Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by coolhand

Right now, according to my numbers, the herd is at 39.32%. I don't include the L funds in my calculations, but I don't see that as an issue since they aren't used that much by the folks on the tracker. On another note, I've also compiled a running total of how the market fared when the herd was under 50%. It's not as impressive as being under 40%, but it was still positive overall for the bulls. I didn't see a whole lot of dip buying today by folks on the auto-tracker, so I don't think we'll see much movement in stock allocations. I'm thinking this market is likely to find its feet again.

Ocean's List shows a bullish uptick of .3%, with the herd now at 40.37%. I also am only looking at C,S, & I funds. We've discussed in the past how your numbers differ slightly - I think the reason is that you filter out the "Hidden" members, while Ocean's doesn't. Or something like that. Anyway, I know you didn't intend 40% as a magic number that would immediately cause a turn in the market. I just found it interesting that - using the Ocean's List - it did. For a day at least.

Originally Posted by Sensei

Ocean's List shows a bullish uptick of .3%, with the herd now at 40.37%. I also am only looking at C,S, & I funds. We've discussed in the past how your numbers differ slightly - I think the reason is that you filter out the "Hidden" members, while Ocean's doesn't. Or something like that. Anyway, I know you didn't intend 40% as a magic number that would immediately cause a turn in the market. I just found it interesting that - using the Ocean's List - it did. For a day at least.

I see this as a weekly signal since that's how I capture and assimilate the data. I use this signal to provide overall market context with other indicators. It helps me assess risk and market direction. I don't filter out "hidden" members. I use every member on the tracker, but I do filter out the funds themselves, which are embedded in the tracker, along with the sentiment survey. With almost 1,100 members being tracked now, small variations aren't particularly meaningful. If Ocean uses a metric that captures the L funds in his calculations, that would certainly help explain the difference between our numbers.

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

I've been waiting for a buying opportunity in Westar Energy(WR). It's down over 2% today, but needs to drop a lot more for me to buy. It pays a nice 4% dividend.

Coming off what looks like a head and shoulders top, WR is down to around 32, from a high around 35. I might be a buyer around 30.

Originally Posted by coolhand

I don't filter out "hidden" members. I use every member on the tracker, but I do filter out the funds themselves, which are embedded in the tracker, along with the sentiment survey.

Do you filter out the systems Like Total US Market, LMBF Method, etc?

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

Coming off what looks like a head and shoulders top, WR is down to around 32, from a high around 35. I might be a buyer around 30.

It looks promising. There's a number of others that I'm watching that are look promising too, but there appears to be some sector rotation in progress, so I have to be careful with what I select to buy right now.

Originally Posted by Cactus

Do you filter out the systems Like Total US Market, LMBF Method, etc?

If it's a highlighted item in the autotracker, I take it out. I don't think LMBF method is one that I remove. Not sure about the other. I make assumptions that entries like LMBF method are an actual account someone is using. I don't think there are many entries like this. If we're talking about less than 5 entries like this, it won't affect the end results enough to be very meaningful. Perfection is not required. Not with almost 1100 line items.

Originally Posted by coolhand

There's a number of others that I'm watching that are look promising too, but there appears to be some sector rotation in progress, so I have to be careful with what I select to buy right now.

Please post the ones you think look promising, when you get a chance.

Here's four stocks that I'm watching:

DUK.png

Duke Energy Corp., like most of the rest of the utilities sector, has been seeing weakness since early May. It's a company I'd like to own, but I'm not sure this sector has seen a bottom yet. MACD is decidedly negative and RSI is almost in oversold territory. One possibly positive sign is the tail on today's candlestick. Many stocks ended up with one today and that could be a sign that at least a short term bottom is near. But until MACD and RSI turn higher, I'd wait for any entry here. It pays a 4.36% divy at the moment, but the date of record was last week, so one would not be entitled to a divy for another 3 months or so. But I want to stress that there may be rotation out of the utility sector, so even if it was to bounce for a few days, it may not last long.

PEG.png

Public Service Enterprise was a stock I owned earlier this year. After picking up about a 15% gain, I let it go for better opportunities. Now it's starting to look attractive again. It too is showing a long tail on today's candlestick. But MACD and RSI have not turned yet, so it's not a buy at this time, but it bears watching. This one pays a 4.2% divy and it's ex-dividend date is June 7th, so it's not too late to qualify for the next dividend payout if it can show signs of bottoming soon.

TWO.png

Two Harbors Investment Corp. is a Real Estate operations company and pays a hefty 11.01% divy at the moment. Note the very long tail on today's candlestick. It looks like it bounced off support in the high $10 area and not far from the 200 dma. MACD and RSI have not turned here either, but they aren't as negative as the previous two stocks above.

SO.png

I still own this one. Like Duke Energy, Southern Company has been seeing weakness for several weeks. The blue line is an area of support. Like the other stocks, MACD and RSI have not turned higher yet, so it's still only a watch. But it's also a utility sector stock, so I'm mindful that more weakness may yet be coming. SO pays a 4.44% dividend currently.

Thanks for providing your analysis... Learning a lot from you.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Thanks for providing your analysis... Learning a lot from you.

Thanks DBA. I actually had another fund that I'm calling a buy right now, but overlooked it yesterday when I posted the other charts.

FAX.png

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Common is a Closed End Fund that targets the Australian and Asian Fixed-Income markets. It is currently trading at a modest discount to its Net Asset Value. I've made two purchases of this fund in the past few days. I think there's a good potential for price appreciation and it throws off an attractive 5.75% monthly dividend. If you buy this fund by 29 May (ex-dividend date) and hold it past its date of record (31 May) you'll qualify for its next dividend payout, scheduled for 14 June. RSI and MACD appear to be turning higher since its recent sell-off a couple weeks ago.

Last week I mentioned that I was watching both DUK and SO in the utilities sector for possible entry points. But I cautioned that there was rotation out of this sector and I would not be a buyer at that time. Both DUK and SO are rallying today, as are many other companies in this sector. Let's look at a chart of the sector itself, in this case XLU, which is a SPDR on the NYSE. Using Fibonacci retracements, I see that this sector has tagged the 61.8% retracement line, which is a deep, short term retracement (from early January price levels) and now appears to be turning back up. RSI dipped briefly into oversold territory and now is pointing higher (but still negative). MACD is still quite negative and has not actually turned.

XLU.png

The stock market is going through some kind of transition so I cannot be sure if the utilities sector is actually bottoming. It may be, but I'm not inclined to think these companies are going to recapture their highs of the year anytime soon. Perhaps this SPDR gets back to its 50 dma. That's a reasonable short term target. Of course each individual company's chart will be a bit different, but if this sector is seeing at least some short support, I'd expect most companies to be participating in it.