Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good evening

I'm not trying to throw some shade here, but I would like to point out IMHO Tuesday is the best day to exit (not enter)

Posted from my Week 5 Blog
2016 - Week 05 - Daily - DoW.png

Good evening

I don't post charts like this very often because they are difficult to explain.

This a COMPOUNDED chart for Feb, meaning for each year, the returns for each day is added to the next.

1) BAR CHART: Take the compounded average of the top/bottom 5 days, for each trading day across the past 41 years and this gives you the outer edge of potential returns.
2) AREA CHART: Measures the compounded all up/down returns, showing a typical month's tips & dips.
3) The blue line is where we are within Feb 2016, showing we are on the outer edge of the statistical dip.

Perhaps you'll find it useful as a means to understand where we are within the bearish part of the historical stats...or not

2016-06-D-MISC2.png

There is nothing wrong with your browser. Do not attempt to adjust the URL. We are controlling transmission. We can increase the brightness, we can adjust the contrast. We can reduce the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. For the next hour, sit quietly and JTH will control all that you see and hear. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... The Market's Outer Limits

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

There is nothing wrong with your browser. Do not attempt to adjust the URL. We are controlling transmission. We can increase the brightness, we can adjust the contrast. We can reduce the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. For the next hour, sit quietly and JTH will control all that you see and hear. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... The Market's Outer Limits

Here's the latest incarnation of the chart.

Based on historical data vs. 2016's current path, I'd estimate we'll close in the bottom of zone C at -3.81%

2016-06-D-MISC3.png

So which one of you is gonna jump in first...

OK then..so..we can only go up from here (statistically!!) LOL Everyone in the POOL!!!

Originally Posted by JTH

So which one of you is gonna jump in first...

Well...that's real Purdy, but I don't understand too well. Me...I just go to a certain thread,

Looks like preliminary bottom-fishing/knife-catching with no conviction. I'm staying out.

And do the opposite!

It ain't over until it's over, Calling a Bottom is way to hard for me to try doing that again.

JTH: Are you using regression analysis to plot the chart? That is really nice. Thanks.

FS

Thanks

1) Take the 786 closes from Feb (Last 41 years)
2) Compound them by trading day per each year
3) Filter them by Top/Bottom categories, then average those out

Here's the latest version, showing we are under the Bottom 13% over the past 41 years (at its current position)

2016-06-D-MISC4.png

Originally Posted by JTH

So which one of you is gonna jump in first...

Me, IFT EoB Today from 100G to 100C