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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #8245

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    Default Re: 4th QUARTER

    S&P 500 testing the top of the yellow-boxed trading range

    001.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #8246

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    Default Re: 4th QUARTER

    JTH, what are the JTH-ESD moves based on?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  5. #8247

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    Default Re: 4th QUARTER

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    JTH, what are the JTH-ESD moves based on?
    Evolving Statistical Data, it does not look at tops of bottoms, it follows seasonal data
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  7. #8248

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    At 3.26%, week 40 is now in the books, 2nd best over past 12 years, 7th best over past 66 years

    2015 - Wk - 40.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  9. #8249

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    Default Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

    From my Blog Trading the Stats: Week 41

    Useless Data (strength follows strength)
    ___
    Over the past 788 months, the average monthly return is .69%
    Like this month, from 1950, there have only been 16 months which have started out with trading days 1-3 up, 4th day down, and days 5-7 up
    Of those 16 occasions, 15 closed positive, with a total average monthly return of 4.18%
    The one month which did close down was -.10%

    2015 - Wk 41 - MISC.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #8250

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    Default Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

    Not much action today
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #8251

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    Default Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

    TRAN droppin like a rock

    sc.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  15. #8252

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    Default Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    TRAN droppin like a rock
    Precursor action?

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  17. #8253

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    Default Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Precursor action?
    I love the Tranny, she speaks the truth (even when the other indexes refuse to listen)

    Side-by-side YTD performance of SPX/TRAN shows us just how far in advance there was trouble brewing in the markets

    sc.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats


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  19. #8254

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    Default Re: 4th QUARTER

    If you click on the PNF Links, you will see that in relation to the S&P 500, the other Indexs show less strength over the past 10 columns.

    While the S&P 500 has created spread double top within the yellow box, the other indexes have not reached those comparative levels.

    Bottom line, when large caps lead the markets, is it really a legitimate rally?

    W4500/TRAN/NASDAQ 100

    Untitled.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  21. #8255

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    Default Re: 4th QUARTER

    Thanks JTH. A great question.

    One of the reasons I love this forum is because there are so many "rationale" minds providing their independent viewpoint and they are all worth considering. The one thing I am learning is that you have to separate reality from emotion. For example, someone recently wrote that "We can find plenty of fault in the FED but investors and fund managers just as much. The writing is everywhere and has been visible for a long time. Moreover the Feds history of creating and mismanaging bubbles is well documented and recent at that. So to place so much faith in the FED or other central bankers or that the government of China is truthful about their data or that corporate earnings are good (when clearly they are not; and that’s with the aid of massive buyback mind you) is merely a reflection of greed and how that greed makes you completely unintelligent in your positive macro stance. Then again maybe investors and managers are just plain stupid."

    The benefit of this forum is that we're not trying to sell anything to anyone. We're all just trying to have adequate awareness to support our investment decisions and make an honest buck. The comments and analysis provided here are worth the investment of time, and my sincere appreciation to you, and the many others who work to help provide meaningful data to make good decisions.

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  23. #8256

    Default Re: PRE VS. POST IFT

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I love the Tranny, she speaks the truth (even when the other indexes refuse to listen)

    Side-by-side YTD performance of SPX/TRAN shows us just how far in advance there was trouble brewing in the markets

    sc.png
    Just enuff warning to cut an IFT (most of the tyme!)

    Yea, Im still looking for a low entry price!!

    That, or catastrophic crash -
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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