard line, which was mildly bullish and momentum is positive, RSI is hinting that it may turn down. IBM remains in an intermediate term downtrend and with seasonality being weak, I'd be looking to sell IBM for a short term gain here.

MCD.png

Price of MCD is hitting resistance in a thin area of the cloud. If it can close above it, that would be bullish, but I'd have to see the lagging line close above the cloud as well in order to confirm the break out. Momentum remains positive and RSI is still showing strength so this one may be worth sitting on to see if it can break out, but I'd not be overly patient given seasonality.

UL.png

Price of UL is not hitting technical resistance just below the cloud. Momentum is still positive and pointing higher as is RSI, but it's approaching both its 200 day moving average and resistance at the cloud. Like the other three stocks above, UL is still in an intermediate term downtrend in a weak seasonal period, so I'd not be too patient in taking profits, although I see no sign that price is turning just yet.

At yesterday's close, our auto-tracker is now showing a total stock allocation of 40.2%. We are still dropping our exposure. Statistically, when that exposure level drops below 40% the market tends to go higher. We are probably close enough to be wary of a big move to the upside. Underlying market support has not gone away either.